Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Capital Markets

Cainiao Smart Logistics Network / Equity Capital Markets

Cainiao Smart Logistics Network (1437124D HK)

<ul>
<li>Acquiring parent Alibaba's express investments could soak up much of CaiNiao's IPO proceeds</li>
<li>Such transfers would help Alibaba, but the potential benefit to CaiNiao is less clear</li>
<li>The transfers of these stakes could become an important aspect of CaiNiao's IPO process</li>
</ul>


Acquiring parent Alibaba's express investments could soak up much of CaiNiao's IPO proceeds
Such transfers would help Alibaba, but the potential benefit to CaiNiao is less clear
The transfers of these stakes could become an important aspect of CaiNiao's IPO process


CaiNiao Smart Logistics Pre-IPO Part 4 | Acquiring BABA's Express Stakes Could Soak Up IPO Proceeds

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Clarence Chu

APAC IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wuxi-xdc-cayman-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:39917:1" rel="noopener">WuXi XDC Cayman (1877628D HK)</a> is looking to raise around US$500m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.</li>
<li>WuXi XDC Cayman (WXDC) is a CRDMO focused on the global antibody drug conjugates (ADC) and broader bioconjugate market providing integrated and end-to-end services.</li>
<li>In this note, we share our updated thoughts on valuation and look at bull/bear scenarios for WXDC’s earnings.</li>
</ul>



WuXi XDC Cayman (1877628D HK) is looking to raise around US$500m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
WuXi XDC Cayman (WXDC) is a CRDMO focused on the global antibody drug conjugates (ADC) and broader bioconjugate market providing integrated and end-to-end services.
In this note, we share our updated thoughts on valuation and look at bull/bear scenarios for WXDC’s earnings.


WuXi XDC Cayman Pre-IPO - BULL/BEAR Scenario Considerations for Valuations

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Given declining prices and slowing volume growth, we anticipated lower Q3 express margins</li>
<li>The four China-listed express firms saw Op Inc margin fall from 5.3% in Q2 to 3.9% in Q3</li>
<li>SF fared better than 'sort &amp; transport' names, but its freight forwarding segment still a drag</li>
</ul>


Given declining prices and slowing volume growth, we anticipated lower Q3 express margins
The four China-listed express firms saw Op Inc margin fall from 5.3% in Q2 to 3.9% in Q3
SF fared better than 'sort &amp; transport' names, but its freight forwarding segment still a drag


The Four Listed Chinese Express Companies Suffered Significant Margin Erosion in Q323

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wuxi-xdc-cayman-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:39917:1" rel="noopener">WuXi XDC Cayman Inc (1877628D HK)</a> is looking to raise around US$500m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.</li>
<li>WuXi XDC Cayman (WXDC) is a CRDMO focused on the global antibody drug conjugates (ADC) and broader bioconjugate market providing integrated and end-to-end services.</li>
<li>In our previous notes we looked at the company’s past performance, peer comparison, and shared our thoughts on valuations. In this note, we discuss WXDC’s PHIP updates.</li>
</ul>



WuXi XDC Cayman Inc (1877628D HK) is looking to raise around US$500m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
WuXi XDC Cayman (WXDC) is a CRDMO focused on the global antibody drug conjugates (ADC) and broader bioconjugate market providing integrated and end-to-end services.
In our previous notes we looked at the company’s past performance, peer comparison, and shared our thoughts on valuations. In this note, we discuss WXDC’s PHIP updates.


WuXi XDC Cayman Pre-IPO - PHIP Updates - Margins Remain Depressed Although Growth Still Strong

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cainiao-smart-logistics-network-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36859:1" rel="noopener">Cainiao Smart Logistics (1437124D HK)</a>, a global leader in e-commerce logistics, has filed for a HKEx IPO to raise at least US$1 billion at a US$15-20 billion valuation.</li>
<li>In <em><strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/cainiao-smart-logistics-ipo-the-bull-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:115312" rel="noopener">Cainiao Smart Logistics IPO: The Bull Case</a></strong></em>, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.</li>
<li>The bear case rests on declining global cross-border market share, China logistics decelerating growth, high related-party transactions, and FCF burn. </li>
</ul>



Cainiao Smart Logistics (1437124D HK), a global leader in e-commerce logistics, has filed for a HKEx IPO to raise at least US$1 billion at a US$15-20 billion valuation.
In Cainiao Smart Logistics IPO: The Bull Case, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.
The bear case rests on declining global cross-border market share, China logistics decelerating growth, high related-party transactions, and FCF burn. 


Cainiao Smart Logistics IPO: The Bear Case

China

J&T Global Express is an investment holding company primarily engaged in providing integrated express delivery and global logistics services. The company offers parcel sorting, line-haul transportation, dispatching, cross-border services, and cash-on-delivery. It was founded in 2015 and is headquartered in Shanghai, China.

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J&T Global Express (1519 HK)

CaiNiao Smart Logistics Pre-IPO Part 4 | Acquiring BABA's Express Stakes Could Soak Up IPO Proceeds

The transfer of Alibaba's logistics investments to CaiNiao could require billions of dollars of new funds in the short- to medium-term, potentially...

Tracking Traffic

WuXi XDC Cayman Pre-IPO - BULL/BEAR Scenario Considerations for Valuations

WuXi XDC Cayman (1877628D HK) is looking to raise around US$500m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. In this note, we share our updated thoughts on...

Clarence Chu

The Four Listed Chinese Express Companies Suffered Significant Margin Erosion in Q323

A new price war among China's 'sort and transport' express companies drove down the group's core margins in Q3, and we expect the pain to continue...

Tracking Traffic

WuXi XDC Cayman Pre-IPO - PHIP Updates - Margins Remain Depressed Although Growth Still Strong

WuXi XDC Cayman Inc (1877628D HK) is looking to raise around US$500m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. In this note, we discuss WXDC’s PHIP updates.

Clarence Chu

Cainiao Smart Logistics IPO: The Bear Case

The bear case rests on declining global cross-border market share, China logistics decelerating growth, high related-party transactions, and FCF burn.

Arun George

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