Chief Executive Officer, Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Chief Executive Officer

Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Emmer Capital Partners is an Asia Pacific focused financial advisory firm engaging in strategic financial asset allocation advice, bespoke thematic research and advising early-stage companies and connecting them to investors. Emmer Capital provides macro-economic and multi-asset investment strategy inputs to institutions, family offices, private wealth managers, private equity, and corporate boards directly and through independent research platforms. Emmer Capital also advises a wide range of startup companies on fund raising and business strategy. Emmer Capital's active engagement with the print and electronic media reaches a broad spectrum of investors across the globe.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Asia is cheap relative to the US - trading at less than 40% of US's P/BV - but that's because Asia's ROE has consistently declined relative to US's.</li>
<li>Over the next couple of years Asian ROEs are forecast to revive relative to the US's but all Asian markets are not forecast to participate in this recovery.</li>
<li>The "ROE Winners" (rising forecast ROEs) are Korea, Taiwan, India, Malaysia. Indonesia to stay flat but solidly higher than Asian average. We are skeptical of HK/China and Thailand's ROE recovery.</li>
</ul>


Asia is cheap relative to the US - trading at less than 40% of US's P/BV - but that's because Asia's ROE has consistently declined relative to US's.
Over the next couple of years Asian ROEs are forecast to revive relative to the US's but all Asian markets are not forecast to participate in this recovery.
The "ROE Winners" (rising forecast ROEs) are Korea, Taiwan, India, Malaysia. Indonesia to stay flat but solidly higher than Asian average. We are skeptical of HK/China and Thailand's ROE recovery.


Asian Equities: Be Selective - Focus on The "ROE Winners"

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), MNC Sekuritas

MNC Sekuritas

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

MNC Sekuritas, the first wholly-owned subsidiary established by the Group back in 1989, provides a complete range of services, from equity, fixed income, investment banking to providing research to optimize clients’ investments. Thus far, the company has more than 140 points of sales with over 100,000 clients. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Telco’s: Data Traffic and ARPU Trends Indonesia's economic growth is driven by investments in digital infrastructure, aiming for 79.5% penetration by 2024 and a USD1 trillion digital economy by 2030, aligning with the Golden Indonesia 2045 vision.</li><li>Meanwhile, competition among telco operators remains fierce. TLKM leads in data traffic and ARPU but faced an ARPU decline in Q3 2024, nearing 2021 levels, due to seasonal factors and a shift toward affordable packages like Telkomsel Lite, which increased data traffic.</li><li>XL and IOH demonstrated growth in both ARPU and data traffic, bolstered by successful price adjustments and confidence in user growth. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Telco’s: Data Traffic and ARPU Trends Indonesia's economic growth is driven by investments in digital infrastructure, aiming for 79.5% penetration by 2024 and a USD1 trillion digital economy by 2030, aligning with the Golden Indonesia 2045 vision.Meanwhile, competition among telco operators remains fierce. TLKM leads in data traffic and ARPU but faced an ARPU decline in Q3 2024, nearing 2021 levels, due to seasonal factors and a shift toward affordable packages like Telkomsel Lite, which increased data traffic.XL and IOH demonstrated growth in both ARPU and data traffic, bolstered by successful price adjustments and confidence in user growth. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Telco & Tower Sectoral Update November 25, 2024

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), BRI Danareksa Research

BRI Danareksa Research

As a one-stop financial solution with the vision to be the most valuable securities house, BRI Danareksa Sekuritas (BRIDS) has maintained an excellent track record and extensive experience in the capital market as an underwriter, broker, and financial advisor for individual, institutional, foreign and domestic, private and government clients. Established in 1992, PT Danareksa Sekuritas is a securities company that performs activities as a securities broker, underwriter, or arranger and financial advisor.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>As domestically focused sectors underperformed, we cut our FY24/25 EPS growth est. to 2.4%/9.3% and JCI FY24-end target to 7,448.</li><li>Despite still muted growth indicators, we expect seasonal tailwinds to benefit certain sectors (e.g., Retail, Consumer) in 4Q24. </li><li>At a forward P/E of 11.9x, JCI valuation is attractive (160bps spread vs. 10-yr yield); amid macro risks, we favor quality stocks and USD hedge.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

As domestically focused sectors underperformed, we cut our FY24/25 EPS growth est. to 2.4%/9.3% and JCI FY24-end target to 7,448.Despite still muted growth indicators, we expect seasonal tailwinds to benefit certain sectors (e.g., Retail, Consumer) in 4Q24. At a forward P/E of 11.9x, JCI valuation is attractive (160bps spread vs. 10-yr yield); amid macro risks, we favor quality stocks and USD hedge.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Equity Strategy: Attractive Valuation Emerging, Prefer Quality Stocks and USD Hedge...

<ul>
<li>A key medium-term driver of share price is earnings estimate trajectory - in particular, "earnings inflections" - i.e. the trajectory of earnings estimates changing directions. </li>
<li>Different Asian markets have had different estimate trajectories. But most suffered estimate cuts since August/September 2024, coinciding with the US Dollar appreciation and the spike in US yields.</li>
<li>We argue that investors need to watch out for Taiwan, Indonesia, Malaysia and India for earnings estimate increases. India's could decline in the near term and commence an uptrend later. </li>
</ul>


A key medium-term driver of share price is earnings estimate trajectory - in particular, "earnings inflections" - i.e. the trajectory of earnings estimates changing directions. 
Different Asian markets have had different estimate trajectories. But most suffered estimate cuts since August/September 2024, coinciding with the US Dollar appreciation and the spike in US yields.
We argue that investors need to watch out for Taiwan, Indonesia, Malaysia and India for earnings estimate increases. India's could decline in the near term and commence an uptrend later. 


Asian Equities: In Search of Earnings Estimate Uptrends

<ul><li>The healthcare budget is set to IDR197.8 trillion, grew by 6.1% YoY</li><li>The government has issued a free healthcare program for 55 million citizens starting in FY25F, with a budget allocation of IDR5 trillion from the APBN 2025, of which IDR3.3 trillion will be utilized for health screenings and IDR1.7 trillion for healthcare facilities across Indonesia.</li><li>The government has identified three healthcare priorities: 1) Free health screenings for all age groups; 2) Reduction of TBC cases; and 3) The construction of high-quality and fullyequipped hospitals in remote and underdeveloped areas. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The healthcare budget is set to IDR197.8 trillion, grew by 6.1% YoYThe government has issued a free healthcare program for 55 million citizens starting in FY25F, with a budget allocation of IDR5 trillion from the APBN 2025, of which IDR3.3 trillion will be utilized for health screenings and IDR1.7 trillion for healthcare facilities across Indonesia.The government has identified three healthcare priorities: 1) Free health screenings for all age groups; 2) Reduction of TBC cases; and 3) The construction of high-quality and fullyequipped hospitals in remote and underdeveloped areas. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Healthcare Sectoral Update November 18, 2024

Indonesia

The Jakarta Stock Price Index is a modified capitalization-weighted index of all stocks listed on the regular board of the Indonesia Stock Exchange. The index was developed with a base index value of 100 as of August 10, 1982. Please look at CDR JA<GO> for exchange trading days.

Jakarta Stock Exchange Composite Index (JCI INDEX)

Jakarta Stock Exchange Composite Index (JCI INDEX)

Asian Equities: Be Selective - Focus on The "ROE Winners"

Asia's cheap P/BV compared to the US is due to low ROE. Over the next couple of years Asian ROE is forecast to revive relative to US, driven by...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Telco & Tower Sectoral Update November 25, 2024

Data Traffic and ARPU Trends Indonesia's economic growth is driven by investments in digital infrastructure, aiming for 79.5% penetration by 2024...

MNC Sekuritas

Equity Strategy: Attractive Valuation Emerging, Prefer Quality Stocks and USD Hedge...

At a forward P/E of 11.9x, JCI valuation is attractive (160bps spread vs. 10-yr yield); amid macro risks, we favor quality stocks and USD hedge.

BRI Danareksa Research

Asian Equities: In Search of Earnings Estimate Uptrends

Earnings estimate trajectory, especially "earnings inflection," are key drivers of share price in Asian markets. We see potential uptrends in...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Healthcare Sectoral Update November 18, 2024

The government has issued a free healthcare program for 55 million citizens starting in FY25F, with a budget allocation of IDR5 trillion from the...

MNC Sekuritas

Asian Equities: Be Selective - Focus on The "ROE Winners"

​Asia's cheap P/BV compared to the US is due to low ROE. Over the next couple of years Asian ROE is forecast to revive relative to US, driven by...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Telco & Tower Sectoral Update November 25, 2024

Data Traffic and ARPU Trends Indonesia's economic growth is driven by investments in digital infrastructure, aiming for 79.5% penetration by 2024...

MNC Sekuritas

Equity Strategy: Attractive Valuation Emerging, Prefer Quality Stocks and USD Hedge...

At a forward P/E of 11.9x, JCI valuation is attractive (160bps spread vs. 10-yr yield); amid macro risks, we favor quality stocks and USD hedge.

BRI Danareksa Research

Asian Equities: In Search of Earnings Estimate Uptrends

​Earnings estimate trajectory, especially "earnings inflection," are key drivers of share price in Asian markets. We see potential uptrends in...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Healthcare Sectoral Update November 18, 2024

The government has issued a free healthcare program for 55 million citizens starting in FY25F, with a budget allocation of IDR5 trillion from the...

MNC Sekuritas

Asia's cheap P/BV compared to the US is due to low ROE. Over the next couple of years Asian ROE is forecast to revive relative to US, driven by...

Earnings estimate trajectory, especially "earnings inflection," are key drivers of share price in Asian markets. We see potential uptrends in...