Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>On the heels of the US/China “pause” announcement in the trade war, here’s a quick take on market implications and what to watch next:The initial market reaction has probably been more muted than many anticipated.</li><li>Bond yields ticked slightly higher, gold softened, and there were modest tailwinds for regions and countries previously hammered by tariff exposure following yesterday’s “deal” in Geneva.</li><li>But beneath the surface, several dynamics warrant a closer look.</li></ul>

On the heels of the US/China “pause” announcement in the trade war, here’s a quick take on market implications and what to watch next:The initial market reaction has probably been more muted than many anticipated.Bond yields ticked slightly higher, gold softened, and there were modest tailwinds for regions and countries previously hammered by tariff exposure following yesterday’s “deal” in Geneva.But beneath the surface, several dynamics warrant a closer look.

Steno Signals #196 – What’s next for inflation given the US/China pause?

Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

<ul>
<li>Policy volatility/uncertainty has generated negative surprises in inflation, especially with core PCE rising 0.3%MoM in Jan'25 and 0.4%MoM in Feb'25, causing the YoY increase of 2.8% in Feb'25.  </li>
<li>M2 growth was only 4.4%YoY in Feb'25, certainly not an inflationary factor.  The 'reciprocal tariffs' (an effective new tariff of 20% across the board) will add 0.4pp to near-term inflation. </li>
<li>10yr-2yr yield curve remains upward sloping (+0.29pp); tariffs are just 1/4th those of Smoot-Hawley, and unlike them will likely result in mutual tariff reductions. The selloff is a buying opportunity.</li>
</ul>


Policy volatility/uncertainty has generated negative surprises in inflation, especially with core PCE rising 0.3%MoM in Jan'25 and 0.4%MoM in Feb'25, causing the YoY increase of 2.8% in Feb'25.  
M2 growth was only 4.4%YoY in Feb'25, certainly not an inflationary factor.  The 'reciprocal tariffs' (an effective new tariff of 20% across the board) will add 0.4pp to near-term inflation. 
10yr-2yr yield curve remains upward sloping (+0.29pp); tariffs are just 1/4th those of Smoot-Hawley, and unlike them will likely result in mutual tariff reductions. The selloff is a buying opportunity.


US: Policy Volatility Generates Inflation Setbacks, but Recession Fears Overblown

Podcast Exploring Themes Driving Global Markets, Nomura - The Week Ahead

Nomura – The Week Ahead

Podcast Exploring Themes Driving Global Markets

Nomura - The Week Ahead

We explore the main themes that will drive global markets over the coming week, discussing the key market moving events and risks to keep on your radar.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>The Fed, Bank of England, and BOJ all left rates unchanged with their own unique perspectives</li><li>Market volatility continues with equities bouncing and the dollar rebounding</li><li>Fed Chair Powell emphasized keeping options open and uncertainty in the economy, with no immediate rate cuts expected</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

The Fed, Bank of England, and BOJ all left rates unchanged with their own unique perspectivesMarket volatility continues with equities bouncing and the dollar reboundingFed Chair Powell emphasized keeping options open and uncertainty in the economy, with no immediate rate cuts expectedThis content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

The Week Ahead – In The Eye of The Storm

Podcast by J.P. Morgan analysts on global markets, At Any Rate

At Any Rate

Podcast by J.P. Morgan analysts on global markets

Analysts from J.P. Morgan’s Research team take a closer look at the stories behind some of the biggest trends, themes and developments in markets today.

<ul><li>Canada has been in the spotlight with developments related to tariffs and retaliatory measures, as well as the Bank of Canada cutting rates</li><li>The FOMC meeting this week comes at a time of rising downside growth risks and upside pressure on core inflation, with expectations for the Fed to hold rates steady</li><li>Swap spreads have widened in recent weeks due to deregulatory optimism, with expectations for them to narrow towards fair value, driven by supply in the treasury market and demand side factors.</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Canada has been in the spotlight with developments related to tariffs and retaliatory measures, as well as the Bank of Canada cutting ratesThe FOMC meeting this week comes at a time of rising downside growth risks and upside pressure on core inflation, with expectations for the Fed to hold rates steadySwap spreads have widened in recent weeks due to deregulatory optimism, with expectations for them to narrow towards fair value, driven by supply in the treasury market and demand side factors.This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Podcast by Joe Weisenthal & Tracy Alloway, Odd Lots

Odd Lots

Podcast by Joe Weisenthal & Tracy Alloway

Bloomberg's Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway explore the most interesting topics in finance, markets and economics. Join the conversation every Monday and Thursday.

<ul><li>Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater and author, discusses big numbers and debt cycles in a social and political context</li><li>Tracy and Joe host a podcast episode with Ray Dalio, known for his insights on finance and the invention of the chicken nugget</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater and author, discusses big numbers and debt cycles in a social and political contextTracy and Joe host a podcast episode with Ray Dalio, known for his insights on finance and the invention of the chicken nuggetThis content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Ray Dalio on the Coming Crisis in US Debt

United States

IShares US Treasury Bond is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA. The ETF seeks investment results that correspond generally to the price and yield performance, before fees and expenses, of the ICE U.S. Treasury Core Bond Index.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

iShares US Treasury Bond ETF (GOVT US)

Steno Signals #196 – What’s next for inflation given the US/China pause?

On the heels of the US/China “pause” announcement in the trade war, here’s a quick take on market implications and what to watch next:The initial...

Steno Research

US: Policy Volatility Generates Inflation Setbacks, but Recession Fears Overblown

Policy uncertainty caused inflation spikes, but M2 growth tame at 4.4%YoY. Reciprocal tariffs to increase inflation 0.4pp, but mutual tariff...

Prasenjit K. Basu

The Week Ahead – In The Eye of The Storm

Central banks maintained unchanged rates, with Fed revising growth forecast downward while raising inflation projections, Bank of England showing...

Nomura – The Week Ahead

US Rates: Loonie Tunes

Canada is facing economic challenges with tariffs, Bank of Canada rate cuts, while the FOMC meeting is expected to keep rates steady despite risks,...

At Any Rate

Ray Dalio on the Coming Crisis in US Debt

Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater and author, discusses big numbers and debt cycles in a social and political context Tracy and Joe host a podcast...

Odd Lots

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Steno Signals #196 – What’s next for inflation given the US/China pause?

On the heels of the US/China “pause” announcement in the trade war, here’s a quick take on market implications and what to watch next:The initial...

Steno Research

US: Policy Volatility Generates Inflation Setbacks, but Recession Fears Overblown

​Policy uncertainty caused inflation spikes, but M2 growth tame at 4.4%YoY. Reciprocal tariffs to increase inflation 0.4pp, but mutual tariff...

Prasenjit K. Basu

The Week Ahead – In The Eye of The Storm

Central banks maintained unchanged rates, with Fed revising growth forecast downward while raising inflation projections, Bank of England showing...

Nomura – The Week Ahead

US Rates: Loonie Tunes

Canada is facing economic challenges with tariffs, Bank of Canada rate cuts, while the FOMC meeting is expected to keep rates steady despite risks,...

At Any Rate

Ray Dalio on the Coming Crisis in US Debt

Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater and author, discusses big numbers and debt cycles in a social and political context Tracy and Joe host a podcast...

Odd Lots

Policy uncertainty caused inflation spikes, but M2 growth tame at 4.4%YoY. Reciprocal tariffs to increase inflation 0.4pp, but mutual tariff...