Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist, True Insights

Jeroen Blokland

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist

Build Well-Diversified Multi-Asset Portfolios

True Insights

Our research helps investors build well-diversified multi-asset portfolios and profit from market developments. In addition, our unique and proven Macro – Sentiment – Valuation (MSV) investment framework ensures a consistent flow of new investment opportunities. Together with our market views, these opportunities will be reflected in our live ETF-based Global Multi-Asset Portfolios.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>The ISM Manufacturing Index scenarios call for a long US Treasuries, short (US) Equities strategy in each scenario.</li>
<li>Financial conditions paint a rosier picture for equities than the ISM Manufacturing, yet downside prevails. </li>
<li>Despite the uptick in US Macro surprises, global economic surprises are dropping. As a result, a massive gap has opened between the MSCI World Index performance and macro surprises. </li>
</ul>


The ISM Manufacturing Index scenarios call for a long US Treasuries, short (US) Equities strategy in each scenario.
Financial conditions paint a rosier picture for equities than the ISM Manufacturing, yet downside prevails. 
Despite the uptick in US Macro surprises, global economic surprises are dropping. As a result, a massive gap has opened between the MSCI World Index performance and macro surprises. 


<ul>
<li>Since 1970, there hasn’t been a single time continuing claims were up as they are today, without a recession attached to it.</li>
<li>After being bearish for nearly the entirety of the past 18 months, US retail investors have capitulated. A strong contrarian signal.</li>
<li>And we look at drawdowns and the distance to the 200-day moving average to find cracks in market sentiment.</li>
</ul>


Since 1970, there hasn’t been a single time continuing claims were up as they are today, without a recession attached to it.
After being bearish for nearly the entirety of the past 18 months, US retail investors have capitulated. A strong contrarian signal.
And we look at drawdowns and the distance to the 200-day moving average to find cracks in market sentiment.


The Weekly Market Monitor (23) - Fighting Sentiment?

<ul>
<li>Based on the historical lag between yield curve inversion and the beginning of a US recession, the next downturn should commence in Q4 of this year or Q1 of 2024.</li>
<li>Our research reveals that all asset classes performed quite well between the start of yield curve inversion and the start of a recession. </li>
<li>None of the asset classes in our sample experienced negative returns between the first inversion and the start of the US recession. </li>
</ul>


Based on the historical lag between yield curve inversion and the beginning of a US recession, the next downturn should commence in Q4 of this year or Q1 of 2024.
Our research reveals that all asset classes performed quite well between the start of yield curve inversion and the start of a recession. 
None of the asset classes in our sample experienced negative returns between the first inversion and the start of the US recession. 


Navigating the Yield Curve: What It Means for Equities, Other Assets, and Recession

<ul>
<li>Equities and Treasuries shine once the Fed's final rate hike is in, but the latter do so with much lower risk. </li>
<li>Commodities lag once the tightening cycle is in, likely reflecting declining economic activity as higher rates push down GDP growth.</li>
<li>After a weak six months, the return on Gold recovers quickly, comfortably beating the broader commodity index.</li>
</ul>


Equities and Treasuries shine once the Fed's final rate hike is in, but the latter do so with much lower risk. 
Commodities lag once the tightening cycle is in, likely reflecting declining economic activity as higher rates push down GDP growth.
After a weak six months, the return on Gold recovers quickly, comfortably beating the broader commodity index.


Asset Class Performance After the Final Hike – Part II Equities, Treasuries, Commodities, and Gold

Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>With ISM manufacturing new orders below 50 for 8 months, the US will join the Eurozone in recession this quarter. PCE buoyed Q1 GDP, but will weaken as unemployment rises. </li>
<li>Core PCE inflation at 4.6%YoY (MoM annualised gains of 4.7% in Q1CY23) will oblige the Fed to hike the FF rate another 50bp. Mar'23's 4%YoY contraction in M2 proved insufficient. </li>
<li>ECB and BoE need to hike much more, given that CPI inflation is at 6.9%YoY and 10.1%YoY respectively vs their 2% target. Advanced Economies to grow just 0.5% in 2023. </li>
</ul>


With ISM manufacturing new orders below 50 for 8 months, the US will join the Eurozone in recession this quarter. PCE buoyed Q1 GDP, but will weaken as unemployment rises. 
Core PCE inflation at 4.6%YoY (MoM annualised gains of 4.7% in Q1CY23) will oblige the Fed to hike the FF rate another 50bp. Mar'23's 4%YoY contraction in M2 proved insufficient. 
ECB and BoE need to hike much more, given that CPI inflation is at 6.9%YoY and 10.1%YoY respectively vs their 2% target. Advanced Economies to grow just 0.5% in 2023. 


With Inflation Untamed, More Fed and ECB Rate Hikes Ahead Despite Recession

United States

IShares US Treasury Bond is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA. The ETF seeks investment results that correspond generally to the price and yield performance, before fees and expenses, of the ICE U.S. Treasury Core Bond Index.

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iShares US Treasury Bond ETF (GOVT US)

Macro Market Indicators (June 2023)

We look at 'Macro Market Indicators' that say something about the direction of markets and the relative attractiveness of different asset classes.

Jeroen Blokland

The Weekly Market Monitor (23) - Fighting Sentiment?

US labor market data, US Recession Scoreboard, Eurozone recession, the looming Credit Crunch, market sentiment, momentum, drawdowns, cross-asset...

Jeroen Blokland

Navigating the Yield Curve: What It Means for Equities, Other Assets, and Recession

Shedding more light on what US yield curve inversion actually means for the likelihood of US recessions and asset class returns.

Jeroen Blokland

Asset Class Performance After the Final Hike – Part II Equities, Treasuries, Commodities, and Gold

Equities and Treasuries shine once the Fed's final rate hike is in, but the latter do so with much lower risk. Commodities lag once the tightening...

Jeroen Blokland

With Inflation Untamed, More Fed and ECB Rate Hikes Ahead Despite Recession

US M2 contracted 4%YoY in Mar'23 but core PCE inflation was still 4.6%YoY, requiring another 50bp of rate hikes plus recession. PCE to lose...

Prasenjit K. Basu

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