Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Recent developments have continued to reinforce our bullish outlook on global equities (MSCI ACWI).</li>
<li>There is no reason to fight this bullish trend, and we continue to expect more upside into the early part of 2024.</li>
<li>Upgrading Mexico to Overweight; Technology Remains Global Leadership; Actionable Themes: 44 individual stock buy recommendations within Technology, Services, Consumer Discretionary, Financials, and Materials</li>
</ul>


Recent developments have continued to reinforce our bullish outlook on global equities (MSCI ACWI).
There is no reason to fight this bullish trend, and we continue to expect more upside into the early part of 2024.
Upgrading Mexico to Overweight; Technology Remains Global Leadership; Actionable Themes: 44 individual stock buy recommendations within Technology, Services, Consumer Discretionary, Financials, and Materials


Upgrading Mexico to Overweight; Technology Remains Global Leadership; Overall Bullish Outlook Intact

EURO STOXX 50 Price EUR / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>As discussed in our previous Int'l Compass (June 29, 2023), we are bullish on global equities (MSCI ACWI) as long as ACWI-US is above $93, targeting $110</li>
<li>Bullish developments have continued: DXY breaking below $101-$101.50, RS bottoming for small-caps, MSCI ACWI ex-U.S. (ACWX-US) 1+ year breakout above $50, Italy's FTSE MIB breaking above multi-year resistance at 28,100.</li>
<li>This is only further evidence supporting our bullish outlook. We are getting the breakout above 4400-4415 on the EURO STOXX 50 that we've been expecting. Buys in Energy, Materials, Financials</li>
</ul>


As discussed in our previous Int'l Compass (June 29, 2023), we are bullish on global equities (MSCI ACWI) as long as ACWI-US is above $93, targeting $110
Bullish developments have continued: DXY breaking below $101-$101.50, RS bottoming for small-caps, MSCI ACWI ex-U.S. (ACWX-US) 1+ year breakout above $50, Italy's FTSE MIB breaking above multi-year resistance at 28,100.
This is only further evidence supporting our bullish outlook. We are getting the breakout above 4400-4415 on the EURO STOXX 50 that we've been expecting. Buys in Energy, Materials, Financials


Bullish Developments Continue; MSCI ACWI Ex-US 1-Yr Breakout; Buys in Energy, Materials, Financials

<ul>
<li>Global equities (MSCI ACWI) have marginally broken above the top-end of our anticipated 2023 trading range of $93 on ACWI-US.</li>
<li>In our 4/18/23 Int’l MacroVision we acknowledged that a break above $93 and a reach to $96-$97 was also possible – and so far, this is what has played out.</li>
<li>We will continue to watch the $93 level for a potential false breakout, but as long as the ACWI-US is above $90.50, we cannot be bearish.</li>
</ul>


Global equities (MSCI ACWI) have marginally broken above the top-end of our anticipated 2023 trading range of $93 on ACWI-US.
In our 4/18/23 Int’l MacroVision we acknowledged that a break above $93 and a reach to $96-$97 was also possible – and so far, this is what has played out.
We will continue to watch the $93 level for a potential false breakout, but as long as the ACWI-US is above $90.50, we cannot be bearish.


MSCI EM Improving; Buys in Value & Large-Cap EM; Remain Overweight Japan, India, Taiwan, and Greece

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Fletcher Building (FBU) will report its FY26 result on 20 August.</li><li>We don’t expect any surprises given the recent guidance and trading updates.</li><li>We expect the focus to be on: (1) underlying earnings and margin run-rates—we estimate 2H26 materials and distribution EBIT up <em>c.</em>+25% on the prior year; (2) balance sheet de-leveraging given recent asset sales and potential divestment of the residential division; and (3) progress on improving returns on capital.</li></ul>

Fletcher Building (FBU) will report its FY26 result on 20 August.We don’t expect any surprises given the recent guidance and trading updates.We expect the focus to be on: (1) underlying earnings and margin run-rates—we estimate 2H26 materials and distribution EBIT up c.+25% on the prior year; (2) balance sheet de-leveraging given recent asset sales and potential divestment of the residential division; and (3) progress on improving returns on capital.

Fletcher Building FY26 Preview—Last Months News

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>New Zealand: Lowest Auckland house sales since May 2020; Residential building activity robust</li><li>Australia: Construction activity remains mixed; James Hardie (JHX) announces new CEO</li><li>US: Residential construction ticks down, non-resi construction robust</li></ul>

New Zealand: Lowest Auckland house sales since May 2020; Residential building activity robustAustralia: Construction activity remains mixed; James Hardie (JHX) announces new CEOUS: Residential construction ticks down, non-resi construction robust

Australia

James Hardie Industries Plc manufactures building products for new home construction and remodeling.  The Company's products include fiber cement siding, backerboard, and pipe. James Hardie Industries operates in the United States, Australia and New Zealand.

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James Hardie Industries Plc (JHX AU)

Upgrading Mexico to Overweight; Technology Remains Global Leadership; Overall Bullish Outlook Intact

Upgrading Mexico $EWW to Overweight; Bullish Outlook Intact on $ACWI; Technology Remains Global Leadership. 44 individual buys highlighted in Tech,...

Vermilion Research

Bullish Developments Continue; MSCI ACWI Ex-US 1-Yr Breakout; Buys in Energy, Materials, Financials

We remain bullish on global equities as long as $ACWI remains above $93, targeting $110; Bullish developments continue: $DXY below $101.50, small...

Vermilion Research

MSCI EM Improving; Buys in Value & Large-Cap EM; Remain Overweight Japan, India, Taiwan, and Greece

MSCI EM Improving; Buys in Value & Large-Cap EM $TSM #Samsung $BABA; Remain Overweight Japan, India, Taiwan, and Greece. $ACWI break above $93 and...

Vermilion Research

Fletcher Building FY26 Preview—Last Months News

Fletcher Building (FBU) will report its FY26 result on 20 August. We don’t expect any surprises given the recent guidance and trading updates. We...

Forsyth Barr

Building Weekly (7-Sep-2022)

Auckland sales down -43.3% yoy, average/median prices trending downwards-2.0%/-0.8% yoy although seem to be stabilising on a monthly basis +3.1%...

Forsyth Barr

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