Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

US Treasury (10 Yr Generic) / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We maintain our near-term bullish outlook on SPX, Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM), which has remained in place since 4/22/25, aside from one week(11/19/25-11/25/25) when we went neutral.</li>
<li>We will stay near-term bullish as long as crucial support levels of 6824 on SPX, $610 on QQQ, and $245 on IWM continue to hold. Intermediate-term, still bullish above 6480-6520</li>
<li>SPX gap down (resistance at 6910-6940, Staples at 4-month RS highs, and more are giving us reason for caution in the near-term, though we still view pullbacks as a buy</li>
</ul>


We maintain our near-term bullish outlook on SPX, Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM), which has remained in place since 4/22/25, aside from one week(11/19/25-11/25/25) when we went neutral.
We will stay near-term bullish as long as crucial support levels of 6824 on SPX, $610 on QQQ, and $245 on IWM continue to hold. Intermediate-term, still bullish above 6480-6520
SPX gap down (resistance at 6910-6940, Staples at 4-month RS highs, and more are giving us reason for caution in the near-term, though we still view pullbacks as a buy


Reason for Near-Term Caution? 10Y Treasury Yield Above 4.20%; Upgrading Energy and Staples

<ul>
<li>We maintain our near-term bullish outlook on the SPX, Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM), in place since 4/22/25, aside from one week when we flipped to neutral.</li>
<li>We will stay near-term bullish as long as crucial support levels of 6480-6520 on SPX, $580-$583 on QQQ, and $245 on IWM continue to hold.</li>
<li>Signs of impending upside are evident with the Russell 2000 and many Sectors/areas of the market breaking out (more on that below).</li>
</ul>


We maintain our near-term bullish outlook on the SPX, Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM), in place since 4/22/25, aside from one week when we flipped to neutral.
We will stay near-term bullish as long as crucial support levels of 6480-6520 on SPX, $580-$583 on QQQ, and $245 on IWM continue to hold.
Signs of impending upside are evident with the Russell 2000 and many Sectors/areas of the market breaking out (more on that below).


Breakouts Continue: IWM, ARKK, SMH, URA, EEM, WGMI, NLR; Upgrading Discretionary to Market Weight

Market Intelligence, ORTEX

ORTEX Market Intel

Market Intelligence

Global Financial Data and Analytics Platform

ORTEX

ORTEX is a global financial data and analytics platform providing real-time securities lending and short interest data, index rebalance data, holdings and insider transactions, trading signals, corporate actions and news,  stock machine learning and factor scores and other analytics. The majority of the data are downloadable and accessible through APIs.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Short sellers made decisive moves this week ending September 26.</li><li>Energy refining ETF CRAK saw SI hit 36.8% of float - up 38% in seven days.</li><li>Mortgage REIT RWT saw the sharpest build, with SI surging 215% to 22.1% of float as borrow dried up.</li></ul>

Short sellers made decisive moves this week ending September 26.Energy refining ETF CRAK saw SI hit 36.8% of float - up 38% in seven days.Mortgage REIT RWT saw the sharpest build, with SI surging 215% to 22.1% of float as borrow dried up.

Bears Charge Into Energy and Real Estate; Silver Shorts Flee

Cross-Asset Strategist & Quantitative Analyst, Pennock Idea Hub

Cam Hui

Cross-Asset Strategist & Quantitative Analyst

Pennock Idea Hub

We are creators of independent equity research. The Pennock Idea Hub team are veterans of the investment industry. Much of our team has spent their careers at Merrill Lynch, Deutsche Bank, RBC Capital Markets and Wood Gundy. We have taken every aspect of research back to the studs and returned to first principles. The Pennock Idea Hub marries the interests of the sell and buy side. 

We offer the best research for institutional investors by:

-Only publishing research from veteran analysts
-Eliminate the inherent conflicts of the traditional sell and buy side relationship
-Ensure our team is always accessible; collaboration with clients nurtures our collective success

Cross-Asset & Quantitative Research

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>The market is exhibiting number signs of a sustainable risk-on tone, which should carry the stock market rally into year-end and possibly into January.</li>
<li>Market internals point to the an internal rotation, led by small-caps,  as a source of leadership.</li>
<li>Despite the recent AI-related wipeout of technology names, market internals of tech stocks remains  constructive and could see a recovery in the near  future.</li>
</ul>


The market is exhibiting number signs of a sustainable risk-on tone, which should carry the stock market rally into year-end and possibly into January.
Market internals point to the an internal rotation, led by small-caps,  as a source of leadership.
Despite the recent AI-related wipeout of technology names, market internals of tech stocks remains  constructive and could see a recovery in the near  future.


<ul>
<li>We maintain our near-term bullish outlook on S&amp;P 500 (SPX) and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), which has remained in place since 4/22/25, aside from one week (11/19/25-11/25/25) when we were neutral.</li>
<li>Our intermediate-term bullish outlook has been in place since 5/14/25. We'll stay near-term bullish as long as crucial support levels of 6480-6520 on SPX and $580-$583 on QQQ hold.</li>
<li>Additionally, as discussed last week (12/2/25) we believe SPX, QQQ, and Russell 2000 (IWM) are in the midst of a new lockout rally, which is likely to run through early-2026</li>
</ul>


We maintain our near-term bullish outlook on S&amp;P 500 (SPX) and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), which has remained in place since 4/22/25, aside from one week (11/19/25-11/25/25) when we were neutral.
Our intermediate-term bullish outlook has been in place since 5/14/25. We'll stay near-term bullish as long as crucial support levels of 6480-6520 on SPX and $580-$583 on QQQ hold.
Additionally, as discussed last week (12/2/25) we believe SPX, QQQ, and Russell 2000 (IWM) are in the midst of a new lockout rally, which is likely to run through early-2026


Rising Yields a Problem?; Russell 2000 Breakout; No Concern if 10Y Treasury Yield Is Below 4.2%

United States

iShares Russell 2000 ETF is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA. The ETF tracks the performance of the Russell 2000 Index. The ETF holds mid and small-cap U.S. stocks. Its investments are in the smallest 2000 companies from the Russell 3000 Index. The ETF weights the holdings by market capitalization and rebalances annually.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM US)

Reason for Near-Term Caution? 10Y Treasury Yield Above 4.20%; Upgrading Energy and Staples

Reason for Near-Term Caution? $SPX $QQQ 10-Year Treasury Yield Breaking Above 4.20%; Upgrading Energy $XLE $RSPG and Staples $XLP to market weight,...

Vermilion Research

Breakouts Continue: IWM, ARKK, SMH, URA, EEM, WGMI, NLR; Upgrading Discretionary to Market Weight

Breakouts on $IWM $ARKK $SMH $SOXX $URA $EEM $WGMI $DTCR $NLR $XLB $XLI $REMX $QTUM signal impending upside ahead; Upgrading Discretionary to...

Vermilion Research

Bears Charge Into Energy and Real Estate; Silver Shorts Flee

Short sellers made decisive moves this week ending September 26. Energy refining ETF CRAK saw SI hit 36.8% of float - up 38% in seven...

ORTEX Market Intel

Celebrate the Season of Saturnalia

The stock market rally is expected to continue into year-end with small-caps leading the way, despite recent setbacks in tech stocks.

Cam Hui

Rising Yields a Problem?; Russell 2000 Breakout; No Concern if 10Y Treasury Yield Is Below 4.2%

Rising Yields a Problem?; Russell 2000 $IWM Breakout; No Concern if 10Y Treasury Yield is below 4.2%, and quite possibly 4.35%-4.50% if MOVE index...

Vermilion Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Reason for Near-Term Caution? 10Y Treasury Yield Above 4.20%; Upgrading Energy and Staples

Reason for Near-Term Caution? $SPX $QQQ 10-Year Treasury Yield Breaking Above 4.20%; Upgrading Energy $XLE $RSPG and Staples $XLP to market weight,...

Vermilion Research

Breakouts Continue: IWM, ARKK, SMH, URA, EEM, WGMI, NLR; Upgrading Discretionary to Market Weight

Breakouts on $IWM $ARKK $SMH $SOXX $URA $EEM $WGMI $DTCR $NLR $XLB $XLI $REMX $QTUM signal impending upside ahead; Upgrading Discretionary to...

Vermilion Research

Bears Charge Into Energy and Real Estate; Silver Shorts Flee

Short sellers made decisive moves this week ending September 26. Energy refining ETF CRAK saw SI hit 36.8% of float - up 38% in seven...

ORTEX Market Intel

Celebrate the Season of Saturnalia

​The stock market rally is expected to continue into year-end with small-caps leading the way, despite recent setbacks in tech stocks.

Cam Hui

Rising Yields a Problem?; Russell 2000 Breakout; No Concern if 10Y Treasury Yield Is Below 4.2%

Rising Yields a Problem?; Russell 2000 $IWM Breakout; No Concern if 10Y Treasury Yield is below 4.2%, and quite possibly 4.35%-4.50% if MOVE index...

Vermilion Research

The stock market rally is expected to continue into year-end with small-caps leading the way, despite recent setbacks in tech stocks.