Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Three shareholders of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/socionext-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36351:1" rel="noopener">Socionext (6526 JP)</a> aim to raise around US$1.4bn via selling all of their shares in Socionext.</li>
<li>We have covered the background of the deal in our earlier note, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/socionext-placement-a-us-1-8bn-cleanup-will-have-to-give-up-some-of-its-6x-listing-gains" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:106206" rel="noopener">Socionext Placement - A US$1.8bn Cleanup, Will Have to Give up Some of Its 6x Listing Gains</a>.</li>
<li>In this note, we talk about the updates and look at the performance of some of the past Japan deals.</li>
</ul>


Three shareholders of Socionext (6526 JP) aim to raise around US$1.4bn via selling all of their shares in Socionext.
We have covered the background of the deal in our earlier note, Socionext Placement - A US$1.8bn Cleanup, Will Have to Give up Some of Its 6x Listing Gains.
In this note, we talk about the updates and look at the performance of some of the past Japan deals.


Socionext Placement - Valuation More Reasonable but past Secondary Offerings Have a Mixed Record

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Global equities (MSCI ACWI) have marginally broken above the top-end of our anticipated 2023 trading range of $93 on ACWI-US.</li>
<li>In our 4/18/23 Int’l MacroVision we acknowledged that a break above $93 and a reach to $96-$97 was also possible – and so far, this is what has played out.</li>
<li>We will continue to watch the $93 level for a potential false breakout, but as long as the ACWI-US is above $90.50, we cannot be bearish.</li>
</ul>


Global equities (MSCI ACWI) have marginally broken above the top-end of our anticipated 2023 trading range of $93 on ACWI-US.
In our 4/18/23 Int’l MacroVision we acknowledged that a break above $93 and a reach to $96-$97 was also possible – and so far, this is what has played out.
We will continue to watch the $93 level for a potential false breakout, but as long as the ACWI-US is above $90.50, we cannot be bearish.


MSCI EM Improving; Buys in Value & Large-Cap EM; Remain Overweight Japan, India, Taiwan, and Greece

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Q123 Net Revenue was strong, exceeding Q119 (pre-Covid) levels by over 12%</li>
<li>Almost six months into recovery, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trip-com-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:180:1" rel="noopener">Trip.com (TCOM US)</a> has also managed SG&amp;A expenses well</li>
<li>A good result for the company, but we see no reason to alter our long-term view</li>
</ul>


Q123 Net Revenue was strong, exceeding Q119 (pre-Covid) levels by over 12%
Almost six months into recovery, Trip.com (TCOM US) has also managed SG&amp;A expenses well
A good result for the company, but we see no reason to alter our long-term view


Trip.com Q123 | Revenue Surges Past Q119 Level | Decade-High Margin | But Our Thesis Is Unchanged

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Domestic and outbound Chinese air traffic continued to recover in April, but aircraft deployed on international routes continued to operate far below capacity</li>
<li>Headline numbers from the recent Labor Day holiday period show an increase in domestic travel activity to above 2019 levels, but spending per trip remains depressed</li>
<li>Tourism activity has increased dramatically compared to 2022, but five months after most Covid-19 restrictions were lifted there are few signs of stong demand for leisure travel</li>
</ul>


Domestic and outbound Chinese air traffic continued to recover in April, but aircraft deployed on international routes continued to operate far below capacity
Headline numbers from the recent Labor Day holiday period show an increase in domestic travel activity to above 2019 levels, but spending per trip remains depressed
Tourism activity has increased dramatically compared to 2022, but five months after most Covid-19 restrictions were lifted there are few signs of stong demand for leisure travel


Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | Recovery Continues | But Seats Stay Empty | (May 2023)

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rakuten-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31:1" rel="noopener">Rakuten (4755 JP)</a> aims to raise up to US$2.4bn (JPY323bn) via a global offering.</li>
<li>We have covered various aspects of the deal in our earlier notes, see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/rakuten-possible-us-2-2bn-placement-will-be-a-huge-deal-to-digest-but-it-s-not-all-bad" target="_blank" rel="noopener">here</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/rakuten-us-2-4bn-placement-larger-than-rumored-some-indications-of-finality" target="_blank" rel="noopener">here</a>.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the updates since our last note, as well as the performance of some of the past large primary raises in Japan.</li>
</ul>



Rakuten (4755 JP) aims to raise up to US$2.4bn (JPY323bn) via a global offering.
We have covered various aspects of the deal in our earlier notes, see here and here.
In this note, we will talk about the updates since our last note, as well as the performance of some of the past large primary raises in Japan.


Rakuten US$2.4bn Placement - Recent Updates and Comparison to past Deals

Japan

Japan Airlines Co. Ltd. provides air transportation services. The Company offers a variety of scheduled  flights and unscheduled flights throughout the world as well as offers air courier services. Japan Airlines also provides tickets, resort hotels, and travel agencies services.

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Japan Airlines (9201 JP)

Socionext Placement - Valuation More Reasonable but past Secondary Offerings Have a Mixed Record

Three shareholders of Socionext (6526 JP) aim to raise around US$1.4bn via selling all of their shares in Socionext. In this note, we look at the...

Sumeet Singh

MSCI EM Improving; Buys in Value & Large-Cap EM; Remain Overweight Japan, India, Taiwan, and Greece

MSCI EM Improving; Buys in Value & Large-Cap EM $TSM #Samsung $BABA; Remain Overweight Japan, India, Taiwan, and Greece. $ACWI break above $93 and...

Vermilion Research

Trip.com Q123 | Revenue Surges Past Q119 Level | Decade-High Margin | But Our Thesis Is Unchanged

Trip.com posted a strong result in Q123, with Revenue finally above pre-Covid levels and core margins at a decade-high. But management seemed to...

Tracking Traffic

Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | Recovery Continues | But Seats Stay Empty | (May 2023)

In April domestic and international air traffic continued to improve from depressed pandemic levels, but there are growing signs that Chinese...

Tracking Traffic

Rakuten US$2.4bn Placement - Recent Updates and Comparison to past Deals

Rakuten (4755 JP) aims to raise up to US$2.4bn (JPY323bn) via a global offering. In this note, we talk about the updates since our last note. and...

Sumeet Singh

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