'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>• BEST &amp; WORST •</strong></p></div><div>
<p>The best and worst pair from yesterday's announcements is general retailer <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/izumi-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13173:1" rel="noopener">Izumi (8273 JP) </a>and movie house <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toho-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7806:1" rel="noopener">Toho (9602 JP)</a>. </p>
<section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/165/091/original/2020-10-14_06-31-16.png?1602624693" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="165091"></figure></section><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/165/090/original/2020-10-14_06-29-48.png?1602624602" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="165090"></figure><p></p></section>
</div><div><div class="content-caption">Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan Analytics</div></div><hr><div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>DAILY STATS</strong></p></div><hr><div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>49 Quarterly Results</strong></p></div><div><ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li><p><strong>Results Score:</strong> 55% Positive / 8% Neutral / 37% Negative</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Average Results Score Change: </strong>+1.6 points</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Average % Change in Revenue:</strong> -5.6% Quarter YoY / -1.8% Rolling TTM YoY </p></li>
<li><p><strong>Average Operating Profit Margin Change:</strong> -1.8ppt</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Percentage Making Quarterly Losses:</strong> 24%</p></li>
</ul></div><hr><div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>25 Annual • 10 Interim Forecasts/Revisions</strong></p></div><div><ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li><p><strong>Annual Forecast/Revision Score:</strong> 36% Positive / 0% Neutral / 64% Negative</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change:</strong> 50% Positive / 0% Neutral / 40% Negative</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Average Forecast/Revision Score Change:</strong> -4.1 point</p></li>
</ul></div>

• BEST &amp; WORST •
The best and worst pair from yesterday's announcements is general retailer Izumi (8273 JP) and movie house Toho (9602 JP). 

Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan AnalyticsDAILY STATS49 Quarterly Results
Results Score: 55% Positive / 8% Neutral / 37% Negative
Average Results Score Change: +1.6 points
Average % Change in Revenue: -5.6% Quarter YoY / -1.8% Rolling TTM YoY 
Average Operating Profit Margin Change: -1.8ppt
Percentage Making Quarterly Losses: 24%
25 Annual • 10 Interim Forecasts/Revisions
Annual Forecast/Revision Score: 36% Positive / 0% Neutral / 64% Negative
Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change: 50% Positive / 0% Neutral / 40% Negative
Average Forecast/Revision Score Change: -4.1 point


🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 10/​​​​​​​​​​​​13 - Toho, Izumi, J Front Retailing, Koshidaka

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

<p>At least until the Covid-19 crisis hit Japan in January, the majority of retailers were gearing up to announce yet another really good year of financial results for FY2019-20.</p>
<p>Even with the crisis, results were generally better than for FY2018 – although there are big variations by sector.</p>
<p>Those differences are more or less what we’ve come to expect, with traditional formats like department stores continuing to struggle, while those formats that have adopted modern management are doing well.</p>
<p>The following is an in-depth review of Japan's retail sector, providing:</p>
<ul>
<li>An overview of consumer demand and retail performance</li>
<li>Format by format reviews showing growth and profit performance across all the main formats: convenience stores, supermarkets, GMS, consumer electronics, drugstores, homecentres, department stores, apparel, home and other specialty  formats.</li>
<li>Rankings:
<ul>
<li>Market share and size by sector/format</li>
<li>By sales for all retailers with sales over ¥250 billion</li>
<li>By gross and operating margins, split by format and category.</li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
<p>As this is an in-depth insight, the review is split into two parts to make it easier to read.  This is Part II which provides snapshot reviews of each format/sector. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/the-japan-retail-review-winners-and-losers-in-japanese-retailing-part-i" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Part I, which provides a quick overview of all retailing, can be read here</a>.</p>

At least until the Covid-19 crisis hit Japan in January, the majority of retailers were gearing up to announce yet another really good year of financial results for FY2019-20.
Even with the crisis, results were generally better than for FY2018 – although there are big variations by sector.
Those differences are more or less what we’ve come to expect, with traditional formats like department stores continuing to struggle, while those formats that have adopted modern management are doing well.
The following is an in-depth review of Japan's retail sector, providing:

An overview of consumer demand and retail performance
Format by format reviews showing growth and profit performance across all the main formats: convenience stores, supermarkets, GMS, consumer electronics, drugstores, homecentres, department stores, apparel, home and other specialty  formats.
Rankings:

Market share and size by sector/format
By sales for all retailers with sales over ¥250 billion
By gross and operating margins, split by format and category.



As this is an in-depth insight, the review is split into two parts to make it easier to read.  This is Part II which provides snapshot reviews of each format/sector. Part I, which provides a quick overview of all retailing, can be read here.

Japan Retail Review 2019-20 Part II: A Sector by Sector Review of Winners and Losers

<div>
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/146/170/original/2020-07-15_06-47-59.png?1594763291" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="146170"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/146/171/original/2020-07-15_06-49-16.png?1594763379" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="146171"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div>
<p><strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/izumi-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13173:1" rel="noopener">Izumi (8273 JP)</a></strong>- General merchandise retailer Izumi saw an unchanged Results Score and slightly improved Forecast/Revision Score as their initial full-year forecast suggests a bottoming out of the margin deterioration of the last seven quarters. The market-implied growth rate is now negative, and with the Relative Price Score more than half that of the 2017 peak, the shares now offer good value if the margin recovery is to continue. </p>
<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>DAILY STATS</strong></p>
</div><hr><div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>74 Quarterly Results</strong></p></div><div><ul>
<li>
<strong>Results Score:</strong> 23 Positive / 10 Neutral / 41 Negative</li>
<li>
<strong>Average Results Score Change:</strong> -3.4</li>
<li>
<strong>Average % Change in Revenue:</strong> -10.9% Quarter YoY / -2.1% Rolling TTM YoY</li>
<li>
<strong>Average Operating Profit Margin Change: </strong>-2.3ppt</li>
<li>
<strong>Percentage Making Quarterly Losses</strong>: 35%</li>
</ul></div><hr><div><p style="text-align: center;"><br><strong>33 Annual • 10 Interim Forecasts/Revisions</strong></p></div><div><ul>
<li>
<strong>Annual Forecast/Revision Score:</strong> 16 Positive / 4 Neutral / 13 Negative</li>
<li>
<strong>Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change:</strong> 3 Positive / 1 Neutral / 6 Negative</li>
<li>
<strong>Average Forecast/Revision Score Change:</strong> -3.1</li>
</ul></div>


Source • Japan Analytics
Izumi (8273 JP)- General merchandise retailer Izumi saw an unchanged Results Score and slightly improved Forecast/Revision Score as their initial full-year forecast suggests a bottoming out of the margin deterioration of the last seven quarters. The market-implied growth rate is now negative, and with the Relative Price Score more than half that of the 2017 peak, the shares now offer good value if the margin recovery is to continue. 
DAILY STATS
74 Quarterly Results

Results Score: 23 Positive / 10 Neutral / 41 Negative

Average Results Score Change: -3.4

Average % Change in Revenue: -10.9% Quarter YoY / -2.1% Rolling TTM YoY

Average Operating Profit Margin Change: -2.3ppt

Percentage Making Quarterly Losses: 35%
 33 Annual • 10 Interim Forecasts/Revisions

Annual Forecast/Revision Score: 16 Positive / 4 Neutral / 13 Negative

Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change: 3 Positive / 1 Neutral / 6 Negative

Average Forecast/Revision Score Change: -3.1


🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 14th July - Uzumi, UUUM, Toho, Saizeriya, Create, Rakus

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/127/809/original/2020-04-14_04-54-14.png?1586807683" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="127809"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>A CLEARER VISION</strong> - Softbank last made an earnings forecast in December 2010; however, the startling losses at the Vision Fund have prompted them to be more forthcoming, perhaps not entirely unrelated to their buyback programme.  The revisions amount to a cut of 3% to forecast for annual operating profit and net income for the market overall. We will leave the implications for the NAV discount to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/kirk-boodry" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:1920" rel="noopener">Kirk Boodry</a> and others to fill in; however, we would note that the more traditional revised BPS is now 1.26. </p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/127/781/original/2020-04-13_18-22-38.png?1586769778" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="127781"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • SNA</div><p><strong>HOKKAIDO'S SECOND WAVE</strong> - Hokkaido has just reimposed a prefectural-level emergency having seen its second wave of infections after lifting restrictions on 19th March. Ten prefecture are imposing various degrees of quasi-lockdowns after Ishikawa-ken followed Aichi's example yesterday.</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/127/816/original/File%202020-04-14%207%2027%2032.jpeg?1586816887" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="127816"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • TMG <figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/127/818/original/IMG_1317.jpg?1586817094" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="127818"></figure>
</div><div class="content-caption">Source • NHK</div><p><strong>MONDAY CASE COUNT</strong> - Tokyo saw just 91 new confirmed cases yesterday; however, Monday's tend to be quieter days due to a lower amount of testing. The rest of the country saw 125 new cases - only three prefectures saw more than ten new cases.</p><p><strong>NOT SO FULL DISCLOSURE</strong> - Japan's FSA is planning to postpone the deadline for submitting yuho annual reports for listed companies closing in March for three months, until the end of September, given the impact of the COVID-19.  The unaudited short-form kessan tanshin statements will continue, however, certain items including data on shareholdings will be delayed. Annual General Meetings for March year-end companies that generally take place in June will also have to be postponed.</p><p>In the <strong>DETAIL</strong> below, we shall review the large-cap results, revisions and initial forecast announcements made yesterday. The positive/neutral/negative balance for all 63 results was 29:9:25; for the 27 revisions/forecasts, the split was 11:1:15. </p>

Source • Japan AnalyticsA CLEARER VISION - Softbank last made an earnings forecast in December 2010; however, the startling losses at the Vision Fund have prompted them to be more forthcoming, perhaps not entirely unrelated to their buyback programme.  The revisions amount to a cut of 3% to forecast for annual operating profit and net income for the market overall. We will leave the implications for the NAV discount to Kirk Boodry and others to fill in; however, we would note that the more traditional revised BPS is now 1.26. Source • SNAHOKKAIDO'S SECOND WAVE - Hokkaido has just reimposed a prefectural-level emergency having seen its second wave of infections after lifting restrictions on 19th March. Ten prefecture are imposing various degrees of quasi-lockdowns after Ishikawa-ken followed Aichi's example yesterday.Source • TMG 
Source • NHKMONDAY CASE COUNT - Tokyo saw just 91 new confirmed cases yesterday; however, Monday's tend to be quieter days due to a lower amount of testing. The rest of the country saw 125 new cases - only three prefectures saw more than ten new cases.NOT SO FULL DISCLOSURE - Japan's FSA is planning to postpone the deadline for submitting yuho annual reports for listed companies closing in March for three months, until the end of September, given the impact of the COVID-19.  The unaudited short-form kessan tanshin statements will continue, however, certain items including data on shareholdings will be delayed. Annual General Meetings for March year-end companies that generally take place in June will also have to be postponed.In the DETAIL below, we shall review the large-cap results, revisions and initial forecast announcements made yesterday. The positive/neutral/negative balance for all 63 results was 29:9:25; for the 27 revisions/forecasts, the split was 11:1:15. 

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Revisions & Results 13th April - A Clearer Vision

Equity Bottom-Up

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/izumi-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13173:1" rel="noopener">Izumi Co Ltd (8273 JP)</a> has taken a 20% share in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/maruyoshi-center-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6892:1" rel="noopener">Maruyoshi Center (7515 JP)</a>, the last major independent supermarket chain in Shikoku.</p>
<p>Coupled with Izumi’s new partnership with Seven &amp; I, the move opens up the battle lines between Izumi and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aeon-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3:1" rel="noopener">Aeon Co Ltd (8267 JP)</a> as the only two major FMCG retailers in southern Japan.</p>

Izumi Co Ltd (8273 JP) has taken a 20% share in Maruyoshi Center (7515 JP), the last major independent supermarket chain in Shikoku.
Coupled with Izumi’s new partnership with Seven &amp; I, the move opens up the battle lines between Izumi and Aeon Co Ltd (8267 JP) as the only two major FMCG retailers in southern Japan.

Izumi and Maruyoshi Center Become Affiliates, Furthers Proxy War with Aeon

Japan

IZUMI CO., LTD. operates shopping centers mainly in the Chugoku area, selling food products, clothing, and household utensils.  The Company also operates real estate business and credit card services.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
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Izumi Co Ltd (8273 JP)

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 10/13 - Toho, Izumi, J Front Retailing, Koshidaka

The best and worst pair from yesterday's announcements is general retailer Izumi (8273 JP) and movie house Toho (9602 JP).

Campbell Gunn

Japan Retail Review 2019-20 Part II: A Sector by Sector Review of Winners and Losers

At least until the Covid-19 crisis hit Japan in January, the majority of retailers were gearing up to announce yet another really good year of...

Michael Causton

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 14th July - Uzumi, UUUM, Toho, Saizeriya, Create, Rakus

Izumi (8273 JP)- General merchandise retailer Izumi saw an unchanged Results Score and slightly improved Forecast/Revision Score as their initial...

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Revisions & Results 13th April - A Clearer Vision

A CLEARER VISION - Softbank last made an earnings forecast in December 2010; however, the startling losses at the Vision Fund have prompted them to...

Campbell Gunn

Izumi and Maruyoshi Center Become Affiliates, Furthers Proxy War with Aeon

Izumi Co Ltd (8273 JP) has taken a 20% share in Maruyoshi Center (7515 JP), the last major independent supermarket chain in Shikoku. Coupled with...

Michael Causton

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 10/​​​​​​​​​​​​13 - Toho, Izumi, J Front Retailing, Koshidaka

The best and worst pair from yesterday's announcements is general retailer Izumi (8273 JP) and movie house Toho (9602 JP).

Campbell Gunn

Japan Retail Review 2019-20 Part II: A Sector by Sector Review of Winners and Losers

At least until the Covid-19 crisis hit Japan in January, the majority of retailers were gearing up to announce yet another really good year of...

Michael Causton

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 14th July - Uzumi, UUUM, Toho, Saizeriya, Create, Rakus

Izumi (8273 JP)- General merchandise retailer Izumi saw an unchanged Results Score and slightly improved Forecast/Revision Score as their initial...

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Revisions & Results 13th April - A Clearer Vision

A CLEARER VISION - Softbank last made an earnings forecast in December 2010; however, the startling losses at the Vision Fund have prompted them to...

Campbell Gunn

Izumi and Maruyoshi Center Become Affiliates, Furthers Proxy War with Aeon

Izumi Co Ltd (8273 JP) has taken a 20% share in Maruyoshi Center (7515 JP), the last major independent supermarket chain in Shikoku. Coupled with...

Michael Causton

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 10/13 - Toho, Izumi, J Front Retailing, Koshidaka