Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist, Clifton Derivatives

John Ley

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist

Clifton Derivatives

Independent derivative and volatility research firm focusing on events/catalysts, earnings, relative value and cross asset volatility strategies.

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>A renewed tariff threat from Trump sparked a sharp, sell-off across North American Equity markets.</li>
<li>The sell off was broad based and accordingly we look at the performance of Asian Index ETF’s that trade in North America to help prepare for Monday’s price action.</li>
<li>Implied volatility, price and option volume are displayed for each symbol.</li>
</ul>


A renewed tariff threat from Trump sparked a sharp, sell-off across North American Equity markets.
The sell off was broad based and accordingly we look at the performance of Asian Index ETF’s that trade in North America to help prepare for Monday’s price action.
Implied volatility, price and option volume are displayed for each symbol.


Market Sell-Off (Oct 10): How Asian Index ETFs Responded to Market Slide

Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 / Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>Kospi’s rally has extended seven months and now shows signs of fatigue, trading with speculative assets and now sharply diverging.</li>
<li>Implied volatility is elevated, with short-term measures above the 90th percentile on multiple lookbacks.</li>
<li>We recommend an option trade and hedge given the current setup.</li>
</ul>


Kospi’s rally has extended seven months and now shows signs of fatigue, trading with speculative assets and now sharply diverging.
Implied volatility is elevated, with short-term measures above the 90th percentile on multiple lookbacks.
We recommend an option trade and hedge given the current setup.


Kospi: Rising Volatility and Early Warnings From a Seven-Month Surge

Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

<ul>
<li>
Context: The Bank of Korea will announce its rate decision on July 10, 2025. This Insight compares market and option-implied expectations with historical <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-stock-exchange-kospi-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26021:1" rel="noopener">KOSPI 200</a> reactions.</li>
<li>
Highlights: While average market reactions to BoK moves are historically muted, options are pricing in elevated volatility. Two event-driven strategies are discussed.</li>
<li>
Why Read: This Insight offers actionable, volatility-focused options strategies grounded in empirical data and current pricing—timely for traders seeking to monetize elevated volatility ahead of central bank and geopolitical events.</li>
</ul>



Context: The Bank of Korea will announce its rate decision on July 10, 2025. This Insight compares market and option-implied expectations with historical KOSPI 200 reactions.

Highlights: While average market reactions to BoK moves are historically muted, options are pricing in elevated volatility. Two event-driven strategies are discussed.

Why Read: This Insight offers actionable, volatility-focused options strategies grounded in empirical data and current pricing—timely for traders seeking to monetize elevated volatility ahead of central bank and geopolitical events.


KOSPI 200: Event-Driven Strategies into the July 10 BoK Decision

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).</li>
<li>We will maintain our bullish view as long as market dynamics remain healthy and the SPX and ACWI-US are above 5700-5785 and $120-$121 (up from 5500 and $115).</li>
<li>We are upgrading Korea(KOSPI) to overweight; we discussed May 30 several Financials and other stocks to buy. KOSPI has exploded higher since, and is now reversing its 2-year RS downtrend.</li>
</ul>


We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).
We will maintain our bullish view as long as market dynamics remain healthy and the SPX and ACWI-US are above 5700-5785 and $120-$121 (up from 5500 and $115).
We are upgrading Korea(KOSPI) to overweight; we discussed May 30 several Financials and other stocks to buy. KOSPI has exploded higher since, and is now reversing its 2-year RS downtrend.


Upgrading Korea to Overweight; MSCI ACWI and Emerging Market Breakouts

<ul>
<li>Volatility percentiles are flashing red, and we explore what recent price action could signal for the week ahead.</li>
<li>Implied vol rose meaningfully, approaching historical extremes, with more pressure likely as the week begins.</li>
<li>Options hedge adjustments are discussed following a strong move in both price and vol.</li>
</ul>


Volatility percentiles are flashing red, and we explore what recent price action could signal for the week ahead.
Implied vol rose meaningfully, approaching historical extremes, with more pressure likely as the week begins.
Options hedge adjustments are discussed following a strong move in both price and vol.


Kospi Index Options Weekly (Mar 31 – Apr 4): Rising Vol, Local and Global Political Undercurrents

South Korea

iShares MSCI South Korea ETF is an exchange traded fund incorporated in the USA. The ETF tracks the performance of the MSCI Korea 25-50 USD Index. The fund holds companies of all market caps which are primarily traded on the Korean exchange. The ETF's holdings are primarily focused in the consumer discretionary, financial and information technology sectors.

iShares MSCI South Korea ETF (EWY US)

Market Sell-Off (Oct 10): How Asian Index ETFs Responded to Market Slide

The powerful surge in the silver price on Friday, which propelled it to new multi-year highs, has drawn significant market attention to placing...

John Ley

Kospi: Rising Volatility and Early Warnings From a Seven-Month Surge

Kospi’s seven-month rally is showing strain, with volatility rising and speculative behavior resembling patterns seen near prior peaks. A trade and...

John Ley

KOSPI 200: Event-Driven Strategies into the July 10 BoK Decision

Ahead of the Bank of Korea’s July 10 rate decision, option pricing implies larger-than-usual index moves. This Insight outlines two event-driven...

Gaudenz Schneider

Upgrading Korea to Overweight; MSCI ACWI and Emerging Market Breakouts

MSCI $ACWI and Emerging Market $EEM Breakouts; Upgrading Korea $EWY to Overweight; Downgrading Broad Europe, but staying Overweight Germany,...

Vermilion Research

Kospi Index Options Weekly (Mar 31 – Apr 4): Rising Vol, Local and Global Political Undercurrents

We discuss how trading could unfold on Monday, the adjustment of a hedge recommendation and why recent price action hardens our conviction that...

John Ley