Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/matsuya-co-ltd-25630769-1690-43a0-a02d-75db9e9aac59" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17802:1" rel="noopener">Matsuya Co Ltd (8237 JP)</a> had a terrific FY2024, posting a new sales record at its Ginza store, the first since 1992. </li>
<li>There are worries that this year or next will be the peak given the ongoing decline in sales to locals, and if a strengthening Yen puts paid to tourist largesse.</li>
<li>The same headwinds are hitting all the major department store firms, including <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/isetan-mitsukoshi-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18871:1" rel="noopener">Isetan Mitsukoshi Holdings Ltd (3099 JP),</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/takashimaya-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:370:1" rel="noopener">Takashimaya (8233 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/j-front-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8947:1" rel="noopener">J Front Retailing (3086 JP).</a>
</li>
</ul>



Matsuya Co Ltd (8237 JP) had a terrific FY2024, posting a new sales record at its Ginza store, the first since 1992. 
There are worries that this year or next will be the peak given the ongoing decline in sales to locals, and if a strengthening Yen puts paid to tourist largesse.
The same headwinds are hitting all the major department store firms, including Isetan Mitsukoshi Holdings Ltd (3099 JP),Takashimaya (8233 JP) and J Front Retailing (3086 JP).



Matsuya’s Record Sales May Signal Peak for Sector

Japanese Equity Specialist, Ortus Advisors

Andrew Jackson

Japanese Equity Specialist

Ortus Advisors

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Pockets of strength in US Tech Friday with Coreweave, SMCI, Micron up with semi-caps generally lower after ASML nos.</li>
<li>Potential replacements for a NTT Data NKY deletion should continue to find a bid.</li>
<li>JP retailers J-Front and Matsuya squeezed sharply Friday after social media post highlights activist involvement.</li>
</ul>


Pockets of strength in US Tech Friday with Coreweave, SMCI, Micron up with semi-caps generally lower after ASML nos.
Potential replacements for a NTT Data NKY deletion should continue to find a bid.
JP retailers J-Front and Matsuya squeezed sharply Friday after social media post highlights activist involvement.


Japan Morning Connection: Markets Uncertain to Start the Week After Moody's US Downgrade

Chief Executive Officer, Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Chief Executive Officer

Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Emmer Capital Partners is an Asia Pacific focused financial advisory firm engaging in strategic financial asset allocation advice, bespoke thematic research and advising early-stage companies and connecting them to investors. Emmer Capital provides macro-economic and multi-asset investment strategy inputs to institutions, family offices, private wealth managers, private equity, and corporate boards directly and through independent research platforms. Emmer Capital also advises a wide range of startup companies on fund raising and business strategy. Emmer Capital's active engagement with the print and electronic media reaches a broad spectrum of investors across the globe.

<ul>
<li>We identified overvalued, over-leveraged, low growth stocks on EPS growth, high PEG, low ROE, high P/BV, high leverage.  Clients opined that EBITDA is more stable earnings parameter for such stocks.</li>
<li>Based on clients’ feedback we now screen the stocks using EBITDA growth as the earnings growth parameter and EV as the corresponding valuation parameter.</li>
<li>Our screen yields 30 stocks - 20 from Japan (largely property/REIT) and 10 from HK/China. 7 stocks are common to the EPS-PE and EBITDA-EV lists - mostly from Japanese property.</li>
</ul>


We identified overvalued, over-leveraged, low growth stocks on EPS growth, high PEG, low ROE, high P/BV, high leverage.  Clients opined that EBITDA is more stable earnings parameter for such stocks.
Based on clients’ feedback we now screen the stocks using EBITDA growth as the earnings growth parameter and EV as the corresponding valuation parameter.
Our screen yields 30 stocks - 20 from Japan (largely property/REIT) and 10 from HK/China. 7 stocks are common to the EPS-PE and EBITDA-EV lists - mostly from Japanese property.


Asian Equities: Overvalued, Over-Leveraged, Low Growth – a Different Look

<ul>
<li>Until quite recently, Nagoya had seven department stores but will soon have just four. </li>
<li>This follows Meitetsu’s decision to close its flagship store to clear the way for a major redevelopment of the station area.</li>
<li>The new development will include retail and so bring some competition to Takashimaya, which now dominates department store retailing in the city, but not before 2033.</li>
</ul>


Until quite recently, Nagoya had seven department stores but will soon have just four. 
This follows Meitetsu’s decision to close its flagship store to clear the way for a major redevelopment of the station area.
The new development will include retail and so bring some competition to Takashimaya, which now dominates department store retailing in the city, but not before 2033.


Meitetsu Transport (9077JP) Confirms Closure of Last Department Store

<ul>
<li>That department stores in city centres did well in 2024 won’t be a surprise to anyone given the support from inbound tourists buying luxury goods on a cheap Yen.</li>
<li>But that the sector overall managed to exceed 2019 sales is an achievement given the ongoing contraction in the regions.</li>
<li>The gap is widening further between the best and the rest but the top firms look set to continue increasing profits as they work to add value to existing buildings.</li>
</ul>


That department stores in city centres did well in 2024 won’t be a surprise to anyone given the support from inbound tourists buying luxury goods on a cheap Yen.
But that the sector overall managed to exceed 2019 sales is an achievement given the ongoing contraction in the regions.
The gap is widening further between the best and the rest but the top firms look set to continue increasing profits as they work to add value to existing buildings.


Department Store Sales Higher than Pre-Covid

Japan

J. FRONT RETAILING CO., Ltd. is a holding company established through the merger of Daimaru and Matsuzakaya.  J. FRONT RETAILING operates department stores and supermarkets. The Company also manages subsidiaries which operate in wholesale businesses.

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J Front Retailing (3086 JP)

Matsuya’s Record Sales May Signal Peak for Sector

Matsuya had a strong FY2024 with record sales, but this may be the peak due to falling local sales and impact of strong Yen on tourist spending....

Michael Causton

Japan Morning Connection: Markets Uncertain to Start the Week After Moody's US Downgrade

Quantum computing names up after positive news from QUBT. Short squeeze for JP retailers after social media post about activist involvement. Recent...

Andrew Jackson

Asian Equities: Overvalued, Over-Leveraged, Low Growth – a Different Look

We modify our "stocks to avoid" list using EBITDA as the earnings parameter & EV as the valuation parameter. We screen 30 stocks, mostly from...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Meitetsu Transport (9077JP) Confirms Closure of Last Department Store

Nagoya's department store landscape is changing as Meitetsu closes flagship store for redevelopment, bringing competition to Takashimaya by 2033.

Michael Causton

Department Store Sales Higher than Pre-Covid

City center department stores thrived in 2024 thanks to tourist spending, while the sector as a whole surpassed 2019 sales despite regional...

Michael Causton

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Matsuya’s Record Sales May Signal Peak for Sector

​Matsuya had a strong FY2024 with record sales, but this may be the peak due to falling local sales and impact of strong Yen on tourist spending....

Michael Causton

Japan Morning Connection: Markets Uncertain to Start the Week After Moody's US Downgrade

Quantum computing names up after positive news from QUBT. Short squeeze for JP retailers after social media post about activist involvement. Recent...

Andrew Jackson

Asian Equities: Overvalued, Over-Leveraged, Low Growth – a Different Look

​We modify our "stocks to avoid" list using EBITDA as the earnings parameter & EV as the valuation parameter. We screen 30 stocks, mostly from...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Meitetsu Transport (9077JP) Confirms Closure of Last Department Store

​Nagoya's department store landscape is changing as Meitetsu closes flagship store for redevelopment, bringing competition to Takashimaya by 2033.

Michael Causton

Department Store Sales Higher than Pre-Covid

​City center department stores thrived in 2024 thanks to tourist spending, while the sector as a whole surpassed 2019 sales despite regional...

Michael Causton

Matsuya had a strong FY2024 with record sales, but this may be the peak due to falling local sales and impact of strong Yen on tourist spending....

We modify our "stocks to avoid" list using EBITDA as the earnings parameter & EV as the valuation parameter. We screen 30 stocks, mostly from...

Nagoya's department store landscape is changing as Meitetsu closes flagship store for redevelopment, bringing competition to Takashimaya by 2033.

City center department stores thrived in 2024 thanks to tourist spending, while the sector as a whole surpassed 2019 sales despite regional...