Economist, Centennial Asia Advisors

Jason Tan

Economist

Centennial Asia Advisors

At Centennial Asia Advisors, we tell it like it is. We have no vested interests, no need for a China wall, and no reason to skew our outlook any other way. With over 30 years experience covering Asia’s political economy, you can be sure our conclusions and analyses are based on the unadulterated facts. Through years of fine-tuning our research methodologies, we deliver a quality of macroeconomic analysis few other houses can match.

Centennial Asia Advisors is an independent research and advisory firm that works with governments, multilateral institutions, financial firms and leading MNCs.

Economic Policy and Strategic Advisors

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>A recovery in global demand led by the G3 advanced economies have fed into export upturns in trade-focused East Asian economies. Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and Hong Kong have seen the renewed vigour in global trade leading to more robust growth.</li><li>Furthermore, other Asian countries, such as those in Southeast Asia, will also see economic expansion being underpinned by an export upswing, chiefly in electronics and other tech components.</li></ul>

A recovery in global demand led by the G3 advanced economies have fed into export upturns in trade-focused East Asian economies. Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and Hong Kong have seen the renewed vigour in global trade leading to more robust growth.Furthermore, other Asian countries, such as those in Southeast Asia, will also see economic expansion being underpinned by an export upswing, chiefly in electronics and other tech components.

Trade Intensity Leading to Asian Expansion

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Property market shows signs of stabilisation: Resale volumes for HDB (public sector) flats rose for the second year running, growing 7.8% in 2016. Resale prices dipped by just 0.1% in 2016. Private property prices fell 3.1%, the slowest rate of decline in the three-year downcycle so far.</li>
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Monetary indicators stabilising as well: Loan growth has recovered, rising 1.1% m/m in Dec 16, supported by growth in key consumer and business segments.</li>
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Industrial production rebounded3% y/y in Dec 16, soaring…</li>
</ul>



Property market shows signs of stabilisation: Resale volumes for HDB (public sector) flats rose for the second year running, growing 7.8% in 2016. Resale prices dipped by just 0.1% in 2016. Private property prices fell 3.1%, the slowest rate of decline in the three-year downcycle so far.

Monetary indicators stabilising as well: Loan growth has recovered, rising 1.1% m/m in Dec 16, supported by growth in key consumer and business segments.

Industrial production rebounded3% y/y in Dec 16, soaring…


Singapore: Export-Led Cyclical Upturn but Policy Key to Long-Term Vibrancy

Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

REAL-Economics.com

Singapore reported 21.3% YoY growth in manufacturing output in December 2016, implying 11.5% YoY growth in 4Q 2016 (the best quarterly growth since 1Q 2011). This is in line with our non-consensus call (see for instance <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/why-singapore-is-beating-the-gloomy-consensus" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:6703">Why Singapore Is Beating the Gloomy Consensus</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/singapore-robust-4q-2016-but" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:7859">Singapore: Robust 4Q 2016, But...</a>), and implies that real GDP growth for 4Q 2016 will need to be revised up to 3% YoY (from the Advance estimate of 1.8% YoY, which was based on an official estimate of 6.5% YoY growth in…

Singapore reported 21.3% YoY growth in manufacturing output in December 2016, implying 11.5% YoY growth in 4Q 2016 (the best quarterly growth since 1Q 2011). This is in line with our non-consensus call (see for instance Why Singapore Is Beating the Gloomy Consensus and Singapore: Robust 4Q 2016, But...), and implies that real GDP growth for 4Q 2016 will need to be revised up to 3% YoY (from the Advance estimate of 1.8% YoY, which was based on an official estimate of 6.5% YoY growth in…

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China released a White Paper detailing its policy on security cooperation in the Asia-Pacific. China seeks to establish a “multi-layered, comprehensive and diversified” consensus to underpin it taking on greater responsibilities. China warned against provocative actions in the South China Sea and cautioned small- and medium-sized countries from taking sides with the larger countries.</li>
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China’s Liaoning aircraft carrier sailed into the Taiwan Strait for the first time ever, prompting Taiwan to put…</li>
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China released a White Paper detailing its policy on security cooperation in the Asia-Pacific. China seeks to establish a “multi-layered, comprehensive and diversified” consensus to underpin it taking on greater responsibilities. China warned against provocative actions in the South China Sea and cautioned small- and medium-sized countries from taking sides with the larger countries.

China’s Liaoning aircraft carrier sailed into the Taiwan Strait for the first time ever, prompting Taiwan to put…


China Seeks to Reshape the Asia-Pacific Security Order

Investing in high growth Asian frontier economies., Asia Frontier Capital

Scott Osheroff

Investing in high growth Asian frontier economies.

Asia Frontier Capital

Asia Frontier Capital Ltd. is a pioneering fund management company based in Hong Kong that specializes in investing in high growth Asian frontier economies by managing the AFC Asia Frontier Fund , AFC Iraq Fund and the AFC Vietnam Fund.

The AFC Asia Frontier Fund invests in public equities of Asian frontier countries that are seeing increasing consumption due to favorable demographic trends, rising incomes and high GDP growth. The fund invests in listed equities of companies that have their principal business activities in Bangladesh, Bhutan, Cambodia, Iraq, Laos, Maldives, Mongolia, Myanmar (Burma), Nepal, Pakistan, Papua New Guinea, Sri Lanka and Vietnam. The AFC Asia Frontier Fund is positioned to take advantage of the continuing economic shifts in these countries and offers high returns combined with significant diversification opportunities. This fund is directed by the founder and CEO of Asia Frontier Capital, Thomas Hugger, who has been investing in frontier markets across Asia and Africa for more than 20 years.

The AFC Iraq Fund was launched on the 26th June 2015 and aims to achieve long-term capital appreciation for investors by capturing value and growth potential in the post conflict high-growth & resource rich Iraq market. The fund emphasises long term investment horizon to truly capture the opportunity in Iraq. The fund's investable universe consists of locally listed companies that have their principal business activities in Iraq as well as foreign listed companies that have the majority of the business in Iraq as a whole including the prosperous Kurdish Region of Iraq (KRI). The AFC Iraq Fund offers access to investments in post conflict recovery potential of Iraq, including the KRI, and/or stability in its territory. The AFC Iraq Fund is managed by Asia Frontier Capital (Iraq) Limited, Cayman Islands under the executive leadership team of Thomas Hugger (CEO & Fund Manager) and Ahmed Tabaqchali (CIO) who have more than 47 years of investment experience as well as an extensive background covering global, emerging, frontier and MENA markets.

The AFC Vietnam Fund invests exclusively in listed Vietnamese equities to capture value in growth companies with a focus on the small to medium size companies. This market segment offers a unique investment opportunity as the valuation gap between large- and small-cap stocks in Vietnam is presently much wider than in comparable neighboring markets and the valuations are significantly depressed versus their regional peers. The fund adopts a fundamental-quantitative approach and employs an in-house earnings model to identify attractive companies where we see high growth opportunities. In conjunction with targeting the maximum upside potential the portfolio has been structured to mitigate corporate government and liquidity risks. The fund invests in a diversified portfolio of 70-90 attractively valued companies to carefully control concentration risk.  This approach allows the fund to sell, or buy, positions without having a significant market impact. The fund is directed under the executive leadership of Thomas Hugger and Andreas Vogelsanger who have more than 50 years combined experience managing investments in frontier markets, Asia and around the world.

For more information about the fund, management team and investment strategy please contact us at info@asiafrontiercapital.com.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Though 2017 has started on an uncertain note surrounding the policies of the new US President, our conviction in the long-term story of Asian frontier markets is not diminished as these countries have very favourable demographics backed by rising disposable incomes, are going through political reform, and are benefitting from increased foreign investment due to lower wages relative to China. Further, companies in the Asian frontier markets are still relatively under-researched relative to larger emerging markets and therefore offer convincing long term opportunities.

Though 2017 has started on an uncertain note surrounding the policies of the new US President, our conviction in the long-term story of Asian frontier markets is not diminished as these countries have very favourable demographics backed by rising disposable incomes, are going through political reform, and are benefitting from increased foreign investment due to lower wages relative to China. Further, companies in the Asian frontier markets are still relatively under-researched relative to larger emerging markets and therefore offer convincing long term opportunities.

AFC Asia Frontier Fund – 2016 Review and 2017 Outlook

United States

iShares MSCI Singapore ETF is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA. The ETF's objective seeks to provide investment results that correspond to the performance of the Singaporean market, as measured by the MSCI Singapore 25/50 Index. The ETF invests in a representative sample of index stocks using a "portfolio sampling" technique. SGX Trading Name: IS MSCI SIN 100US$

iShares MSCI Singapore ETF (EWS US)

Trade Intensity Leading to Asian Expansion

A recovery in global demand led by the G3 advanced economies have fed into export upturns in trade-focused East Asian economies. Japan, South...

Jason Tan

Singapore: Export-Led Cyclical Upturn but Policy Key to Long-Term Vibrancy

Property market shows signs of stabilisation: Resale volumes for HDB (public sector) flats rose for the second year running, growing 7.8% in...

Jason Tan

Singapore: Robust 4Q 2016 in the Bag

Singapore reported 21.3% YoY growth in manufacturing output in December 2016, implying 11.5% YoY growth in 4Q 2016 (the best quarterly growth since...

Prasenjit K. Basu

China Seeks to Reshape the Asia-Pacific Security Order

China released a White Paper detailing its policy on security cooperation in the Asia-Pacific. China seeks to establish a “multi-layered,...

Jason Tan

AFC Asia Frontier Fund – 2016 Review and 2017 Outlook

Though 2017 has started on an uncertain note surrounding the policies of the new US President, our conviction in the long-term story of Asian...

Asia Frontier Capital