Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Lifted by strength in SE Asia and Others, total parcel volume growth in Q126 reached 26%</li>
<li>J &amp; T's China volume in Q126 grew by a modest 8% Y/Y -- a bit faster than the market</li>
<li>Chinese ground parcel fulfillment segment has slowed -- other modes are now rising</li>
</ul>


Lifted by strength in SE Asia and Others, total parcel volume growth in Q126 reached 26%
J &amp; T's China volume in Q126 grew by a modest 8% Y/Y -- a bit faster than the market
Chinese ground parcel fulfillment segment has slowed -- other modes are now rising


J&T Global Express Q126 Parcel Volumes | Strong Growth, but Only Outside of China

<ul>
<li>In FY25, for the first time, all of J &amp; T's reporting segments were profitable (Adj EBITDA)</li>
<li>Revenue growth and margin expansion both accelerated in H225 vs H125</li>
<li>Margin expansion in most segments offset lower China margins in FY25</li>
</ul>


In FY25, for the first time, all of J &amp; T's reporting segments were profitable (Adj EBITDA)
Revenue growth and margin expansion both accelerated in H225 vs H125
Margin expansion in most segments offset lower China margins in FY25


Solid FY25 Results from J & T Global Express | All Lines of Business Profitable

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

<ul><li>J&amp;T’s adjusted after tax profit (excluding fair value change of financial liabilities and share-based expense) surged 112% YoY to US$425mn in 2025, which is 22%/16% above our/Bloomberg consensus.</li><li>This implies adjusted profit of US$272mn in 2H25 (+151% YoY). It is worth noting that New market‘s adjusted EBIT turned positive in 2025.</li><li>The strong results enhanced our confidence in J&amp;T’s global growth story. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

J&amp;T’s adjusted after tax profit (excluding fair value change of financial liabilities and share-based expense) surged 112% YoY to US$425mn in 2025, which is 22%/16% above our/Bloomberg consensus.This implies adjusted profit of US$272mn in 2H25 (+151% YoY). It is worth noting that New market‘s adjusted EBIT turned positive in 2025.The strong results enhanced our confidence in J&amp;T’s global growth story. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

J&T Express (1519 HK) - 2025 earnings beat expectations; Market share further expanded

<ul><li>J&amp;T arranged a conference call during the investor day yesterday (11 Dec) in Bangkok, Thailand, to discuss the operation and outlook of Thailand market.</li><li>After several years of pricing competition to fence off competitors, J&amp;T has achieved profit in Thailand since this year.</li><li>Currently, J&amp;T ranks no. 1 in Thailand, with the parcel volume equal to the total volume of no. 2 to no. 4 players. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

J&amp;T arranged a conference call during the investor day yesterday (11 Dec) in Bangkok, Thailand, to discuss the operation and outlook of Thailand market.After several years of pricing competition to fence off competitors, J&amp;T has achieved profit in Thailand since this year.Currently, J&amp;T ranks no. 1 in Thailand, with the parcel volume equal to the total volume of no. 2 to no. 4 players. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

J&T Express (1519 HK) - Takeaways from Bangkok Investor Call

<ul><li>J&amp;T’s parcel volume growth in 3Q25 reached 23% YoY, driven by outstanding growth of 79% in SEA.</li><li>While the parcel volume growth in China slowed to 10% due to the “anti-involution” campaign, it was alongside a rebound of ASP.</li><li>In view of the strong growth in SEA, we see upside to J&amp;T’s full-year parcel volume growth guidance (+56% in SEA). We continue to like J&amp;T, due to (1) the unmatched competitive edge and market share gain potential in SEA (32.8% in 1H25), and (2) strong potential in New markets such as Brazil and the Middle East. We have left our SOTP-based TP unchanged at HK$13.4. Reiterate BUY.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

J&amp;T’s parcel volume growth in 3Q25 reached 23% YoY, driven by outstanding growth of 79% in SEA.While the parcel volume growth in China slowed to 10% due to the “anti-involution” campaign, it was alongside a rebound of ASP.In view of the strong growth in SEA, we see upside to J&amp;T’s full-year parcel volume growth guidance (+56% in SEA). We continue to like J&amp;T, due to (1) the unmatched competitive edge and market share gain potential in SEA (32.8% in 1H25), and (2) strong potential in New markets such as Brazil and the Middle East. We have left our SOTP-based TP unchanged at HK$13.4. Reiterate BUY.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

J&T Express (1519 HK) - Parcel Growth in SEA Further Accelerated in 3Q25

China

J&T Global Express is an investment holding company primarily engaged in providing integrated express delivery and global logistics services. The company offers parcel sorting, line-haul transportation, dispatching, cross-border services, and cash-on-delivery. It was founded in 2015 and is headquartered in Shanghai, China.

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J&T Global Express (1519 HK)

J&T Global Express Q126 Parcel Volumes | Strong Growth, but Only Outside of China

J & T Global Express reported Q126 parcel volumes that showed strong growth in SE Asia and developing markets outside of East Asia, but modest...

Tracking Traffic

Solid FY25 Results from J & T Global Express | All Lines of Business Profitable

J & T Global Express reported a solid set of FY25 results earlier this week. We admit we were surprised to see New Markets and X-Border both turn...

Tracking Traffic

J&T Express (1519 HK) - Takeaways from Bangkok Investor Call

J&T arranged a conference call during the investor day yesterday (11 Dec) in Bangkok, Thailand, to discuss the operation and outlook of Thailand...

CMB International

J&T Express (1519 HK) - Parcel Growth in SEA Further Accelerated in 3Q25

While the parcel volume growth in China slowed to 10% due to the “anti-involution” campaign, it was alongside a rebound of ASP.

CMB International

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