External broker reports(aggregated public sources), BRI Danareksa Research

BRI Danareksa Research

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

As a one-stop financial solution with the vision to be the most valuable securities house, BRI Danareksa Sekuritas (BRIDS) has maintained an excellent track record and extensive experience in the capital market as an underwriter, broker, and financial advisor for individual, institutional, foreign and domestic, private and government clients. Established in 1992, PT Danareksa Sekuritas is a securities company that performs activities as a securities broker, underwriter, or arranger and financial advisor.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>The period of policy rate cut was historically positive for JCI, which delivered 21% return during FY16-18 125bps rate cut.</li><li>Banks and the perceived interest-rate sensitive sectors were clear winners during the past rate cut period.</li><li>Despite limited scope for further cuts, we see BI’s move as positive to support growth; we retain our FY25-end JCI target of 7,850.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The period of policy rate cut was historically positive for JCI, which delivered 21% return during FY16-18 125bps rate cut.Banks and the perceived interest-rate sensitive sectors were clear winners during the past rate cut period.Despite limited scope for further cuts, we see BI’s move as positive to support growth; we retain our FY25-end JCI target of 7,850.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Equity Strategy: Potential Winners from BI’s Surprise Rate Cut

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Despite external headwinds on Rupiah and liquidity, we believe JCI valuation has currently priced in a soft growth outlook for FY25.</li><li>Amid resilient economic growth outlook, we forecast FY25 EPS growth of 6.5%, which also transpires into improving market ROE to 19.6%.</li><li>We foresee JCI target of 7,850 based on 13x PE; our preferred picks are defensive sectors (i.e, Consumers, Telco) and Rupiah hedge (UNTR).</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Despite external headwinds on Rupiah and liquidity, we believe JCI valuation has currently priced in a soft growth outlook for FY25.Amid resilient economic growth outlook, we forecast FY25 EPS growth of 6.5%, which also transpires into improving market ROE to 19.6%.We foresee JCI target of 7,850 based on 13x PE; our preferred picks are defensive sectors (i.e, Consumers, Telco) and Rupiah hedge (UNTR).Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FY25 Outlook: Attractive Valuation Emerges as Headwind and Soft Growth Outlook Are Priced In

<ul><li>JCI rose 3.8% wow, partly driven by foreign funds inflows particularly into INDF, ASII BREN, UNTR, and GOTO, which more than offset the persisting outflows from the big banks (i.e., BBRI, BBNI and to a lesser extent BBCA and BMRI).</li><li>These resulted in net inflow of US$67mn.</li><li>Within EM, India saw a big inflow of US$3bn during the week, while ASEAN EM peers still faced outflows albeit easing from prior weeks. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

JCI rose 3.8% wow, partly driven by foreign funds inflows particularly into INDF, ASII BREN, UNTR, and GOTO, which more than offset the persisting outflows from the big banks (i.e., BBRI, BBNI and to a lesser extent BBCA and BMRI).These resulted in net inflow of US$67mn.Within EM, India saw a big inflow of US$3bn during the week, while ASEAN EM peers still faced outflows albeit easing from prior weeks. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

BRIDS Market Pulse : Chart of the week – Nov24-end Domestic Fund Sector Positioning

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), MNC Sekuritas

MNC Sekuritas

MNC Sekuritas, the first wholly-owned subsidiary established by the Group back in 1989, provides a complete range of services, from equity, fixed income, investment banking to providing research to optimize clients’ investments. Thus far, the company has more than 140 points of sales with over 100,000 clients. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>China's coal inventory reached its peak in Sep-24 at 642.4mn tons, marking a robust demand of +22.7% YoY (Exhibit 01).</li><li>This was supported by import volume of +11.9% YoY (Indonesia: +2.1% YoY, accounting for 43.3% of total imports), amid a moderate growth in coal thermal output +1.0% YoY in 9M24.</li><li>This increase aligns with policies aimed at enhancing energy security and rising consumption trends that have been evident over the past two years.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China's coal inventory reached its peak in Sep-24 at 642.4mn tons, marking a robust demand of +22.7% YoY (Exhibit 01).This was supported by import volume of +11.9% YoY (Indonesia: +2.1% YoY, accounting for 43.3% of total imports), amid a moderate growth in coal thermal output +1.0% YoY in 9M24.This increase aligns with policies aimed at enhancing energy security and rising consumption trends that have been evident over the past two years.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Chief Executive Officer, Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Chief Executive Officer

Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Emmer Capital Partners is an Asia Pacific focused financial advisory firm engaging in strategic financial asset allocation advice, bespoke thematic research and advising early-stage companies and connecting them to investors. Emmer Capital provides macro-economic and multi-asset investment strategy inputs to institutions, family offices, private wealth managers, private equity, and corporate boards directly and through independent research platforms. Emmer Capital also advises a wide range of startup companies on fund raising and business strategy. Emmer Capital's active engagement with the print and electronic media reaches a broad spectrum of investors across the globe.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Asia is cheap relative to the US - trading at less than 40% of US's P/BV - but that's because Asia's ROE has consistently declined relative to US's.</li>
<li>Over the next couple of years Asian ROEs are forecast to revive relative to the US's but all Asian markets are not forecast to participate in this recovery.</li>
<li>The "ROE Winners" (rising forecast ROEs) are Korea, Taiwan, India, Malaysia. Indonesia to stay flat but solidly higher than Asian average. We are skeptical of HK/China and Thailand's ROE recovery.</li>
</ul>


Asia is cheap relative to the US - trading at less than 40% of US's P/BV - but that's because Asia's ROE has consistently declined relative to US's.
Over the next couple of years Asian ROEs are forecast to revive relative to the US's but all Asian markets are not forecast to participate in this recovery.
The "ROE Winners" (rising forecast ROEs) are Korea, Taiwan, India, Malaysia. Indonesia to stay flat but solidly higher than Asian average. We are skeptical of HK/China and Thailand's ROE recovery.


Asian Equities: Be Selective - Focus on The "ROE Winners"

Indonesia

The Jakarta Stock Price Index is a modified capitalization-weighted index of all stocks listed on the regular board of the Indonesia Stock Exchange. The index was developed with a base index value of 100 as of August 10, 1982. Please look at CDR JA<GO> for exchange trading days.

Jakarta Stock Exchange Composite Index (JCI INDEX)

Jakarta Stock Exchange Composite Index (JCI INDEX)

Equity Strategy: Potential Winners from BI’s Surprise Rate Cut

The period of policy rate cut was historically positive for JCI, which delivered 21% return during FY16-18 125bps rate cut.

BRI Danareksa Research

FY25 Outlook: Attractive Valuation Emerges as Headwind and Soft Growth Outlook Are Priced In

Despite external headwinds on Rupiah and liquidity, we believe JCI valuation has currently priced in a soft growth outlook for FY25.

BRI Danareksa Research

BRIDS Market Pulse : Chart of the week – Nov24-end Domestic Fund Sector Positioning

JCI rose 3.8% wow, partly driven by foreign funds inflows particularly into INDF, ASII BREN, UNTR, and GOTO, which more than offset the persisting...

BRI Danareksa Research

Coal Sectoral Update December 3, 2024

China's coal inventory reached its peak in Sep-24 at 642.4mn tons, marking a robust demand of +22.7% YoY. This was supported by import volume of...

MNC Sekuritas

Asian Equities: Be Selective - Focus on The "ROE Winners"

Asia's cheap P/BV compared to the US is due to low ROE. Over the next couple of years Asian ROE is forecast to revive relative to US, driven by...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Equity Strategy: Potential Winners from BI’s Surprise Rate Cut

The period of policy rate cut was historically positive for JCI, which delivered 21% return during FY16-18 125bps rate cut.

BRI Danareksa Research

FY25 Outlook: Attractive Valuation Emerges as Headwind and Soft Growth Outlook Are Priced In

Despite external headwinds on Rupiah and liquidity, we believe JCI valuation has currently priced in a soft growth outlook for FY25.

BRI Danareksa Research

BRIDS Market Pulse : Chart of the week – Nov24-end Domestic Fund Sector Positioning

JCI rose 3.8% wow, partly driven by foreign funds inflows particularly into INDF, ASII BREN, UNTR, and GOTO, which more than offset the persisting...

BRI Danareksa Research

Coal Sectoral Update December 3, 2024

China's coal inventory reached its peak in Sep-24 at 642.4mn tons, marking a robust demand of +22.7% YoY. This was supported by import volume of...

MNC Sekuritas

Asian Equities: Be Selective - Focus on The "ROE Winners"

​Asia's cheap P/BV compared to the US is due to low ROE. Over the next couple of years Asian ROE is forecast to revive relative to US, driven by...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Asia's cheap P/BV compared to the US is due to low ROE. Over the next couple of years Asian ROE is forecast to revive relative to US, driven by...