Index Rebal/Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal/Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The HSCEI serves as a benchmark to reflect the overall performance of the top 50 "Mainland China" securities listed in Hong Kong.</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes and capping flows for HSCEI index rebal event in September 2025.</li>
<li>We expect one ADD and one DEL for September 2025. We also estimate there to be US$269mn in one-way flows.</li>
</ul>


The HSCEI serves as a benchmark to reflect the overall performance of the top 50 "Mainland China" securities listed in Hong Kong.
In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes and capping flows for HSCEI index rebal event in September 2025.
We expect one ADD and one DEL for September 2025. We also estimate there to be US$269mn in one-way flows.


Quiddity Leaderboard HSCEI Sep25: Final Expectations; One Index Change Possible

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of July 11th.</li>
<li>The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.</li>
<li>We highlight flows for Meituan, CCB, SMIC, Li Auto, Zhongan Online, Alibaba, CMB, Pop Mart Intl, Tencent, China Mobile.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of July 11th.
The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.
We highlight flows for Meituan, CCB, SMIC, Li Auto, Zhongan Online, Alibaba, CMB, Pop Mart Intl, Tencent, China Mobile.


HK Connect Flows Weekly (Jul 11th): Meituan, CCB, SMIC, Li Auto, Zhongan Online, Alibaba, CMB

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>J&amp;T reported an impressive set of operating data in 2Q25, with parcel volume growing at an average of 24% YoY, driven by the robust SEA market (+66% YoY).</li><li>We revise our earnings forecast in 2025E/26E by +18%/-2%, after revising up our parcel volume forecast with a slightly reduction on pricing assumptions.</li><li>Our SOTP-based TP is revised up to HK$10 (from HK$6.9). <em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></li></ul>

J&amp;T reported an impressive set of operating data in 2Q25, with parcel volume growing at an average of 24% YoY, driven by the robust SEA market (+66% YoY).We revise our earnings forecast in 2025E/26E by +18%/-2%, after revising up our parcel volume forecast with a slightly reduction on pricing assumptions.Our SOTP-based TP is revised up to HK$10 (from HK$6.9). Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

J&T Express (1519 HK) - Impressive Parcel Volume Growth in SEA

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>The review period for the September rebalance of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">HSCEI INDEX</a> ended on 30 June, the results will be announced on 22 August and will be implemented on 5 September.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pop-mart-international-group-l" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29016:1" rel="noopener">Pop Mart International Group L (9992 HK)</a> could be added to the index while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/j-t-global-express-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36819:1" rel="noopener">J&amp;T Global Express (1519 HK)</a> could be deleted from the index.</li>
<li>There is a possibility of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pop-mart-international-group-l" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29016:1" rel="noopener">Pop Mart International Group L (9992 HK)</a> being added to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)</a> as well.</li>
</ul>


The review period for the September rebalance of the HSCEI INDEX ended on 30 June, the results will be announced on 22 August and will be implemented on 5 September.

Pop Mart International Group L (9992 HK) could be added to the index while J&amp;T Global Express (1519 HK) could be deleted from the index.
There is a possibility of Pop Mart International Group L (9992 HK) being added to the Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) as well.


HSCEI Index Rebalance Preview: Pop Mart (9992 HK) Could Replace J&T Global (1519 HK)

<ul>
<li>We analyze statistics on top repurchases over one week, one month, one quarter and one year periods ended on Jun 13th based on HKEx daily reports.</li>
<li>In the past 7 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were Tencent (700 HK), AIA (1299 HK), Guoquan Food (2517 HK).</li>
<li>In the past 30 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were Tencent (700 HK), AIA (1299 HK), Bilibili (9626 HK).</li>
</ul>


We analyze statistics on top repurchases over one week, one month, one quarter and one year periods ended on Jun 13th based on HKEx daily reports.
In the past 7 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were Tencent (700 HK), AIA (1299 HK), Guoquan Food (2517 HK).
In the past 30 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were Tencent (700 HK), AIA (1299 HK), Bilibili (9626 HK).


Hong Kong Buybacks Weekly (Jun 13th): Tencent, AIA, Guoquan Food

China

J&T Global Express is an investment holding company primarily engaged in providing integrated express delivery and global logistics services. The company offers parcel sorting, line-haul transportation, dispatching, cross-border services, and cash-on-delivery. It was founded in 2015 and is headquartered in Shanghai, China.

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J&T Global Express (1519 HK)

Quiddity Leaderboard HSCEI Sep25: Final Expectations; One Index Change Possible

Pop Mart (9992 HK) could replace J&T Global (1519 HK) in the HSCEI index in September 2025. If this change takes place, there could be one-way...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

HK Connect Flows Weekly (Jul 11th): Meituan, CCB, SMIC, Li Auto, Zhongan Online, Alibaba, CMB

We analyzed southbound Hong Kong connect flows in the past week and highlighted flows for Meituan, CCB, SMIC, Li Auto, Zhongan Online, Alibaba,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

J&T Express (1519 HK) - Impressive Parcel Volume Growth in SEA

J&T reported an impressive set of operating data in 2Q25, with parcel volume growing at an average of 24% YoY, driven by the robust SEA market...

CMB International

HSCEI Index Rebalance Preview: Pop Mart (9992 HK) Could Replace J&T Global (1519 HK)

Pop Mart could replace J&T Global in the HSCEI in Sep. There will be capping and FAF changes for stocks. Shorts have been increasing in both...

Brian Freitas

Hong Kong Buybacks Weekly (Jun 13th): Tencent, AIA, Guoquan Food

We analyzed the Hong Kong buyback data in the past week and highlight the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares were Tencent (700 HK),...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

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