Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain bullish (as of our 4/21/26 Compass) on the S&amp;P 500 (SPX), Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM). </li>
<li>Both the SPX and QQQ are testing their 50-day MAs, and we are buyers on this pullback as we expect 50-day MA supports to hold.</li>
<li>We are upgrading Financials (XLF) and Utilities (XLU) to market weight with RS making bullish inflections. Buys: HOOD DAVE AFRM UPST SEZL KLAR TLN GEV</li>
</ul>


We remain bullish (as of our 4/21/26 Compass) on the S&amp;P 500 (SPX), Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM). 
Both the SPX and QQQ are testing their 50-day MAs, and we are buyers on this pullback as we expect 50-day MA supports to hold.
We are upgrading Financials (XLF) and Utilities (XLU) to market weight with RS making bullish inflections. Buys: HOOD DAVE AFRM UPST SEZL KLAR TLN GEV


Upgrading Financials and Utilities to Market Weight; Risk-On Signals Remain Dominant. HOOD DAVE AFRM

<ul>
<li>We are upgrading our outlook to bullish on the S&amp;P 500 (SPX), Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM). Market dynamics have improved considerably ever since major bullish false breakdowns...</li>
<li>...at 6480-6520 on the SPX, 24,000 on Nasdaq futures (NQ), and $245 on the IWM, with all of them now breaking out to all-time highs.</li>
<li>Everything we see suggests bulls remain in control, so we are buying any pullbacks for the foreseeable future to the 20-day MA or 21-day EMAs on SPX, QQQ, and IWM.</li>
</ul>


We are upgrading our outlook to bullish on the S&amp;P 500 (SPX), Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM). Market dynamics have improved considerably ever since major bullish false breakdowns...
...at 6480-6520 on the SPX, 24,000 on Nasdaq futures (NQ), and $245 on the IWM, with all of them now breaking out to all-time highs.
Everything we see suggests bulls remain in control, so we are buying any pullbacks for the foreseeable future to the 20-day MA or 21-day EMAs on SPX, QQQ, and IWM.


Upgrading Outlook to Bullish; Buy the Dips Market; Downgrading Staples to Market Weight

<ul>
<li>Our outlook (as of our 3/3/26 Compass) remains near-term neutral on the S&amp;P 500 (SPX), after being bullish for all but one week since 4/22/25 (we went neutral 11/19/25-11/25/25)</li>
<li>Concerns we discussed since early-February stemmed from deteriorating market dynamics, and ever since then we have been "concerned about a deeper pullback, likely to 6720-6776, 6690, or 6480-6520 on SPX."</li>
<li>SPX hit 6480-6520 support on Friday and yesterday (Monday), and the same can be said of Nasdaq 100 futures (NQ)which tested 24,000, and the Russell 2000 (IWM) which tested $245.</li>
</ul>


Our outlook (as of our 3/3/26 Compass) remains near-term neutral on the S&amp;P 500 (SPX), after being bullish for all but one week since 4/22/25 (we went neutral 11/19/25-11/25/25)
Concerns we discussed since early-February stemmed from deteriorating market dynamics, and ever since then we have been "concerned about a deeper pullback, likely to 6720-6776, 6690, or 6480-6520 on SPX."
SPX hit 6480-6520 support on Friday and yesterday (Monday), and the same can be said of Nasdaq 100 futures (NQ)which tested 24,000, and the Russell 2000 (IWM) which tested $245.


<ul>
<li>Our outlook as of last week (3/3/26 Compass) remains near-term neutral on the S&amp;P 500 (SPX), after being bullish for all but one week since 4/22/25 (we went neutral 11/19/25-11/25/25).</li>
<li>However, signs point to a local low being made yesterday after indexes went from heavily red, to firmly green as Trump signaled the war with Iran is nearing an end</li>
<li>Russell 2000 (IWM) held at 4+year base support $245 , S&amp;P 500 futures(ES) held at its 200-day MA and Nasdaq 100 futures(NQ) held above 6-month support at 24,000 late-Sunday night</li>
</ul>


Our outlook as of last week (3/3/26 Compass) remains near-term neutral on the S&amp;P 500 (SPX), after being bullish for all but one week since 4/22/25 (we went neutral 11/19/25-11/25/25).
However, signs point to a local low being made yesterday after indexes went from heavily red, to firmly green as Trump signaled the war with Iran is nearing an end
Russell 2000 (IWM) held at 4+year base support $245 , S&amp;P 500 futures(ES) held at its 200-day MA and Nasdaq 100 futures(NQ) held above 6-month support at 24,000 late-Sunday night


Local Low in Place; Russell 2000 (IWM) Holds at $245; Semiconductors (SMH) Hold at $375

Nasdaq-100 Stock Index / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We maintain our near-term bullish outlook on the SPX, Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM), and will stay that way if 6824 SPX, $610 QQQ, and $245 IWM hold</li>
<li>We see mild deterioration in market dynamics, which may provide a near-term headwind; still, MAG7 earnings and Wednesday's Fed meeting are in the driver's seat, we're seeing a QQQ breakout(buy)</li>
<li>Buy this breakout above $629-$630 on QQQ. But the breakout must hold above 629 or it risks testing the 100-day MA or multi-month uptrend in blue (see chart below)</li>
</ul>


We maintain our near-term bullish outlook on the SPX, Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM), and will stay that way if 6824 SPX, $610 QQQ, and $245 IWM hold
We see mild deterioration in market dynamics, which may provide a near-term headwind; still, MAG7 earnings and Wednesday's Fed meeting are in the driver's seat, we're seeing a QQQ breakout(buy)
Buy this breakout above $629-$630 on QQQ. But the breakout must hold above 629 or it risks testing the 100-day MA or multi-month uptrend in blue (see chart below)


Chop Continues; Nasdaq 100 Breaking Above Major Resistance; Speculative Leaders Wobbling

United States

iShares Russell 2000 ETF is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA. The ETF tracks the performance of the Russell 2000 Index. The ETF holds mid and small-cap U.S. stocks. Its investments are in the smallest 2000 companies from the Russell 3000 Index. The ETF weights the holdings by market capitalization and rebalances annually.

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iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM US)

Upgrading Financials and Utilities to Market Weight; Risk-On Signals Remain Dominant. HOOD DAVE AFRM

Upgrading Financials and Utilities to Market Weight; Risk-On Signals Remain Dominant. Charts Highlighted: XLF, XLU, HOOD, DAVE, SEZL, AFRM, UPST,...

Vermilion Research

Upgrading Outlook to Bullish; Buy the Dips Market; Downgrading Staples to Market Weight

Upgrading Outlook to Bullish $SPX $QQQ $IWM $IJH; Buy the Dips Market; Downgrading Staples to Market Weight $XLP; Add to Growth and Technology $IWF...

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Significant Downside Risk if 6480 Breaks

Significant Downside Risk if 6480 Breaks on $SPX. 10-Year Treasury yield breakout above 4.30%. MOVE index surges to 11-month highs

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Local Low in Place; Russell 2000 (IWM) Holds at $245; Semiconductors (SMH) Hold at $375

Local Low in Place $SPX; Russell 2000 $IWM Holds at $245; Semiconductors $SMH Hold at $365-$375; Cannot be too Bearish if these supports hold....

Vermilion Research

Chop Continues; Nasdaq 100 Breaking Above Major Resistance; Speculative Leaders Wobbling

Chop Continues; Nasdaq 100 $QQQ Major Breakout Above $630 Resistance; Speculative Leaders Wobbling $REMX $TMC $MP $BTQ $IONQ $RGTI $IONQ $QUBT...

Vermilion Research

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