Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/itc-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:327:1" rel="noopener">ITC Ltd (ITC IN)</a> will demerge its Hotels business with the ex-date set as 6 January and shareholders receiving 1 share of ITC Hotels for 10 shares of ITC Ltd.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/itc-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:327:1" rel="noopener">ITC Ltd (ITC IN)</a> shareholders will own 100% of ITC Hotels - 60% will be owned directly and 40% will be owned through their shareholding in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/itc-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:327:1" rel="noopener">ITC Ltd (ITC IN)</a>.</li>
<li>There will be a lot of selling in ITC Hotels within a few days of listing from different passive index trackers and that could provide buying opportunities for those interested.</li>
</ul>



ITC Ltd (ITC IN) will demerge its Hotels business with the ex-date set as 6 January and shareholders receiving 1 share of ITC Hotels for 10 shares of ITC Ltd.

ITC Ltd (ITC IN) shareholders will own 100% of ITC Hotels - 60% will be owned directly and 40% will be owned through their shareholding in ITC Ltd (ITC IN).
There will be a lot of selling in ITC Hotels within a few days of listing from different passive index trackers and that could provide buying opportunities for those interested.


ITC Hotels: Index Implications of Demerger from ITC Ltd (ITC IN)

Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>KTX maintains an Outperform rating with a 2025E fair value (FV) of Bt26.75, based on a required return of 5.07%.</li><li>Our valuation metrics indicate that the stock implies an attractive upside potential while the growth prospects for 2024-26E remain strong at a 12% CAGR.</li><li>The peak of profit margins and seasonal factors may limit the share price performance. </li></ul>

KTX maintains an Outperform rating with a 2025E fair value (FV) of Bt26.75, based on a required return of 5.07%.Our valuation metrics indicate that the stock implies an attractive upside potential while the growth prospects for 2024-26E remain strong at a 12% CAGR.The peak of profit margins and seasonal factors may limit the share price performance. 

I-Tail Corporation - In-Line 3Q24 Earnings

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

HDFC securities is the best online trading platform for stocks, IPOs, mutual fund in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>ITC’s 2QFY25 results were below our estimates in all categories except hotel and agribusiness</li><li>Cigarette volume growth of 3% was marginally above our estimate of 2.5% due to a) differentiated variants and premium segments performing well and b) sustained volume clawback from the illicit segment</li><li>Cigarette EBIT margin declined c100bps YoY to 61.4% owing to a sharp escalation in tobacco prices and increased competitive intensity FMCG business grew only 5% YoY, as the benign paper price has provided a lot of local players to become extra competitive in a notebook</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

ITC’s 2QFY25 results were below our estimates in all categories except hotel and agribusinessCigarette volume growth of 3% was marginally above our estimate of 2.5% due to a) differentiated variants and premium segments performing well and b) sustained volume clawback from the illicit segmentCigarette EBIT margin declined c100bps YoY to 61.4% owing to a sharp escalation in tobacco prices and increased competitive intensity FMCG business grew only 5% YoY, as the benign paper price has provided a lot of local players to become extra competitive in a notebookContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

ITC (2QFY25): Core Disappoints, Ancillaries Surprise. Maintain REDUCE

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Axis Direct

Axis Direct

Axis Direct is the flagship brand under Axis Securities Limited, a subsidiary of Axis Bank in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>Strong numbers but missed on margins: ITC delivered strong revenue growth of 16.8% YoY, driven by impressive performance in the Agribusiness (up 47% YoY) and the hotel segment (up 12.1% YoY).</li><li>The Cigarette business grew 7.3% YoY with 2-3% volume growth, in line with estimates, while the FMCG business reported slower growth of 5.4% YoY due to a broad-based slowdown in the FMCG sector.</li><li>However, the Paperboard business was adversely impacted by cheap Chinese imports, weak domestic demand, and rising wood prices.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Strong numbers but missed on margins: ITC delivered strong revenue growth of 16.8% YoY, driven by impressive performance in the Agribusiness (up 47% YoY) and the hotel segment (up 12.1% YoY).The Cigarette business grew 7.3% YoY with 2-3% volume growth, in line with estimates, while the FMCG business reported slower growth of 5.4% YoY due to a broad-based slowdown in the FMCG sector.However, the Paperboard business was adversely impacted by cheap Chinese imports, weak domestic demand, and rising wood prices.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

ITC Ltd - Missed on Margins; Maintain BUY

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Akshat Shah

APAC IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Travel Food Services / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/travel-food-services-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44175:1" rel="noopener">Travel Food Services Ltd (1450229D IN)</a> is looking to raise about US$233m in its India IPO.</li>
<li>Travel Food Services Limited (TFS) operates a network of travel quick service restaurants (Travel QSRs) and private lounges in airports.</li>
<li>We have looked at the company’s past performance in our previous notes. In this note, we will talk about the RHP updates and IPO valuations.</li>
</ul>



Travel Food Services Ltd (1450229D IN) is looking to raise about US$233m in its India IPO.
Travel Food Services Limited (TFS) operates a network of travel quick service restaurants (Travel QSRs) and private lounges in airports.
We have looked at the company’s past performance in our previous notes. In this note, we will talk about the RHP updates and IPO valuations.


Travel Food Services IPO - RHP Updates & Thoughts on Valuation

India

ITC Limited, a member of BAT Group of UK, is a holding company, which has a diversified presence in Cigarettes, Hotels, Paperboards & Specialty Papers, Packaging, Agri Business, Packaged Foods & Confectionery, Branded Apparel, Greeting Cards and other FMCG products.

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ITC Ltd (ITC IN)

ITC Hotels: Index Implications of Demerger from ITC Ltd (ITC IN)

ITC Hotels demerges from ITC on 6 Jan. There will be an SPOS on 6 Jan to determine ITC's price post demerger. There will be a LOT of selling in ITC...

Brian Freitas

I-Tail Corporation - In-Line 3Q24 Earnings

Our valuation metrics indicate that the stock implies an attractive upside potential while the growth prospects for 2024-26E remain strong at a 12%...

Krungthai XSpring

ITC (2QFY25): Core Disappoints, Ancillaries Surprise. Maintain REDUCE

ITC’s 2QFY25 results were below our estimates in all categories except hotel and agribusiness. Cigarette volume growth of 3% was marginally above...

HDFC Securities

ITC Ltd - Missed on Margins; Maintain BUY

Strong numbers but missed on margins: ITC delivered strong revenue growth of 16.8% YoY, driven by impressive performance in the Agribusiness (up...

Axis Direct

Travel Food Services IPO - RHP Updates & Thoughts on Valuation

Travel Food Services (TFS) is looking to raise about US$233m in its India IPO. In this note, we will talk about the RHP updates and IPO valuations.

Akshat Shah

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