Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>September &amp; Q324 data confirm slowing of domestic parcel volume growth</li>
<li>Y/Y ASP declines also moderated in Q324, which is beneficial to margins</li>
<li>Meanwhile, X-border parcel volume growth continued to surge last month</li>
</ul>


September &amp; Q324 data confirm slowing of domestic parcel volume growth
Y/Y ASP declines also moderated in Q324, which is beneficial to margins
Meanwhile, X-border parcel volume growth continued to surge last month


Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | Q3 Volume Growth & Price Declines Both Moderated | (October 2024)

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

China Resources Beverage / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-resources-beverage" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:41984:1" rel="noopener">China Resources Beverage (2460 HK)</a> priced its IPO at HK$14.50 per share to raise the gross proceeds of US$649 million. The shares will start trading on 23 October.</li>
<li>The IPO was discussed in <strong><em><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/cr-beverage-ipo-the-bull-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:157572" rel="noopener">CR Beverage IPO: The Bull Case</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/cr-beverage-ipo-the-bear-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:158613" rel="noopener">CR Beverage IPO: The Bear Case</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/cr-beverage-ipo-the-investment-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:161273" rel="noopener">CR Beverage IPO: The Investment Case</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/cr-beverage-2460-hk-ipo-valuation-insights" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:162418" rel="noopener">CR Beverage (2460 HK) IPO: Valuation Insights</a></em></strong>. </li>
<li>The market sentiment of the peers has remained unchanged since the IPO launch. CR Beverage is fairly valued at the IPO price.</li>
</ul>



China Resources Beverage (2460 HK) priced its IPO at HK$14.50 per share to raise the gross proceeds of US$649 million. The shares will start trading on 23 October.
The IPO was discussed in CR Beverage IPO: The Bull Case, CR Beverage IPO: The Bear Case, CR Beverage IPO: The Investment Case, CR Beverage (2460 HK) IPO: Valuation Insights. 
The market sentiment of the peers has remained unchanged since the IPO launch. CR Beverage is fairly valued at the IPO price.


<ul>
<li>SF Holding proposes interim &amp; special dividends for owners of A-shares</li>
<li>Combined cash dividend totals 1.40 CNY per share, yielding about 3.3%</li>
<li>Meeting October 29 to approve dividends, Q3 results, planned HK listing</li>
</ul>


SF Holding proposes interim &amp; special dividends for owners of A-shares
Combined cash dividend totals 1.40 CNY per share, yielding about 3.3%
Meeting October 29 to approve dividends, Q3 results, planned HK listing


SF Holding Pre-IPO: Proposed Interim & Special Dividends of 1.40 CNY Per Share Ahead of HK Listing

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The WisdomTree Emerging Markets ex-State-Owned Enterprises Index measures the performance of emerging markets stocks that are not state-owned enterprises.</li>
<li>The changes at the October rebalance were announced after market close on 4 October with implementation scheduled at the close on 16 October.</li>
<li>There are 154 adds and 80 deletes for the index with an estimated round-trip trade of US$300m.</li>
</ul>


The WisdomTree Emerging Markets ex-State-Owned Enterprises Index measures the performance of emerging markets stocks that are not state-owned enterprises.
The changes at the October rebalance were announced after market close on 4 October with implementation scheduled at the close on 16 October.
There are 154 adds and 80 deletes for the index with an estimated round-trip trade of US$300m.


WisdomTree Emerging Markets Ex-State-Owned Enterprises Index Rebalance: US$300m Round-Trip Trade

China New Economy Equity Analyst, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Robert McKay

China New Economy Equity Analyst

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

<ul>
<li>Amid fierce low-price competition in 1H24, low-end couriers  benefited from merchant demand for cheap logistics. However, new platform policies suggest greater emphasis on quality logistics and O2O in 2H24;</li>
<li>The shift towards higher-end logistics is manifesting through O2O. Spearheaded by Meituan, O2O is an experiment to copy Coupang's business model in China. We believe there is a sizable market;</li>
<li>We see ZTO as best positioned amid the changing environment, JDL least impacted, with J&amp;T and SFE in the least favorable positions.</li>
</ul>


Amid fierce low-price competition in 1H24, low-end couriers  benefited from merchant demand for cheap logistics. However, new platform policies suggest greater emphasis on quality logistics and O2O in 2H24;
The shift towards higher-end logistics is manifesting through O2O. Spearheaded by Meituan, O2O is an experiment to copy Coupang's business model in China. We believe there is a sizable market;
We see ZTO as best positioned amid the changing environment, JDL least impacted, with J&amp;T and SFE in the least favorable positions.


Logistics Shift to Quality Amid Evolved Ecommerce Plans

China

J&T Global Express is an investment holding company primarily engaged in providing integrated express delivery and global logistics services. The company offers parcel sorting, line-haul transportation, dispatching, cross-border services, and cash-on-delivery. It was founded in 2015 and is headquartered in Shanghai, China.

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J&T Global Express (1519 HK)

Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | Q3 Volume Growth & Price Declines Both Moderated | (October 2024)

Parcel volume growth moderated for the express companies in Q3, but so did price declines. We expect the Chinese express companies to report...

Tracking Traffic

CR Beverage (2460 HK) IPO: Trading Debut

The market sentiment of the peers has remained unchanged since the IPO launch. CR Beverage is fairly valued at the IPO price.

Arun George

WisdomTree Emerging Markets Ex-State-Owned Enterprises Index Rebalance: US$300m Round-Trip Trade

There are 154 adds/80 deletes for the WisdomTree Emerging Markets ex-State-Owned Enterprises Index. Round-trip trade is US$300m. There have been...

Brian Freitas

Logistics Shift to Quality Amid Evolved Ecommerce Plans

In 2H24, low-end couriers face shift towards quality logistics and O2O, with ZTO and Meituan best positioned and SFE most negatively affected

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | Q3 Volume Growth & Price Declines Both Moderated | (October 2024)

Parcel volume growth moderated for the express companies in Q3, but so did price declines. We expect the Chinese express companies to report...

Tracking Traffic

CR Beverage (2460 HK) IPO: Trading Debut

The market sentiment of the peers has remained unchanged since the IPO launch. CR Beverage is fairly valued at the IPO price.

Arun George

SF Holding Pre-IPO: Proposed Interim & Special Dividends of 1.40 CNY Per Share Ahead of HK Listing

China's leading express company, SF Holding, has announced interim and special dividends to be paid to existing shareholders ahead of a planned...

Tracking Traffic

WisdomTree Emerging Markets Ex-State-Owned Enterprises Index Rebalance: US$300m Round-Trip Trade

There are 154 adds/80 deletes for the WisdomTree Emerging Markets ex-State-Owned Enterprises Index. Round-trip trade is US$300m. There have been...

Brian Freitas

Logistics Shift to Quality Amid Evolved Ecommerce Plans

​In 2H24, low-end couriers face shift towards quality logistics and O2O, with ZTO and Meituan best positioned and SFE most negatively affected

Blue Lotus Research Institute

In 2H24, low-end couriers face shift towards quality logistics and O2O, with ZTO and Meituan best positioned and SFE most negatively affected