'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

ja research

ja research is an independent research platform focused exclusively on Japanese equities. Leveraging data and graphic analysis provided by Japan Analytics, we provide insights on small and medium-sized companies that have been ignored by the sell-side as well as challenging conventional wisdom on larger companies. We also offer analyst and corporate access, the latter with translation if required. 

Quantitative Analysis

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/077/686/original/2019-02-02_09-34-42.png?1549067763" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="77686"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div><div style="text-align: left;" class="content-caption">
Note: The Results &amp; Revision Score is the average of our Results Score and Forecasts/Revision Score and is updated daily for each company and then cap-weighted-aggregated into Peer Groups, Sectors and the Market Composite. Both scores have a maximum of +30 and a minimum of -30 for each period. The Results Score is calculated quarterly, using the most recent eight quarters of company data for revenues, operating income and operating margin and measures the rate, degree and consistency of change for each metric. The Forecast/Revision Score is based on Annual and Interim period company forecasts and compares changes from previous forecasts as well as against the trailing twelve-month or previous first-half results, with annual forecasts being double-weighted.</div>DRIP, DRIP, DRIP - We 'lead' this fortnight's update with our All-Market Composite Results &amp; Revision Score. Calculated daily, the score is a 'real-time' measure of the state of, and the outlook for, listed Japanese corporations. As the scoring methodology includes earnings momentum 'factors', the data series can be a useful leading indicator of forward earnings. The correlation with the market over the last four years is 0.578, with the indicator leading more often than lagging.   Since peaking on 16th November 2017, the Results &amp; Revisions Score has fallen by 62% and has now returned to the level of May 2017. In the last ten years, the score has only been lower than at present one-third of the time - mostly during the fiscal year ended March 2017 when the total market value averaged ¥550t, close to the December 2018 low. If we are to repeat the relatively-mild cyclical downturn of 2016, the Results &amp; Revision Score will turn negative in May of this year, and the 25th December 2018 low will be retested.<div class="content-caption">
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/077/701/original/2019-02-02_14-11-25.png?1549084295" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="77701"></figure>Source: Japan Analytics
</div>PAST THE PEAK - Our earnings indicator peaked 14 months ago, two months ahead of the market's high point on 26th January 2018. It now appears that aggregate reported earnings, as well as aggregate company forecasts for the current year, are now turning decisively lower after nine quarters of uninterrupted growth. Forecast Net Income for the current year is now 7% below the high point in trailing-twelve-month (TTM) Net Income from this cycle, which was reached two months ago. Operating Income is, as usual, 'lagging' and forecasts are still marginally ahead of TTM. The TTM all-market price-earnings ratio reached 11.5 times on Christmas Day, which will prove to be the cycle low point. We expect the return to median levels, to be achieved more through lower 'E' as opposed to a higher 'P'.  Mr Market is currently implying that Japanese corporate profits are due to fall by 23% on average from the cycle peak, or by 30% if we are to revisit the December low-point. <figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/077/746/original/2019-02-03_07-23-31.png?1549146223" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="77746"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div>THE FIRST CUT - 23% of listed companies reported their most recent quarterly earnings results in the last two weeks. For these companies, TTM revenues grew by 5.1% year-on-year, but only by 0.5% quarter-on-quarter, the lowest qoq growth rate in over a year. TTM Operating Income is now 0.8% lower than the TTM total of one year ago and declined by 4.4% qoq. Operating margins fell by 49bps year-on-year.  Current forecasts for this group of companies imply 3.1% yoy top line growth, but only 0.3% compared to the quarter just declared. For Operating Income, the rates are -2.0% and 0.6%, reflecting the normal TTM-to-forecast 'lag'. Corporate Japan's profits are now rolling over and will be in a 'recession' by the fiscal year-end.  <figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/077/722/original/2019-02-02_18-25-46.png?1549099572" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="77722"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div>INTERREGNUM - Our bear market rally has paused to look at and digest the earnings-announcement news flow and will likely be trendless for the next few weeks as 'good' reactions offset 'bad'. In due course, we expect the preponderance of negative momentum to tip the scales.<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/077/724/original/2019-02-02_18-41-12.png?1549100508" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="77724"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div>TORAKU @110 - The Toraku advance-decline indicator has continued to recover and is within ten points of the overbought zone, which has only been breached once since the market peak of January 2018. This signal is 'amber' and could be 'red' by the end of next week. <div class="content-highlight">
OUTLOOK &amp; RECOMMENDATIONS
<ul>
<li>We continue to recommend an underweight position in Japan in global portfolios.</li>
<li>The equity market decline at the end of last year was well in advance of the underlying trends in the economy and corporate profits; the recent 10% rally has corrected that imbalance. Nevertheless, the global cycle has turned down sharply, and many economies will be in a recession by the end of this quarter. We expect Japanese corporate earnings to follow suit.  </li>
<li>Although some of the coming decline in aggregate earnings has been well-discounted, our Results &amp; Revision Score has yet to turn negative. Accordingly, we expect the market to retest the December 2018 low, probably in May when the FY2020 forecasts are announced and our score starts 'seeing red'.</li>
<li>In the near term and despite the rally in the more cyclical sectors, we continue to favour undervalued domestically-orientated companies in the Information Technology, Internet, Media, and Telecommunications sectors. We would avoid or short Banks and Non-Bank Finance.</li>
</ul>
</div>In the DETAIL section below, we will review Sector performance over the last two weeks, and, in addition to our regular roundup of results, revisions and stock performance including brief comments on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/3700" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3700:1">Anritsu (6754 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/12001" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12001:1">Alps Alpine (6770 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/24540" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24540:1">SanBio (4592 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/454" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:454:1">Lixil (5938 JP)</a> (yes, again), <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/752" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:752:1">Fanuc (6954 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/219" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:219:1">Mizuho Financial Group (8411 JP)</a> , and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/8197" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8197:1">Cyberagent (4751 JP)</a>.

Source: Japan Analytics
Note: The Results &amp; Revision Score is the average of our Results Score and Forecasts/Revision Score and is updated daily for each company and then cap-weighted-aggregated into Peer Groups, Sectors and the Market Composite. Both scores have a maximum of +30 and a minimum of -30 for each period. The Results Score is calculated quarterly, using the most recent eight quarters of company data for revenues, operating income and operating margin and measures the rate, degree and consistency of change for each metric. The Forecast/Revision Score is based on Annual and Interim period company forecasts and compares changes from previous forecasts as well as against the trailing twelve-month or previous first-half results, with annual forecasts being double-weighted.DRIP, DRIP, DRIP - We 'lead' this fortnight's update with our All-Market Composite Results &amp; Revision Score. Calculated daily, the score is a 'real-time' measure of the state of, and the outlook for, listed Japanese corporations. As the scoring methodology includes earnings momentum 'factors', the data series can be a useful leading indicator of forward earnings. The correlation with the market over the last four years is 0.578, with the indicator leading more often than lagging.   Since peaking on 16th November 2017, the Results &amp; Revisions Score has fallen by 62% and has now returned to the level of May 2017. In the last ten years, the score has only been lower than at present one-third of the time - mostly during the fiscal year ended March 2017 when the total market value averaged ¥550t, close to the December 2018 low. If we are to repeat the relatively-mild cyclical downturn of 2016, the Results &amp; Revision Score will turn negative in May of this year, and the 25th December 2018 low will be retested.
Source: Japan Analytics
PAST THE PEAK - Our earnings indicator peaked 14 months ago, two months ahead of the market's high point on 26th January 2018. It now appears that aggregate reported earnings, as well as aggregate company forecasts for the current year, are now turning decisively lower after nine quarters of uninterrupted growth. Forecast Net Income for the current year is now 7% below the high point in trailing-twelve-month (TTM) Net Income from this cycle, which was reached two months ago. Operating Income is, as usual, 'lagging' and forecasts are still marginally ahead of TTM. The TTM all-market price-earnings ratio reached 11.5 times on Christmas Day, which will prove to be the cycle low point. We expect the return to median levels, to be achieved more through lower 'E' as opposed to a higher 'P'.  Mr Market is currently implying that Japanese corporate profits are due to fall by 23% on average from the cycle peak, or by 30% if we are to revisit the December low-point. Source: Japan AnalyticsTHE FIRST CUT - 23% of listed companies reported their most recent quarterly earnings results in the last two weeks. For these companies, TTM revenues grew by 5.1% year-on-year, but only by 0.5% quarter-on-quarter, the lowest qoq growth rate in over a year. TTM Operating Income is now 0.8% lower than the TTM total of one year ago and declined by 4.4% qoq. Operating margins fell by 49bps year-on-year.  Current forecasts for this group of companies imply 3.1% yoy top line growth, but only 0.3% compared to the quarter just declared. For Operating Income, the rates are -2.0% and 0.6%, reflecting the normal TTM-to-forecast 'lag'. Corporate Japan's profits are now rolling over and will be in a 'recession' by the fiscal year-end.  Source: Japan AnalyticsINTERREGNUM - Our bear market rally has paused to look at and digest the earnings-announcement news flow and will likely be trendless for the next few weeks as 'good' reactions offset 'bad'. In due course, we expect the preponderance of negative momentum to tip the scales.Source: Japan AnalyticsTORAKU @110 - The Toraku advance-decline indicator has continued to recover and is within ten points of the overbought zone, which has only been breached once since the market peak of January 2018. This signal is 'amber' and could be 'red' by the end of next week. 
OUTLOOK &amp; RECOMMENDATIONS

We continue to recommend an underweight position in Japan in global portfolios.
The equity market decline at the end of last year was well in advance of the underlying trends in the economy and corporate profits; the recent 10% rally has corrected that imbalance. Nevertheless, the global cycle has turned down sharply, and many economies will be in a recession by the end of this quarter. We expect Japanese corporate earnings to follow suit.  
Although some of the coming decline in aggregate earnings has been well-discounted, our Results &amp; Revision Score has yet to turn negative. Accordingly, we expect the market to retest the December 2018 low, probably in May when the FY2020 forecasts are announced and our score starts 'seeing red'.
In the near term and despite the rally in the more cyclical sectors, we continue to favour undervalued domestically-orientated companies in the Information Technology, Internet, Media, and Telecommunications sectors. We would avoid or short Banks and Non-Bank Finance.

In the DETAIL section below, we will review Sector performance over the last two weeks, and, in addition to our regular roundup of results, revisions and stock performance including brief comments on Anritsu (6754 JP), Alps Alpine (6770 JP), SanBio (4592 JP), Lixil (5938 JP) (yes, again), Fanuc (6954 JP), Mizuho Financial Group (8411 JP) , and Cyberagent (4751 JP).

Japan Fortnightly Update: Drip, Drip, Drip...

<div class="content-caption">
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/076/722/original/2019-01-26_16-21-53.png?1548487323" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="76722"></figure>

Source: Japan Analytics
</div>
CONSISTENCY PAYS - In troubled markets, investors often seek out companies with greater earnings stability and a history of consistent stock outperformance. Conversely, companies that offer investors more of a rollercoaster ride (<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/6232" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6232:1">Chiyoda Corp (6366 JP)</a> being an excellent recent example) are less rewarding, especially when adjusted for volatility. In an attempt to sort the 'Steady Eddies' from the Rollercoaster Rides', we have created a Consistency Score - a composite based on our Results Score, Forecast/Revision Score, Relative Price Score and Volume Score - which measures the variability, consistency, correlation, and range of each of these scores for every company.  Cap-weighted aggregate Consistency Scores are then derived for 321 Peer Groups and 29 Sectors - REITs are excluded from this analysis. Over 3 million data points have been reviewed in creating this analysis. As the old slogan goes - "we do the work, so you don't have to'.
'CARP = CONSISTENCY-AT-A-REASONABLE-PRICE' - Our findings will not surprise long-term investors in Japanese equities; the simple asset allocation decision to prefer domestic growth over global value has determined the quartile-ranking of many strategies in recent years. Although many of these Sectors, Peer Groups and stocks are now overvalued, we do not expect the underlying business dynamics to change in the years ahead and many excellent investment opportunities remain, especially down the cap-scale. Periodic and often substantial mean reversions in the more cyclical sectors, such as the one that has occurred in the last two days, will offer attractive trading opportunities for more-nimble portfolio managers. Longer-term orientated investors are better-advised to continue to favour 'consistency-at-a-reasonable-price'.  Some of our 'findings', as explained in more DETAIL below, are as follows: - 
<ul class="">
<li>
SECTORS - The better investors in Japan over the last two decades have eschewed traditional manufacturing in favour of Services, IT/Internet, Retail, Restaurants and 'FB&amp;T'. Only Machinery and Electrical Equipment outperformed the market's 4% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) over the period.</li>
<li>
PEER GROUPS- The most-consistent Peer Groups are found in industries associated with food, drugs, welfare, shelter and amusement. Only five of the top-forty Peer Groups - Online Payment Services, E-Commerce, IT System Services, Telecom Distribution Services and Internet Software &amp; Services belong to the 'new age'. There are no manufacturing Peer Groups in the top-forty. The best performing Peer Group is Securities Services, and the worst-performing is Investment Management &amp; Advice. Although both have similar levels of consistency, the stock exchange has beaten its fund managers by 28% annually since 2005.</li>
<li>
COMPANIES - The simple average fourteen-year compound annual share price appreciation for all listed large-cap companies is +5.1%. For all listed companies the average falls to just +0.5%, highlighting the perils of investing in Japan's small caps. The average share price CAGR for our hindsight-selected top-forty is +18.7%. In contrast, only one of our forty least-consistent companies outperformed the market and the average for the least-consistent forty companies was a negative -3.2%.   Unsurprisingly, there are eight banks and six steel companies on the list, along with two glass companies and two shipping lines.</li>
<li>
CONSISTENCY HALL OF FAME/SHAME AWARDS - We have selected one company from each of the most and least consistent lists as the winner of a 'Consistency Award'. Both are highlighted in the chart above. One of them will be as surprising to many readers as it was to us.  </li>
</ul>




Source: Japan Analytics

CONSISTENCY PAYS - In troubled markets, investors often seek out companies with greater earnings stability and a history of consistent stock outperformance. Conversely, companies that offer investors more of a rollercoaster ride (Chiyoda Corp (6366 JP) being an excellent recent example) are less rewarding, especially when adjusted for volatility. In an attempt to sort the 'Steady Eddies' from the Rollercoaster Rides', we have created a Consistency Score - a composite based on our Results Score, Forecast/Revision Score, Relative Price Score and Volume Score - which measures the variability, consistency, correlation, and range of each of these scores for every company.  Cap-weighted aggregate Consistency Scores are then derived for 321 Peer Groups and 29 Sectors - REITs are excluded from this analysis. Over 3 million data points have been reviewed in creating this analysis. As the old slogan goes - "we do the work, so you don't have to'.
'CARP = CONSISTENCY-AT-A-REASONABLE-PRICE' - Our findings will not surprise long-term investors in Japanese equities; the simple asset allocation decision to prefer domestic growth over global value has determined the quartile-ranking of many strategies in recent years. Although many of these Sectors, Peer Groups and stocks are now overvalued, we do not expect the underlying business dynamics to change in the years ahead and many excellent investment opportunities remain, especially down the cap-scale. Periodic and often substantial mean reversions in the more cyclical sectors, such as the one that has occurred in the last two days, will offer attractive trading opportunities for more-nimble portfolio managers. Longer-term orientated investors are better-advised to continue to favour 'consistency-at-a-reasonable-price'.  Some of our 'findings', as explained in more DETAIL below, are as follows: - 


SECTORS - The better investors in Japan over the last two decades have eschewed traditional manufacturing in favour of Services, IT/Internet, Retail, Restaurants and 'FB&amp;T'. Only Machinery and Electrical Equipment outperformed the market's 4% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) over the period.

PEER GROUPS- The most-consistent Peer Groups are found in industries associated with food, drugs, welfare, shelter and amusement. Only five of the top-forty Peer Groups - Online Payment Services, E-Commerce, IT System Services, Telecom Distribution Services and Internet Software &amp; Services belong to the 'new age'. There are no manufacturing Peer Groups in the top-forty. The best performing Peer Group is Securities Services, and the worst-performing is Investment Management &amp; Advice. Although both have similar levels of consistency, the stock exchange has beaten its fund managers by 28% annually since 2005.

COMPANIES - The simple average fourteen-year compound annual share price appreciation for all listed large-cap companies is +5.1%. For all listed companies the average falls to just +0.5%, highlighting the perils of investing in Japan's small caps. The average share price CAGR for our hindsight-selected top-forty is +18.7%. In contrast, only one of our forty least-consistent companies outperformed the market and the average for the least-consistent forty companies was a negative -3.2%.   Unsurprisingly, there are eight banks and six steel companies on the list, along with two glass companies and two shipping lines.

CONSISTENCY HALL OF FAME/SHAME AWARDS - We have selected one company from each of the most and least consistent lists as the winner of a 'Consistency Award'. Both are highlighted in the chart above. One of them will be as surprising to many readers as it was to us.  


Japan: Consistency Scores - Steady Eddies V. Rollercoaster Rides

Director, Pearl Hill Advisors

Nicholas Tanner

Director

Pearl Hill Advisors

Equity Bottom-Up

JAFCO is a venture capital fund management company with some Y111.3bn invested in some 260 unlisted equities globally. Of this Y54.1bn is in Japan, Y33.4bn is in the US and Y23.8bn is in Asia. Overall its investments have a technology bias with electronics, software and IT services accounting for just under 80% of this. Its funds also have just over Y6bn invested in listed investments (i.e. those yet to be sold). Thus its total fund investment balance is just under Y120bn.  Of this, Y62bn is its…

JAFCO is a venture capital fund management company with some Y111.3bn invested in some 260 unlisted equities globally. Of this Y54.1bn is in Japan, Y33.4bn is in the US and Y23.8bn is in Asia. Overall its investments have a technology bias with electronics, software and IT services accounting for just under 80% of this. Its funds also have just over Y6bn invested in listed investments (i.e. those yet to be sold). Thus its total fund investment balance is just under Y120bn.  Of this, Y62bn is its…

JAFCO (8595) The Shares Have Massively Underperformed YTD and Are Cheap. BUY Here.

Japan

JAFCO Co., Ltd. forms venture capital groups to invest primarily in domestic and foreign private companies with high potential for future growth.  The Company also provides management services to the groups, makes loans and offers consultation services to the invested companies.

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Jafco Co Ltd (8595 JP)

Japan Fortnightly Update: Drip, Drip, Drip...

DRIP, DRIP, DRIP - We 'lead' this fortnight's update with our All-Market Composite Results & Revision Score. Calculated daily, the score is a...

Campbell Gunn

Japan: Consistency Scores - Steady Eddies V. Rollercoaster Rides

CONSISTENCY PAYS - In troubled markets, investors often seek out companies with greater earnings stability and a history of consistent stock...

Campbell Gunn

JAFCO (8595) The Shares Have Massively Underperformed YTD and Are Cheap. BUY Here.

JAFCO is a venture capital fund management company with some Y111.3bn invested in some 260 unlisted equities globally. Of this Y54.1bn is in Japan,...

Pearl Hill Advisors

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