Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>After a 0.99%MoM annualised rise in May'24, core PCE inflation eased to 2.57%YoY -- lower than the 2.6%YoY end-CY24 projection that the FOMC believed was compatible with 3 rate cuts. </li>
<li>While the FOMC initially signalled QT in Jun'22, base money increased each month during Jul'23-Feb'24, contributing to higher inflation. Contracting base money since Mar'24 was key to moderating MoM inflation.</li>
<li>Core PCE will likely rise 2%QoQ (annualised) in Q2CY24, and 2.5%YoY in Jun'24. The release of those numbers six days before FOMC decision (31/7/24) will likely trigger Jul'24 rate cut. </li>
</ul>


After a 0.99%MoM annualised rise in May'24, core PCE inflation eased to 2.57%YoY -- lower than the 2.6%YoY end-CY24 projection that the FOMC believed was compatible with 3 rate cuts. 
While the FOMC initially signalled QT in Jun'22, base money increased each month during Jul'23-Feb'24, contributing to higher inflation. Contracting base money since Mar'24 was key to moderating MoM inflation.
Core PCE will likely rise 2%QoQ (annualised) in Q2CY24, and 2.5%YoY in Jun'24. The release of those numbers six days before FOMC decision (31/7/24) will likely trigger Jul'24 rate cut. 


US: Receding Inflation Has Put 3 Rate Cuts Back in Play for 2024

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

<ul><li>Our bet on the US consumer is off to a flying start.</li><li>We have generally assumed that we can write off much of the weakness in May data due to severe weather incidents, which reached a 13-year high in May.</li><li>The weather has been much more benign in June, and we will likely see the first signs of this next week in the non-farm payroll report.</li></ul>

Our bet on the US consumer is off to a flying start.We have generally assumed that we can write off much of the weakness in May data due to severe weather incidents, which reached a 13-year high in May.The weather has been much more benign in June, and we will likely see the first signs of this next week in the non-farm payroll report.

Portfolio Watch: Don’t underestimate the US consumer

Elias Lisberg Glistrup

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Welcome to this week’s rundown of our portfolio, its performance, and our most clear-cut conviction for the period ahead.</li><li>The cocktail of better economic activity and geopolitical tensions provided tailwinds for our long crude bet, which reached its take profit level Tuesday, and hence we are out of our oil position with a significant profit.</li><li>Most notably, and reflecting our still cyclically tilted portfolio allocations, we see growth trending higher in the cyclical parts of the economy through April on our models and nowcasts.</li></ul>

Welcome to this week’s rundown of our portfolio, its performance, and our most clear-cut conviction for the period ahead.The cocktail of better economic activity and geopolitical tensions provided tailwinds for our long crude bet, which reached its take profit level Tuesday, and hence we are out of our oil position with a significant profit.Most notably, and reflecting our still cyclically tilted portfolio allocations, we see growth trending higher in the cyclical parts of the economy through April on our models and nowcasts.

Portfolio Watch: The Real World Is Reflating Again

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist, True Insights

Jeroen Blokland

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist

Build Well-Diversified Multi-Asset Portfolios

True Insights

Our research helps investors build well-diversified multi-asset portfolios and profit from market developments. In addition, our unique and proven Macro – Sentiment – Valuation (MSV) investment framework ensures a consistent flow of new investment opportunities. Together with our market views, these opportunities will be reflected in our live ETF-based Global Multi-Asset Portfolios.

<ul>
<li>First, Japan entered a recession, and a week later, the Nikkei hit an all-time high after 34 years. Any idea why this is?</li>
<li>The Institute of International Finance (IIF) has updated its global debt chart. Be aware that it does NOT show the true underlying trend.</li>
<li>You are only allowed to trade Chinese equities if you are going to buy them. China will have a serious long-term issue in attracting fresh capital.</li>
</ul>


First, Japan entered a recession, and a week later, the Nikkei hit an all-time high after 34 years. Any idea why this is?
The Institute of International Finance (IIF) has updated its global debt chart. Be aware that it does NOT show the true underlying trend.
You are only allowed to trade Chinese equities if you are going to buy them. China will have a serious long-term issue in attracting fresh capital.


The Weekly Market Monitor – The 34-Year Wait Is Over!

<ul><li>Welcome back to another ‘5 Things We Watch’, where we cover some of the things we look at in the current macro landscape.</li><li>This week will be all about inflation technicalities, as both BLS and Eurostat will update the inflation weightings for 2024 on Friday for US CPI and German HICP, respectively.</li><li>The US is looking VERY solid when scraping the headline numbers on everything from the labor market to PMIs, but some of the strength is simply manufactured in a spreadsheet, leaving us with an iffy gut feeling about what will come later this year.</li></ul>

Welcome back to another ‘5 Things We Watch’, where we cover some of the things we look at in the current macro landscape.This week will be all about inflation technicalities, as both BLS and Eurostat will update the inflation weightings for 2024 on Friday for US CPI and German HICP, respectively.The US is looking VERY solid when scraping the headline numbers on everything from the labor market to PMIs, but some of the strength is simply manufactured in a spreadsheet, leaving us with an iffy gut feeling about what will come later this year.

5 Things We Watch – Inflation updates, Labor Market, Oil, Chinese equities & Growth

United States

IShares US Treasury Bond is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA. The ETF seeks investment results that correspond generally to the price and yield performance, before fees and expenses, of the ICE U.S. Treasury Core Bond Index.

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iShares US Treasury Bond ETF (GOVT US)

US: Receding Inflation Has Put 3 Rate Cuts Back in Play for 2024

Core PCE rose 0.99%MoM annualised in May'24, as genuine QT occurred in Apr-May'24. The 25th July release of 2%QoQ and 2.5%YoY rises in core PCE...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Portfolio Watch: Don’t underestimate the US consumer

Welcome to our weekly Portfolio Watch, where we walk you through the most relevant trading topics for our portfolio and yours. Our bet on the US...

Steno Research

Portfolio Watch: The Real World Is Reflating Again

Welcome to this week’s rundown of our portfolio, its performance, and our most clear-cut conviction for the period ahead. The cocktail of better...

Steno Research

The Weekly Market Monitor – The 34-Year Wait Is Over!

Investments highlighted: Nikkei 225 Index, Japan 10-year yield, DAX Index, Chinese Equities, Walmart, Nvidia, Bitcoin, Gold, Treasuries.

Jeroen Blokland

5 Things We Watch – Inflation updates, Labor Market, Oil, Chinese equities & Growth

Welcome back to another ‘5 Things We Watch’, where we cover some of the things we look at in the current macro landscape. This week will be all...

Steno Research

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