Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Event-Driven

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bangkok-bank-public-co-ltd" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:213:1">Bangkok Bank Public (BBL TB)</a> is trading at the highest price ratio relative to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kasikornbank-pcl" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:293:1">Kasikornbank PCL (KBANK TB)</a> over the last two years.In this Insight, we take a look at the fundamentals, price charts, passive flows, and flows into NVDRs to figure out whether this is the start of a breakout for BBL relative to KBANK, or if a reversal is on hand.We recommend going short <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bangkok-bank-public-co-ltd" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:213:1">Bangkok Bank Public (BBL TB)</a> and long <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kasikornbank-pcl" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:293:1">Kasikornbank PCL (KBANK TB)</a> at current levels with a 6% absolute return target.

Bangkok Bank Public (BBL TB) is trading at the highest price ratio relative to Kasikornbank PCL (KBANK TB) over the last two years.In this Insight, we take a look at the fundamentals, price charts, passive flows, and flows into NVDRs to figure out whether this is the start of a breakout for BBL relative to KBANK, or if a reversal is on hand.We recommend going short Bangkok Bank Public (BBL TB) and long Kasikornbank PCL (KBANK TB) at current levels with a 6% absolute return target.

Independent Asian Credit Research, Bondcritic

Warut Promboon

Independent Asian Credit Research

Asian Fixed Income/Frontier Market Research

Bondcritic

Bondcritic, established in 2009, is designed to be an independent credit research voice that helps investors gain insights and unbiased analyses on Asian fixed income market. Our mission is to discover deep-value Asian high-yield and distressed bonds with a bottom-up approach, together with the help of our proprietary ESG (Environmental, Social Development, and Governance) model. At the same time, we focus on bringing investment cases of unrated and unloved issuers to the general public.

Credit

We expect the upcoming March 24th general election in Thailand to be the first step toward a check-and-balance system but also see this election leading to another election in 2-3 years with the current poll pointing to either an indecisive faction with the junta’s leader, General Prayut Chan O-Sha as the Prime Minister (PM) or  a loose faction with Abhisit Vejjajiva as the PM. In either case, we do not expect the new government to have the decisive vote in the parliament. 
With all the campaign promises, most of which copied Thaksin’s populism style, we also expect rising domestic spending post-election. We expect the voting turnout to be a record 80% or above and believe this election is at least a step toward a more transparent government with a valid opposition and that should induce more investments into the country. That said, we see the event as credit positive for Thailand. Though Thailand’s USD and THB bonds are not attractive and/or sufficiently liquid to international investors, in our view, we believe Thailand is worth monitoring on its role to be the center of the Greater Mekong region, let alone ASEAN.

We expect the upcoming March 24th general election in Thailand to be the first step toward a check-and-balance system but also see this election leading to another election in 2-3 years with the current poll pointing to either an indecisive faction with the junta’s leader, General Prayut Chan O-Sha as the Prime Minister (PM) or  a loose faction with Abhisit Vejjajiva as the PM. In either case, we do not expect the new government to have the decisive vote in the parliament. 
With all the campaign promises, most of which copied Thaksin’s populism style, we also expect rising domestic spending post-election. We expect the voting turnout to be a record 80% or above and believe this election is at least a step toward a more transparent government with a valid opposition and that should induce more investments into the country. That said, we see the event as credit positive for Thailand. Though Thailand’s USD and THB bonds are not attractive and/or sufficiently liquid to international investors, in our view, we believe Thailand is worth monitoring on its role to be the center of the Greater Mekong region, let alone ASEAN.

Asian Credit Monitor: The Pad Thai Election

Independent, global risk consultancy, Control Risks

Aparajita Verma

Independent, global risk consultancy

Control Risks

Control Risks is an independent, global risk consultancy specialising in helping organisations manage political, integrity and security risks in complex and hostile environments. We support clients by providing strategic consultancy, expert analysis and in-depth investigations, handling sensitive political issues and providing practical on-the-ground protection and support.

Our unique combination of services, geographical reach and the trust our clients place in us ensure we can help them to effectively solve their problems and realise new opportunities across the world.

Thailand is currently negotiating a phase of profound and unprecedented political uncertainty, following the passing on 13 October of the revered King Bhumibol Adulyadej, the world’s longest-reigning monarch.

Thailand is currently negotiating a phase of profound and unprecedented political uncertainty, following the passing on 13 October of the revered King Bhumibol Adulyadej, the world’s longest-reigning monarch.

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

iShares MSCI Thailand / Technical Analysis

Thai SET 50 buy was issued at 906 amid flat congestion on a bet that the SET 50 would breakout above 930. Now that we have cleared this initial hurdle we must look at sector inflection points that would support this breakout and provide sustainability.Financial sector has provided leadership given the break above 2,450 resistance representing a major breakout from previous attempts going back to February 2015. The initial breakout was followed by a successful back fill and support test and has…

Thai SET 50 buy was issued at 906 amid flat congestion on a bet that the SET 50 would breakout above 930. Now that we have cleared this initial hurdle we must look at sector inflection points that would support this breakout and provide sustainability.Financial sector has provided leadership given the break above 2,450 resistance representing a major breakout from previous attempts going back to February 2015. The initial breakout was followed by a successful back fill and support test and has…

Founder, Riedel Research

David Riedel

Founder

Independent equity research on GEM Markets

Riedel Research

Riedel provides equity research and analysis to leading financial organizations. By becoming members of a region (Asia, Latin America, Emerging Europe or Global), organizations have access to an integrated set of services including:

Regular company coverage reports
Up-to-date investment decision advice (buy, hold, sell)
Monthly regional and global conference calls
Customized company reports and unlimited on-line access to the program's services.

Riedel provides research coverage of companies across the full range of market capitalization. Experienced research professionals in each market develop company reports and analysis as well as earnings models and projections. Ratings are Buy, Hold and Sell with a focus on compelling investment ideas - both long and short. Downloadable, dynamic earnings models are built to facilitate sensitivity analysis.

Please feel free to contact us for complimentary access to our written research.  We want to show you that our unique research flow can add value and help develop a long-term, high value-add relationship.

Riedel's model focuses on providing clients with unique insights and consulting in addition to unlimited access to all produced research This model allows members to receive exponential benefits for their retainer fees.

iShares MSCI Emerging Markets / Event-Driven

RRG StatArb Algorithm Identifies Panic Following BrexitOn July 12th, 2016 the RRG StatArb Algorithm identified a market inefficiency caused by the panic surrounding the turmoil that followed the Brexit. In this special insights report we detail the current trade recommended by the StatArb Algorithm to capitalize on this inefficiency.Trade specifics (securities and weightings) are detailed on the back page of the report.

RRG StatArb Algorithm Identifies Panic Following BrexitOn July 12th, 2016 the RRG StatArb Algorithm identified a market inefficiency caused by the panic surrounding the turmoil that followed the Brexit. In this special insights report we detail the current trade recommended by the StatArb Algorithm to capitalize on this inefficiency.Trade specifics (securities and weightings) are detailed on the back page of the report.

Panic Surrounding Brexit Causes Trading Opportunity in Emerging Markets

Thailand

iShares MSCI Thailand Capped ETF is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA. The ETF seeks investment results that correspond to the performance of the MSCI Thailand IMI 25/50 Index.

iShares MSCI Thailand (THD US)

Battle of the Banks - BBL Vs. KBANK

Bangkok Bank Public (BBL TB) is trading at the highest price ratio relative to Kasikornbank PCL (KBANK TB) over the last two years.In this Insight,...

Brian Freitas

Asian Credit Monitor: The Pad Thai Election

We expect the upcoming March 24th general election in Thailand to be the first step toward a check-and-balance system but also see this election...

Bondcritic

A Brave New World in the Land of Smiles

Thailand is currently negotiating a phase of profound and unprecedented political uncertainty, following the passing on 13 October of the revered...

Control Risks

Thai Breakout Needs the Banks

Thai SET 50 buy was issued at 906 amid flat congestion on a bet that the SET 50 would breakout above 930. Now that we have cleared this initial...

Thomas Schroeder

Panic Surrounding Brexit Causes Trading Opportunity in Emerging Markets

RRG StatArb Algorithm Identifies Panic Following BrexitOn July 12th, 2016 the RRG StatArb Algorithm identified a market inefficiency caused by the...

David Riedel