Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>This is our first report on Itron Inc., a leading provider of end-to-end solutions that measure, manage and analyze energy and water use.</li><li>The company reported a strong performance for the fourth quarter of 2023 during its recent earnings conference call.</li><li>The company posted year-on-year revenue growth of 23% to $577 million, driven by robust customer demand and improved supply chain balance.</li></ul>

This is our first report on Itron Inc., a leading provider of end-to-end solutions that measure, manage and analyze energy and water use.The company reported a strong performance for the fourth quarter of 2023 during its recent earnings conference call.The company posted year-on-year revenue growth of 23% to $577 million, driven by robust customer demand and improved supply chain balance.

Itron Inc.: Initiation Of Coverage - Major Drivers

Fundamental Short Selling Research

Eric Fernandez, CFA

TwoRiversAnalytics

<ul>
<li>Sales declines, margin compression, cuts in SG&amp;A and cuts in guidance and estimates feature in our Declining Businesses model.  </li>
<li>Declining business shorts tend to be lower beta, have longer time horizons, and tend to produce steadier (although slower) short returns. </li>
<li>Today we are flagging :  Itron, Xerox, Wayfair, and Overstock</li>
</ul>


Sales declines, margin compression, cuts in SG&amp;A and cuts in guidance and estimates feature in our Declining Businesses model.  
Declining business shorts tend to be lower beta, have longer time horizons, and tend to produce steadier (although slower) short returns. 
Today we are flagging :  Itron, Xerox, Wayfair, and Overstock


Declining Business Short Candidates:  Itron, Xerox, Wayfair, Overstock

Selected Quarterly & Annual Newsletters from Funds, Fund Newsletters

Fund Newsletters

Selected Quarterly & Annual Newsletters from Funds

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The Palm Valley Capital Fund invests in small cap stocks. While our Fund is new, its underlying absolute return-based investment strategy is not. We have practiced the same strategy throughout our careers in investment management.</li>
<li>The combination of falling stock prices and attractive small cap multiples appears to present a powerful case for buying aggressively. We do not share this view.</li>
<li>Non-cash share-based compensation accounts for roughly one-third of the collective free cash flow of small caps in the S&amp;P 600 Index.</li>
<li>The current 33x median price-to-free cash flow multiple for better quality small caps (S&amp;P 600) is the highest this cycle.</li>
<li>Market volatility is important to Palm Valley’s absolute return strategy.</li>
</ul>


The Palm Valley Capital Fund invests in small cap stocks. While our Fund is new, its underlying absolute return-based investment strategy is not. We have practiced the same strategy throughout our careers in investment management.
The combination of falling stock prices and attractive small cap multiples appears to present a powerful case for buying aggressively. We do not share this view.
Non-cash share-based compensation accounts for roughly one-third of the collective free cash flow of small caps in the S&amp;P 600 Index.
The current 33x median price-to-free cash flow multiple for better quality small caps (S&amp;P 600) is the highest this cycle.
Market volatility is important to Palm Valley’s absolute return strategy.


Palm Valley Capital Fund Q3 2022 Commentary

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>S&amp;P DJI commenced a market consultation for the S&amp;P Global Water Index on 29 July and that could lead to quite a few changes to the index in October.</li>
<li>We currently see 14 deletions and 10 inclusions for the index in October. Most of the changes will have a high impact from passive fund trading.</li>
<li>There could be more changes in April 2023 once stocks listed in Emerging Markets are included in the index.</li>
</ul>


S&amp;P DJI commenced a market consultation for the S&amp;P Global Water Index on 29 July and that could lead to quite a few changes to the index in October.
We currently see 14 deletions and 10 inclusions for the index in October. Most of the changes will have a high impact from passive fund trading.
There could be more changes in April 2023 once stocks listed in Emerging Markets are included in the index.


S&P Global Water Index: Market Consultation Driven Potential Changes

Sprouts Farmers Market / Equity Bottom-Up

<p>Sales declines, margin compression, cuts in SG&amp;A and cuts in guidance and estimates feature in our Declining Businesses model. </p><p>Declining business shorts tend to be lower beta, have longer time horizons, and tend to produce steadier (although slower) short returns.</p>

Sales declines, margin compression, cuts in SG&amp;A and cuts in guidance and estimates feature in our Declining Businesses model. Declining business shorts tend to be lower beta, have longer time horizons, and tend to produce steadier (although slower) short returns.

Declining Business Short Candidates: Sprouts, Plexus, Ormat, Itron

United States

Itron, Inc. provides solutions for collecting, communicating, and analyzing electric, gas, and water usage data.  The Company sells its products to the utility industry.  Itron designs, manufactures, markets, sells, installs, and services hardware, software, and integrated systems for handheld computer-based electronic meter reading and automatic meter reading systems.

Itron Inc (ITRI US)

Itron Inc.: Initiation Of Coverage - Major Drivers

This is our first report on Itron Inc., a leading provider of end-to-end solutions that measure, manage and analyze energy and water use. The...

Baptista Research

Declining Business Short Candidates: Itron, Xerox, Wayfair, Overstock

Declining business shorts earn profits by following negative business momentum. Today we are flagging: Itron, Xerox, Wayfair, Overstock.

Eric Fernandez, CFA

Palm Valley Capital Fund Q3 2022 Commentary

The Palm Valley Capital Fund invests in small cap stocks. While our Fund is new, its underlying absolute return-based investment strategy is not....

Fund Newsletters

S&P Global Water Index: Market Consultation Driven Potential Changes

S&P DJI's market consultation for the S&P Global Water Index could lead to quite a few changes to the index in October. There are a few potential...

Brian Freitas

Declining Business Short Candidates: Sprouts, Plexus, Ormat, Itron

Declining Business Short Candidates... Our model list of secular decliners, "melting ice cubes", flawed business model candidates featuring...

Eric Fernandez, CFA