CEO, A. Stotz Investment Research

Dr. Andrew Stotz, CFA

Quantamental Investing to beat Benchmarks

A. Stotz Investment Research

We pick stocks. We construct portfolios. All our effort is focused on how to better pick stocks and construct portfolios. We serve fund management companies, family offices, and high net worth individuals.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

His Majesty King Bhumibol Adulyadej (Rama IX) passed away at Siriraj Hospital in Bangkok yesterday, 13 October 2016, at 3.52pm. Our condolences to all our Thai friends in your time of grief.Thailand is sailing into unchartered waters, considering that nearly everyone alive has only known one King and that his fiat power was immense, built up over years of devotion to the country.We expect that the Thai stock market will be hurt in the near term, but will eventually stabilize.

His Majesty King Bhumibol Adulyadej (Rama IX) passed away at Siriraj Hospital in Bangkok yesterday, 13 October 2016, at 3.52pm. Our condolences to all our Thai friends in your time of grief.Thailand is sailing into unchartered waters, considering that nearly everyone alive has only known one King and that his fiat power was immense, built up over years of devotion to the country.We expect that the Thai stock market will be hurt in the near term, but will eventually stabilize.

Thailand Mourns Fallen King, Healing Will Take Some Time

Founder, Riedel Research

David Riedel

Founder

Independent equity research on GEM Markets

Riedel Research

Riedel provides equity research and analysis to leading financial organizations. By becoming members of a region (Asia, Latin America, Emerging Europe or Global), organizations have access to an integrated set of services including:

Regular company coverage reports
Up-to-date investment decision advice (buy, hold, sell)
Monthly regional and global conference calls
Customized company reports and unlimited on-line access to the program's services.

Riedel provides research coverage of companies across the full range of market capitalization. Experienced research professionals in each market develop company reports and analysis as well as earnings models and projections. Ratings are Buy, Hold and Sell with a focus on compelling investment ideas - both long and short. Downloadable, dynamic earnings models are built to facilitate sensitivity analysis.

Please feel free to contact us for complimentary access to our written research.  We want to show you that our unique research flow can add value and help develop a long-term, high value-add relationship.

Riedel's model focuses on providing clients with unique insights and consulting in addition to unlimited access to all produced research This model allows members to receive exponential benefits for their retainer fees.

<ul>
<li>Obama continues the 'pivot to Asia' by attending the ASEAN meeting in Laos.</li>
<li>ASEAN is a critical component of SE Asian stability, partnership with the US and should be a united front in protesting Chinese intrusions into the South China Sea.</li>
<li>A high-profile spat with Philippine president Duterte was an unfortunate distraction and an unhelpful development for the Philippines which benefits from strong U.S. support.</li>
<li>Thailand and Malaysia look like the best opportunities in ASEAN in the medium-term.</li>
<li>BUY…</li>
</ul>


Obama continues the 'pivot to Asia' by attending the ASEAN meeting in Laos.
ASEAN is a critical component of SE Asian stability, partnership with the US and should be a united front in protesting Chinese intrusions into the South China Sea.
A high-profile spat with Philippine president Duterte was an unfortunate distraction and an unhelpful development for the Philippines which benefits from strong U.S. support.
Thailand and Malaysia look like the best opportunities in ASEAN in the medium-term.
BUY…


Takeaways from ASEAN - Investment Opportunities

Independent Asian Credit Research, Bondcritic

Warut Promboon

Independent Asian Credit Research

Asian Fixed Income/Frontier Market Research

Bondcritic

Bondcritic, established in 2009, is designed to be an independent credit research voice that helps investors gain insights and unbiased analyses on Asian fixed income market. Our mission is to discover deep-value Asian high-yield and distressed bonds with a bottom-up approach, together with the help of our proprietary ESG (Environmental, Social Development, and Governance) model. At the same time, we focus on bringing investment cases of unrated and unloved issuers to the general public.

Debt Capital Markets

THAI CDS USD SR 5Y D14 / Debt Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Here we are revisiting the Thai bond market, as per requests from our Thai readers, to see the impact of the global rate trajectory on Thailand.</li>
<li>The Thai bond market will remain unattractive to foreign institutional investors, in our view.</li>
<li>The attempt to increase yield should involve a material change in Thailand’s financial structure and regulatory mindset.</li>
</ul>


Here we are revisiting the Thai bond market, as per requests from our Thai readers, to see the impact of the global rate trajectory on Thailand.
The Thai bond market will remain unattractive to foreign institutional investors, in our view.
The attempt to increase yield should involve a material change in Thailand’s financial structure and regulatory mindset.


Bond Market Monitor: Thai Bonds Are for Issuers

Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Bangkok Bank reported 4Q21 bottom-line results of THB 6.3 bn, declining THB 591 mn (8.6%) on a linked quarter basis, driven by costs which rose THB 3.5 bn or 21.8%; </li>
<li>Outside of expenses, BBL had a pretty solid quarter with net interest income improving and provisions declining; and </li>
<li>We find that BBL’s annualized net new NPLs were negative, and that reserves likely will begin being reversed in the near-term. </li>
</ul>


Bangkok Bank reported 4Q21 bottom-line results of THB 6.3 bn, declining THB 591 mn (8.6%) on a linked quarter basis, driven by costs which rose THB 3.5 bn or 21.8%; 
Outside of expenses, BBL had a pretty solid quarter with net interest income improving and provisions declining; and 
We find that BBL’s annualized net new NPLs were negative, and that reserves likely will begin being reversed in the near-term. 


*Big Quarter: Kasikornbank (KBANK.TB) (KBank) reported an impressive 4Q20 result of  THB 13.3 bn, increasing THB 6.7 bn (98.5%) linked quarter. Excluding gains, core operating results still improved THB 3.7 bn or 63.8% linked quarter to THB 9.5 bn. The sole driver to this stellar bottom-line performance at KBank was a massive THB 10.1 bn (93.8%) reduction in its loan loss provision – better than 3Q20 guidance;   *Credit Improvement, But KBank Hyper Aggressive On Lower Provisions: The real story for KBank is that its loans under moratorium declined from THB 71.0 bn (40% of outstandings) to THB 46.3 bn (19% of outstandings) on a linked quarter basis. With recoveries of THB 3.4 bn during 4Q20, we find that KBank’s net new NPLs during the period substantially decelerated from 22.3% at 2Q20 to 3.5%. By our calculation, we find that reserve cover remains short by close to THB 13.0 bn (about one quarter of bottom-line performance) – suggesting that the current provision reduction came a quarter too early; and*Negative Operating Jaws: KBank actually posted negative operating jaws during the quarter with linked quarter operating revenues declining THB 532 mn (1.5%) and operating expenses increasing THB 3.8 bn (23.2%) - the C/I ratio 11.5% higher to 57.3%.  Management intends to manage expenses better going forward, but no specifics have as yet been given.

*Big Quarter: Kasikornbank (KBANK.TB) (KBank) reported an impressive 4Q20 result of  THB 13.3 bn, increasing THB 6.7 bn (98.5%) linked quarter. Excluding gains, core operating results still improved THB 3.7 bn or 63.8% linked quarter to THB 9.5 bn. The sole driver to this stellar bottom-line performance at KBank was a massive THB 10.1 bn (93.8%) reduction in its loan loss provision – better than 3Q20 guidance;   *Credit Improvement, But KBank Hyper Aggressive On Lower Provisions: The real story for KBank is that its loans under moratorium declined from THB 71.0 bn (40% of outstandings) to THB 46.3 bn (19% of outstandings) on a linked quarter basis. With recoveries of THB 3.4 bn during 4Q20, we find that KBank’s net new NPLs during the period substantially decelerated from 22.3% at 2Q20 to 3.5%. By our calculation, we find that reserve cover remains short by close to THB 13.0 bn (about one quarter of bottom-line performance) – suggesting that the current provision reduction came a quarter too early; and*Negative Operating Jaws: KBank actually posted negative operating jaws during the quarter with linked quarter operating revenues declining THB 532 mn (1.5%) and operating expenses increasing THB 3.8 bn (23.2%) - the C/I ratio 11.5% higher to 57.3%.  Management intends to manage expenses better going forward, but no specifics have as yet been given. 

Thailand

Italian-Thai Development Public Company Limited is a comprehensive construction contractor, specializing in large-scale civil engineering and infrastructure projects in Thailand and internationally. The company provides services for buildings, industrial plants, pipelines, highways, railways, dams, tunnels, and power plants, and also engages in real estate, manufacturing of construction materials, and mining. It was founded on August 15, 1958, and is headquartered in Bangkok, Thailand.

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Italian-Thai Development (ITD TB)

Thailand Mourns Fallen King, Healing Will Take Some Time

His Majesty King Bhumibol Adulyadej (Rama IX) passed away at Siriraj Hospital in Bangkok yesterday, 13 October 2016, at 3.52pm. Our condolences to...

A. Stotz Investment Research

Takeaways from ASEAN - Investment Opportunities

Obama continues the 'pivot to Asia' by attending the ASEAN meeting in Laos. ASEAN is a critical component of SE Asian stability, partnership with...

David Riedel

Bond Market Monitor: Thai Bonds Are for Issuers

Close to home, we are looking into how the recent global rate trajectory will impact Thailand. We still believe Thai bonds will remain unattractive...

Bondcritic

Bangkok Bank – Positive Credit Turn

BANGKOK BANK: BBL reported 4Q21 bottom-line results of THB 6.3 bn, declining 8.6% QOQ, driven by costs. BBL’s net new NPLs were negative and...

Thomas J. Monaco

Kasikornbank – Less Is More

KASIKORNBANK: KBank reported an impressive 4Q20 result - driven by a 93.8% reduction in provisions, as moratorium loans declined from 40% to 19%....

Thomas J. Monaco

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