Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Having followed North Korea for more than 20+ years, the announcement over the weekend that China will stop importing coal from North Korea from February 19th to end of this year is probably one of the most pivotal events that I have seen that could snowball into eventually toppling the North Korean regime. Coal is North Korea's biggest export product. In 2015, North Korea's exports to China totaled US$2.48 billion, of which coal represented 42%.Many traders and investors in South Korean…

Having followed North Korea for more than 20+ years, the announcement over the weekend that China will stop importing coal from North Korea from February 19th to end of this year is probably one of the most pivotal events that I have seen that could snowball into eventually toppling the North Korean regime. Coal is North Korea's biggest export product. In 2015, North Korea's exports to China totaled US$2.48 billion, of which coal represented 42%.Many traders and investors in South Korean…

No Coal Exports from North Korea to China in 2017 - Turning Off the Money Spigot to North Korea?

Global Asset Allocation, Politics & Governance, Ecstrat

John-Paul Smith

Global Asset Allocation, Politics & Governance

Ecstrat

Ecstrat is a consultancy advising on asset allocation between global equity markets, with a focus on the intersection of governments, geopolitics, governance and markets.
 
Over the past few years and more especially since the Great Financial Crisis (GFC), investors have become more focused on short-term market movements and real-time returns and have consequently neglected the analysis of the underlying structural themes that underpin longer term performance.
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More specifically we believe that the evolution of governance-based relationships between investors, controlling shareholders, labour and the state is one of the primary determinants of both relative and absolute performance between individual equity markets.
 
We will endeavour to provide investors with some of the context surrounding governance-related issues which encompass many different disciplines including history, economics and political science, as well as the financial metrics which are the most obvious manifestation of the structural characteristics of each market.
 
We will pay particular attention to the shifts and potential inflection points for governance in individual markets as these are often the best lead indicators for both economic and market performance.

Cross Asset Strategy

Korea underperformed the main EM benchmark in 2016, but only by a very marginal amount. The main features of the market were the underperformance of mid and especially smaller company shares, with the MSCI Korea Small Cap index down by 15.5%, a full 25 percentage points lower than the MSCI Korea Index, this being one of my few successful predictions made at the start of 2016. The strong performance of the main market despite a year of relatively sluggish growth accompanied by some real distress…

Korea underperformed the main EM benchmark in 2016, but only by a very marginal amount. The main features of the market were the underperformance of mid and especially smaller company shares, with the MSCI Korea Small Cap index down by 15.5%, a full 25 percentage points lower than the MSCI Korea Index, this being one of my few successful predictions made at the start of 2016. The strong performance of the main market despite a year of relatively sluggish growth accompanied by some real distress…

Korea: Chaebol Under Pressure but Who Will Benefit? (Part 4 of 7)

Asia Economist and CEO, Centennial Asia Advisors

Manu Bhaskaran

Asia Economist and CEO

Centennial Asia Advisors

At Centennial Asia Advisors, we tell it like it is. We have no vested interests, no need for a China wall, and no reason to skew our outlook any other way. With over 30 years experience covering Asia’s political economy, you can be sure our conclusions and analyses are based on the unadulterated facts. Through years of fine-tuning our research methodologies, we deliver a quality of macroeconomic analysis few other houses can match.

Centennial Asia Advisors is an independent research and advisory firm that works with governments, multilateral institutions, financial firms and leading MNCs.

Economic Policy and Strategic Advisors

Macroeconomics

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<li>
Trump stepped back from direct confrontation with China: In his phone call with Chinese President Xi, Trump acceded to China’s request to honour the longstanding “One China” policy, which he had appeared to question in his tweets. But the potential downside risks in the bilateral relationship were made clear by reports of an “unsafe” interaction between a Chinese surveillance plane and a US Navy P-3C Orion surveillance aircraft on the same day.</li>
<li>
North Korean missile test not a huge deal: The test…</li>
</ul>



Trump stepped back from direct confrontation with China: In his phone call with Chinese President Xi, Trump acceded to China’s request to honour the longstanding “One China” policy, which he had appeared to question in his tweets. But the potential downside risks in the bilateral relationship were made clear by reports of an “unsafe” interaction between a Chinese surveillance plane and a US Navy P-3C Orion surveillance aircraft on the same day.

North Korean missile test not a huge deal: The test…


Geopolitics: Trump Refines Approach to China

Investing in high growth Asian frontier economies., Asia Frontier Capital

Scott Osheroff

Investing in high growth Asian frontier economies.

Asia Frontier Capital

Asia Frontier Capital Ltd. is a pioneering fund management company based in Hong Kong that specializes in investing in high growth Asian frontier economies by managing the AFC Asia Frontier Fund , AFC Iraq Fund and the AFC Vietnam Fund.

The AFC Asia Frontier Fund invests in public equities of Asian frontier countries that are seeing increasing consumption due to favorable demographic trends, rising incomes and high GDP growth. The fund invests in listed equities of companies that have their principal business activities in Bangladesh, Bhutan, Cambodia, Iraq, Laos, Maldives, Mongolia, Myanmar (Burma), Nepal, Pakistan, Papua New Guinea, Sri Lanka and Vietnam. The AFC Asia Frontier Fund is positioned to take advantage of the continuing economic shifts in these countries and offers high returns combined with significant diversification opportunities. This fund is directed by the founder and CEO of Asia Frontier Capital, Thomas Hugger, who has been investing in frontier markets across Asia and Africa for more than 20 years.

The AFC Iraq Fund was launched on the 26th June 2015 and aims to achieve long-term capital appreciation for investors by capturing value and growth potential in the post conflict high-growth & resource rich Iraq market. The fund emphasises long term investment horizon to truly capture the opportunity in Iraq. The fund's investable universe consists of locally listed companies that have their principal business activities in Iraq as well as foreign listed companies that have the majority of the business in Iraq as a whole including the prosperous Kurdish Region of Iraq (KRI). The AFC Iraq Fund offers access to investments in post conflict recovery potential of Iraq, including the KRI, and/or stability in its territory. The AFC Iraq Fund is managed by Asia Frontier Capital (Iraq) Limited, Cayman Islands under the executive leadership team of Thomas Hugger (CEO & Fund Manager) and Ahmed Tabaqchali (CIO) who have more than 47 years of investment experience as well as an extensive background covering global, emerging, frontier and MENA markets.

The AFC Vietnam Fund invests exclusively in listed Vietnamese equities to capture value in growth companies with a focus on the small to medium size companies. This market segment offers a unique investment opportunity as the valuation gap between large- and small-cap stocks in Vietnam is presently much wider than in comparable neighboring markets and the valuations are significantly depressed versus their regional peers. The fund adopts a fundamental-quantitative approach and employs an in-house earnings model to identify attractive companies where we see high growth opportunities. In conjunction with targeting the maximum upside potential the portfolio has been structured to mitigate corporate government and liquidity risks. The fund invests in a diversified portfolio of 70-90 attractively valued companies to carefully control concentration risk.  This approach allows the fund to sell, or buy, positions without having a significant market impact. The fund is directed under the executive leadership of Thomas Hugger and Andreas Vogelsanger who have more than 50 years combined experience managing investments in frontier markets, Asia and around the world.

For more information about the fund, management team and investment strategy please contact us at info@asiafrontiercapital.com.

In line with our process of being on the ground in the countries we invest in, Scott Osheroff, Analyst at Asia Frontier Capital, travelled to Myanmar and conducted meetings with portfolio companies and other companies on our shortlist. The photos in this article are all by AFC.

In line with our process of being on the ground in the countries we invest in, Scott Osheroff, Analyst at Asia Frontier Capital, travelled to Myanmar and conducted meetings with portfolio companies and other companies on our shortlist. The photos in this article are all by AFC.

Economist, Centennial Asia Advisors

Jason Tan

Economist

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<li>
Industrial production ended the year on a strong note, growing 4.3% y/y in Dec 16, down from the upwardly revised 5.3% in Nov 16. In particular, ICT manufacturing grew at a rapid 8.7% in Dec 16, up from 6.3% in Nov 16. Stronger export demand is supporting South Korea’s production activity, especially for electronic parts and components.</li>
<li>
Double-digit growth for exports and imports - the strongest since Feb 12 - heralded a strong start for South Korea in 2017. Exports increased 11.0% y/y in Jan 17…</li>
</ul>



Industrial production ended the year on a strong note, growing 4.3% y/y in Dec 16, down from the upwardly revised 5.3% in Nov 16. In particular, ICT manufacturing grew at a rapid 8.7% in Dec 16, up from 6.3% in Nov 16. Stronger export demand is supporting South Korea’s production activity, especially for electronic parts and components.

Double-digit growth for exports and imports - the strongest since Feb 12 - heralded a strong start for South Korea in 2017. Exports increased 11.0% y/y in Jan 17…


South Korea

iShares MSCI South Korea ETF is an exchange traded fund incorporated in the USA. The ETF tracks the performance of the MSCI Korea 25-50 USD Index. The fund holds companies of all market caps which are primarily traded on the Korean exchange. The ETF's holdings are primarily focused in the consumer discretionary, financial and information technology sectors.

iShares MSCI South Korea ETF (EWY US)

No Coal Exports from North Korea to China in 2017 - Turning Off the Money Spigot to North Korea?

Having followed North Korea for more than 20+ years, the announcement over the weekend that China will stop importing coal from North Korea from...

Douglas Kim

Korea: Chaebol Under Pressure but Who Will Benefit? (Part 4 of 7)

Korea underperformed the main EM benchmark in 2016, but only by a very marginal amount. The main features of the market were the underperformance...

John-Paul Smith

Geopolitics: Trump Refines Approach to China

Trump stepped back from direct confrontation with China: In his phone call with Chinese President Xi, Trump acceded to China’s request to honour...

Manu Bhaskaran

Myanmar Travel Report

In line with our process of being on the ground in the countries we invest in, Scott Osheroff, Analyst at Asia Frontier Capital, travelled to...

Asia Frontier Capital

South Korea: Exports - The Saviour

Industrial production ended the year on a strong note, growing 4.3% y/y in Dec 16, down from the upwardly revised 5.3% in Nov 16. In particular,...

Jason Tan