Asia Economist and CEO, Centennial Asia Advisors

Manu Bhaskaran

Asia Economist and CEO

Centennial Asia Advisors

At Centennial Asia Advisors, we tell it like it is. We have no vested interests, no need for a China wall, and no reason to skew our outlook any other way. With over 30 years experience covering Asia’s political economy, you can be sure our conclusions and analyses are based on the unadulterated facts. Through years of fine-tuning our research methodologies, we deliver a quality of macroeconomic analysis few other houses can match.

Centennial Asia Advisors is an independent research and advisory firm that works with governments, multilateral institutions, financial firms and leading MNCs.

Economic Policy and Strategic Advisors

Macroeconomics

As Thailand mourns its dearly departed King, political machinations are likely to be ongoing behind the scenes. Already, the National Legislative Assembly did not invite the Crown Prince to ascend the throne, purportedly at the behest of the Prince himself, who wanted time to mourn with the Thai people.The ascension of the new King is a potential flashpoint, given the shifting power structures and heavyweight players jostling for pole position under the new monarchy. As power shifts from the Old Guard to the new, we sketch out a number of scenarios which could unfold as the royal succession takes place in due course.

As Thailand mourns its dearly departed King, political machinations are likely to be ongoing behind the scenes. Already, the National Legislative Assembly did not invite the Crown Prince to ascend the throne, purportedly at the behest of the Prince himself, who wanted time to mourn with the Thai people.The ascension of the new King is a potential flashpoint, given the shifting power structures and heavyweight players jostling for pole position under the new monarchy. As power shifts from the Old Guard to the new, we sketch out a number of scenarios which could unfold as the royal succession takes place in due course.

Post-Bhumibol Thailand Scenarios: First a Crisis, Then a Resolution

In light of the passing of the revered Thai monarch, Centennial Asia Advisors pays tribute in this obituary to one of the most consequential kings in Thai history, King Bhumibol Adulyadej, Rama IX, the ninth monarch of the Chakri Dynasty.

In light of the passing of the revered Thai monarch, Centennial Asia Advisors pays tribute in this obituary to one of the most consequential kings in Thai history, King Bhumibol Adulyadej, Rama IX, the ninth monarch of the Chakri Dynasty.

Economist, Centennial Asia Advisors

Jason Tan

Economist

<ul><li>Thailand has continued to shrug off the funk; the economic recovery is gaining steam even though not all engines are firing on all cylinders yet. Private consumption, tourism, fiscal spending, exports and business confidence are all looking up.</li><li>However, it remains imperative for the military regime to reignite private investment levels which have remained lacklustre despite the economic upswing. The government has poured in resources to boost public investment in the hopes of crowding in private capex.</li><li>Once again, politics in Thailand remains the X-factor which could make or break the domestic economy – the King’s health remains a huge concern while the move for an outsider PM could roil the political scene. Finally, there is more talk of installing Prayuth as the Prime Minister through the participation of a pro-military party in the 2017 elections.</li></ul>

Thailand has continued to shrug off the funk; the economic recovery is gaining steam even though not all engines are firing on all cylinders yet. Private consumption, tourism, fiscal spending, exports and business confidence are all looking up.However, it remains imperative for the military regime to reignite private investment levels which have remained lacklustre despite the economic upswing. The government has poured in resources to boost public investment in the hopes of crowding in private capex.Once again, politics in Thailand remains the X-factor which could make or break the domestic economy – the King’s health remains a huge concern while the move for an outsider PM could roil the political scene. Finally, there is more talk of installing Prayuth as the Prime Minister through the participation of a pro-military party in the 2017 elections.

Thailand: Resurgent Economy Gears up for Flight

Asean-focused. Ex-Head of Thai Research

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In this review, we predict that Thai equities will rally in October and early November before another major correction in December with the Fed rate hike. In the short term, we expect Thai banks to do well, as they and Asian counterparts (eg. Singapore's DBS) benefit in terms of relative growth if the US banks are hampered by the regulator's decision to increase capital requirements of the largest banks. We also see two companies run by Thailand's second richest tycoon Charoen Sirivadhanabhakdi, namely BJC and Thai Beverage, outperforming companies run by the larger CP Group, primarily due to corporate action and a market's tilt towards consumers and retailing sectors. Needless to say, we will be tactically overweight on banks, retailers, and consumers over the next two months.We also discuss: 1) the overall upgrade of Thailand's growth expectations on the back of stronger domestic consumption; and 2) highight the government's five strategic sectors, named 'The 5 S-Curves'.

In this review, we predict that Thai equities will rally in October and early November before another major correction in December with the Fed rate hike. In the short term, we expect Thai banks to do well, as they and Asian counterparts (eg. Singapore's DBS) benefit in terms of relative growth if the US banks are hampered by the regulator's decision to increase capital requirements of the largest banks. We also see two companies run by Thailand's second richest tycoon Charoen Sirivadhanabhakdi, namely BJC and Thai Beverage, outperforming companies run by the larger CP Group, primarily due to corporate action and a market's tilt towards consumers and retailing sectors. Needless to say, we will be tactically overweight on banks, retailers, and consumers over the next two months.We also discuss: 1) the overall upgrade of Thailand's growth expectations on the back of stronger domestic consumption; and 2) highight the government's five strategic sectors, named 'The 5 S-Curves'.

American Capital Requirement Increase: Charoen and Thai Banks to Lead October Rally

EM PM, Ecstrat

Emad Mostaque

EM PM

Ecstrat

Ecstrat is a consultancy advising on asset allocation between global equity markets, with a focus on the intersection of governments, geopolitics, governance and markets.
 
Over the past few years and more especially since the Great Financial Crisis (GFC), investors have become more focused on short-term market movements and real-time returns and have consequently neglected the analysis of the underlying structural themes that underpin longer term performance.
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More specifically we believe that the evolution of governance-based relationships between investors, controlling shareholders, labour and the state is one of the primary determinants of both relative and absolute performance between individual equity markets.
 
We will endeavour to provide investors with some of the context surrounding governance-related issues which encompass many different disciplines including history, economics and political science, as well as the financial metrics which are the most obvious manifestation of the structural characteristics of each market.
 
We will pay particular attention to the shifts and potential inflection points for governance in individual markets as these are often the best lead indicators for both economic and market performance.

Senate and Congress have overridden President Obama's veto on the Justice Against Sponsors of Terrorism (JASTA) legislation, designed to allow families of victims of terror attacks on US soil to sue any member of foreign governments (specifically the Saudi government) for support of these acts.The stripping of sovereign immunity will have profound implications for global geopolitics and the increasingly strained relationship of Gulf states and their traditional Western allies, particularly at a time when the USA is pivoting away from the Middle East towards the perceived increasing threat in Asia.

Senate and Congress have overridden President Obama's veto on the Justice Against Sponsors of Terrorism (JASTA) legislation, designed to allow families of victims of terror attacks on US soil to sue any member of foreign governments (specifically the Saudi government) for support of these acts.The stripping of sovereign immunity will have profound implications for global geopolitics and the increasingly strained relationship of Gulf states and their traditional Western allies, particularly at a time when the USA is pivoting away from the Middle East towards the perceived increasing threat in Asia.

Thailand

iShares MSCI Thailand Capped ETF is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA. The ETF seeks investment results that correspond to the performance of the MSCI Thailand IMI 25/50 Index.

iShares MSCI Thailand (THD US)

Post-Bhumibol Thailand Scenarios: First a Crisis, Then a Resolution

As Thailand mourns its dearly departed King, political machinations are likely to be ongoing behind the scenes. Already, the National Legislative...

Manu Bhaskaran

Thailand: A Nation Mourns Its King

In light of the passing of the revered Thai monarch, Centennial Asia Advisors pays tribute in this obituary to one of the most consequential kings...

Manu Bhaskaran

Thailand: Resurgent Economy Gears up for Flight

Thailand has continued to shrug off the funk; the economic recovery is gaining steam even though not all engines are firing on all cylinders yet....

Jason Tan

American Capital Requirement Increase: Charoen and Thai Banks to Lead October Rally

In this review, we predict that Thai equities will rally in October and early November before another major correction in December with the Fed...

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

JASTA Will Push Saudi East

Senate and Congress have overridden President Obama's veto on the Justice Against Sponsors of Terrorism (JASTA) legislation, designed to allow...

Emad Mostaque