Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>A monthly review of how the markets and our themes are currently performing</li>
<li>Analysing what went wrong and what went right in stocks and sectors</li>
<li>Highlighting positions added or removed from the thematic investment portfolio</li>
</ul>


A monthly review of how the markets and our themes are currently performing
Analysing what went wrong and what went right in stocks and sectors
Highlighting positions added or removed from the thematic investment portfolio


April Themes and Thematic Portfolio Review

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Large-Cap indexes (S&amp;P 500, Nasdaq 100, and DJI) remain bullish, all hitting new all-time highs last week while continuing to find short-term support at their respective 20-day MAs.</li>
<li>Mid-Caps (S&amp;P 400, Russell Mid-Cap) starting another leg higher following breakouts from 2-month consolidations. Small-caps (S&amp;P 600, Russell 2000) are likely to follow in the footsteps of large- and mid-caps.</li>
<li>Small-Cap indexes have been consolidating for 2.5 months following the historic rally from late-October to late-December 2023, a healthy sign. We expect they are gearing-up for another similar move higher.</li>
</ul>


Large-Cap indexes (S&amp;P 500, Nasdaq 100, and DJI) remain bullish, all hitting new all-time highs last week while continuing to find short-term support at their respective 20-day MAs.
Mid-Caps (S&amp;P 400, Russell Mid-Cap) starting another leg higher following breakouts from 2-month consolidations. Small-caps (S&amp;P 600, Russell 2000) are likely to follow in the footsteps of large- and mid-caps.
Small-Cap indexes have been consolidating for 2.5 months following the historic rally from late-October to late-December 2023, a healthy sign. We expect they are gearing-up for another similar move higher.


U.S. Dollar Rolling Over; Small-Caps to Follow Mid- And Large-Caps to New Highs; Buys in Cons. Disc.

iShares PHLX Semiconductor ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>While the SPX remains bullish above 7580-7629 support, we're becoming near-term cautious on the Russell 2000 (IWM) and we remain near-term cautious on the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) and A.I. areas.</li>
<li>As discussed last week, we believe the Aug4 and Aug12 gap fills suggest more consolidation is likely; not only have the odds increased that A.I. areas test their July lows... </li>
<li>...but the lower highs that have formed could be an early sign that they could break below their July lows in SOXX, CHAT, NCLD, DTCR, and EUV</li>
</ul>


While the SPX remains bullish above 7580-7629 support, we're becoming near-term cautious on the Russell 2000 (IWM) and we remain near-term cautious on the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) and A.I. areas.
As discussed last week, we believe the Aug4 and Aug12 gap fills suggest more consolidation is likely; not only have the odds increased that A.I. areas test their July lows... 
...but the lower highs that have formed could be an early sign that they could break below their July lows in SOXX, CHAT, NCLD, DTCR, and EUV


Warning Signs; Buying Energy and Health Care; Still Cautious on QQQ and Now Also IWM

<ul>
<li>We remain bullish (as of our 4/21/26 Compass) on the S&amp;P 500 (SPX), Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM).</li>
<li>Additionally, we are starting to see signs that lead us to believe the bottom is in for SPX, IWM, QQQ, and A.I./Technology areas (XLK, SOXX, CHAT,DRAM,WGMI); more on this below</li>
<li>False breakdowns and bullish inflections on XLK, SOXX, CHAT, DRAM, WGMI, EEM. DXY breaking below major support. Risk-on signals expanding</li>
</ul>


We remain bullish (as of our 4/21/26 Compass) on the S&amp;P 500 (SPX), Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM).
Additionally, we are starting to see signs that lead us to believe the bottom is in for SPX, IWM, QQQ, and A.I./Technology areas (XLK, SOXX, CHAT,DRAM,WGMI); more on this below
False breakdowns and bullish inflections on XLK, SOXX, CHAT, DRAM, WGMI, EEM. DXY breaking below major support. Risk-on signals expanding


Bottom in Place for A.I./Technology Names?; SPX and IWM Breakouts; Risk-On Signals Expanding

<ul>
<li>A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook</li>
<li>Volatility continues in the AI and AI-adjacent trade  with large daily swings</li>
<li>Some clues as to future direction from risk-off days and incoming data</li>
</ul>


A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook
Volatility continues in the AI and AI-adjacent trade  with large daily swings
Some clues as to future direction from risk-off days and incoming data


United States

iShares Russell 2000 ETF is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA. The ETF tracks the performance of the Russell 2000 Index. The ETF holds mid and small-cap U.S. stocks. Its investments are in the smallest 2000 companies from the Russell 3000 Index. The ETF weights the holdings by market capitalization and rebalances annually.

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iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM US)

April Themes and Thematic Portfolio Review

We review overall market performance, our investment themes, highlighting additions and substractions in the thematic portfolio.

Rikki Malik

U.S. Dollar Rolling Over; Small-Caps to Follow Mid- And Large-Caps to New Highs; Buys in Cons. Disc.

U.S. Dollar $DXY Rolling Over; 10- and 30-Yr Treasury Yields Hit Major Resistance; Small-Caps to Follow Mid- and Large-Caps to New Highs $IWM $RTY...

Vermilion Research

Warning Signs; Buying Energy and Health Care; Still Cautious on QQQ and Now Also IWM

Warning Signs $RSP; Remain Overweight and Buy Energy $XLE and Health Care $XLV; Still Cautious on $QQQ and Now Also $IWM; Downgrading Utilities...

Vermilion Research

Bottom in Place for A.I./Technology Names?; SPX and IWM Breakouts; Risk-On Signals Expanding

Bottom in Place for A.I./Technology Names? $XLK $QQQ $CHAT $SOXX $DRAM $WGMI; $SPX and $IWM Breakouts; Risk-On Signals Expanding. ACIW, PEGA, QTWO,...

Vermilion Research

Overview #67 - Thin Air

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook. We look at the recent market action in the US as well as clues as to...

Rikki Malik

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