Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>ZTO Express reported another set of weak results after the US close on November 19</li>
<li>Although Q3 unit prices rose slightly, unit costs increased by much more, crushing margins</li>
<li>On both sides of the price-volume tradeoff, ZTO continues to lose profitability | AVOID</li>
</ul>


ZTO Express reported another set of weak results after the US close on November 19
Although Q3 unit prices rose slightly, unit costs increased by much more, crushing margins
On both sides of the price-volume tradeoff, ZTO continues to lose profitability | AVOID


ZTO Express Q325 Results | Revenue, ASPs Both Up Y/Y | But Earnings, Margins Both Down | AVOID

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of November 14th.</li>
<li>The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.</li>
<li>We highlight flows for Alibaba, Xiaomi, CNOOC, ICBC, Ping An Insurance, Petrochina.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of November 14th.
The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.
We highlight flows for Alibaba, Xiaomi, CNOOC, ICBC, Ping An Insurance, Petrochina.


HK Connect Flows Weekly (Nov 14th): Alibaba, Xiaomi, CNOOC, ICBC, Ping An Insurance, Petrochina

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of November 7th.</li>
<li>The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.</li>
<li>We highlight flows for Xiaomi, CNOOC, SMIC, Meituan, ICBC, China Mobile, Tencent, Hua Hong Semiconductor.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of November 7th.
The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.
We highlight flows for Xiaomi, CNOOC, SMIC, Meituan, ICBC, China Mobile, Tencent, Hua Hong Semiconductor.


HK Connect Flows Weekly (Nov 7th): Xiaomi, CNOOC, SMIC, Meituan, ICBC, China Mobile, Tencent

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ane-cayman-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35025:1" rel="noopener">ANE Cayman Inc (9956 HK)</a> has disclosed a preconditional scheme privatisation offer from a consortium. The offer is cash (HK$12.18) or scrip (One TopCo Class A Share per scheme share). </li>
<li>The precondition relates to SAMR approval. The scheme vote is low risk, as the offer is attractive relative to historical ranges and peer multiples. </li>
<li>The offer price is final. Mr Wang Yongjun, the former chairman, holds a blocking stake but should be supportive. Timing is the key risk. </li>
</ul>



ANE Cayman Inc (9956 HK) has disclosed a preconditional scheme privatisation offer from a consortium. The offer is cash (HK$12.18) or scrip (One TopCo Class A Share per scheme share). 
The precondition relates to SAMR approval. The scheme vote is low risk, as the offer is attractive relative to historical ranges and peer multiples. 
The offer price is final. Mr Wang Yongjun, the former chairman, holds a blocking stake but should be supportive. Timing is the key risk. 


ANE (9956 HK): Consortium’s Attractive Preconditional Offer

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ane-cayman-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35025:1" rel="noopener">ANE Cayman Inc (9956 HK)</a> is on a halt “<em>pending the release of an announcement pursuant to the Code on Takeovers and Mergers which contains inside information of the Company.</em>” </li>
<li>I expect the halt is related to a potential privatisation bid from either a trade buyer, such as one of the Tongda operators, or an MBO sponsored by Centurium Capital.</li>
<li>I use several methods to triangulate the likely offer price, which suggests a range of HK$11.34-11.80 per share, with an average of HK$11.55, a 14% premium to the last close.</li>
</ul>



ANE Cayman Inc (9956 HK) is on a halt “pending the release of an announcement pursuant to the Code on Takeovers and Mergers which contains inside information of the Company.” 
I expect the halt is related to a potential privatisation bid from either a trade buyer, such as one of the Tongda operators, or an MBO sponsored by Centurium Capital.
I use several methods to triangulate the likely offer price, which suggests a range of HK$11.34-11.80 per share, with an average of HK$11.55, a 14% premium to the last close.


ANE Cayman (9956 HK): Trade Buyer or Centurium Capital to Launch a Privatisation Offer?

China

J&T Global Express is an investment holding company primarily engaged in providing integrated express delivery and global logistics services. The company offers parcel sorting, line-haul transportation, dispatching, cross-border services, and cash-on-delivery. It was founded in 2015 and is headquartered in Shanghai, China.

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J&T Global Express (1519 HK)

ZTO Express Q325 Results | Revenue, ASPs Both Up Y/Y | But Earnings, Margins Both Down | AVOID

ZTO reported another weak set of results on Wednesday, as margins collapsed in Q3 despite modest pricing improvement. Oh, and management cut volume...

Tracking Traffic

HK Connect Flows Weekly (Nov 14th): Alibaba, Xiaomi, CNOOC, ICBC, Ping An Insurance, Petrochina

We analyzed southbound Hong Kong connect flows in the past week and highlighted flows for Alibaba, Xiaomi, CNOOC, ICBC, Ping An Insurance, Petrochina.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

HK Connect Flows Weekly (Nov 7th): Xiaomi, CNOOC, SMIC, Meituan, ICBC, China Mobile, Tencent

We analyzed southbound Hong Kong connect flows in the past week and highlighted flows for Xiaomi, CNOOC, SMIC, Meituan, ICBC, China Mobile,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

ANE (9956 HK): Consortium’s Attractive Preconditional Offer

The scheme vote is low risk, as the offer is attractive relative to historical ranges and peer multiples. Timing is the key risk.

Arun George

ANE Cayman (9956 HK): Trade Buyer or Centurium Capital to Launch a Privatisation Offer?

On 17 September, the Board received a conditional privatisation proposal from Centurium Capital and Temasek. No price was disclosed. Nearly a month...

Arun George

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