Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

Equity Bottom-Up

*Solid March Trading Result: Singapore Exchange (SGX.SP) [SGX] reported strong FY 3Q21 securities and derivatives volumes due to improving market caps and velocity. Securities value traded and average daily trading vale (ADTV) increased 50% and 24% MOM in March, respectively. Derivative volumes also improved 31% MOM to 23.2 mn contracts, reaching a new peak since July 2020; and *A Wrench Thrown Into SGX’s SPAC Plan:  The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) issued accounting guidance for SPACs, calling warrant issuance by SPACs liabilities rather than equity instruments. This could disrupt new SPAC filings, and certainly throw a wrench into SGX’s SPAC plans.

*Solid March Trading Result: Singapore Exchange (SGX.SP) [SGX] reported strong FY 3Q21 securities and derivatives volumes due to improving market caps and velocity. Securities value traded and average daily trading vale (ADTV) increased 50% and 24% MOM in March, respectively. Derivative volumes also improved 31% MOM to 23.2 mn contracts, reaching a new peak since July 2020; and *A Wrench Thrown Into SGX’s SPAC Plan:  The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) issued accounting guidance for SPACs, calling warrant issuance by SPACs liabilities rather than equity instruments. This could disrupt new SPAC filings, and certainly throw a wrench into SGX’s SPAC plans.

Singapore Exchange – Solid Quarter, But SPAC Setback

*Trying SPACs On For Size: On March 31, 2021, the Singapore Exchange (SGX.SP) [SGX] issued a Consultation Paper on the Proposed Listing Framework for Special Purpose Acquisition Companies (SPACs). The Consultation Paper is seeking comments on policy/rule proposals to allow SPAC listings on SGX;  *Blank Check Companies: Special Purpose Acquisition Companies (SPACs) are not new and have historically focused on the Over the Counter (OTC) pink sheet companies. SPACs are essentially known as blank check companies, essentially a shell company which raises a significant amount cash in an IPO; and*Not A Panacea: SPACs are not the panacea which will resolve SGX’s weakened revenue stream. Keep in mind that the majority of the US-listed SPACs remain below their USD 10 per share offering price and only seven have actually returned capital to investors. As the world heads toward a zero interest rate environment coupled with the giant vortex of skittish liquidity backstopped by central banks, the SPAC frenzy looks to be just the latest in a long line of unintended consequences of risk taking.

*Trying SPACs On For Size: On March 31, 2021, the Singapore Exchange (SGX.SP) [SGX] issued a Consultation Paper on the Proposed Listing Framework for Special Purpose Acquisition Companies (SPACs). The Consultation Paper is seeking comments on policy/rule proposals to allow SPAC listings on SGX;  *Blank Check Companies: Special Purpose Acquisition Companies (SPACs) are not new and have historically focused on the Over the Counter (OTC) pink sheet companies. SPACs are essentially known as blank check companies, essentially a shell company which raises a significant amount cash in an IPO; and*Not A Panacea: SPACs are not the panacea which will resolve SGX’s weakened revenue stream. Keep in mind that the majority of the US-listed SPACs remain below their USD 10 per share offering price and only seven have actually returned capital to investors. As the world heads toward a zero interest rate environment coupled with the giant vortex of skittish liquidity backstopped by central banks, the SPAC frenzy looks to be just the latest in a long line of unintended consequences of risk taking.

Singapore Exchange – Into Merlion’s Mouth

Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing / Equity Bottom-Up

Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing (388 HK)

*Mainland Chinese Stock Exchange Powerhouse: According to Reuters, mainland China is contemplating the establishment of a new stock exchange to attract overseas-listed firms (including Hong Kong) which will bolster Shanghai’s status as a global financial center; and  *Here Comes The Pain Trade: If mainland China is successful this time around (and we think that they will be), it is probably pretty fair to say that the HKEX/mainland China growth story will have come to an abrupt end. In terms of where we are with valuation, HKEX’s P/E has exploded in the face of weaker volumes on the expectation of future US ADR listings. The increase in the stamp duty to cover Hong Kong’s tax shortfall only adds to the misery that HKEX may encounter.

*Mainland Chinese Stock Exchange Powerhouse: According to Reuters, mainland China is contemplating the establishment of a new stock exchange to attract overseas-listed firms (including Hong Kong) which will bolster Shanghai’s status as a global financial center; and  *Here Comes The Pain Trade: If mainland China is successful this time around (and we think that they will be), it is probably pretty fair to say that the HKEX/mainland China growth story will have come to an abrupt end. In terms of where we are with valuation, HKEX’s P/E has exploded in the face of weaker volumes on the expectation of future US ADR listings. The increase in the stamp duty to cover Hong Kong’s tax shortfall only adds to the misery that HKEX may encounter.

Hong Kong Exchanges & Clearing – Building The HKEX Coffin

China and US Equity Analyst

Roger Xie

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-exchanges-clearing" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:490:1" rel="noopener">HKEX (388 HK)</a> share price and Hong Kong market in general have tumbled significantly after Hong Kong government revealed the proposal to increase stamp duty on stock to 13bps from 10bps for both buy and sell transaction. The change needs to be approved by the HK Legislative Council and enacted as a law for it to be effective. We believe the real impact of stamp duty is at least 6 month away. And the increase of stock stamp duty could effectively alleviate the budget pressure at Hong Kong government due to the prolonged COVID-19 pandemic. </li>
<li>HKEx serves as the only offshore gateway to China capital market. HKEx has consistently enjoyed the superior margin and profitability, given that it can charge higher trading fee rates than other bourses. Chinese companies and investors prefer HKEx as the offshore trading venue. We don't expect this dynamic will change. In our view, HKEx for Chinese ADR listing and expanding business into lucrative derivative trading would be the game changer.  Although the higher stamp duty could moderately increase trading cost, the impact on trading volume will be small. We believe the market has over-reacted in the sell-off. On the contrary, the multi-year strategic transformation of HKEx would be much larger earning driver for upside. We recommend investors to buy HKEx during the pull-back.
</li>
<li>HKEx also reported 4Q20 net income of HK$2,925mn, up 48% year-over-year. FY20 net income of HK$11,505mn is up 23% year-over-year. Both results are above investors' expectation. The beat was largely driven by investment income, partly offset by higher depreciation. HKEX (388 HK) January ADT (Average Daily Turnover) remains very strong, delivering amazing 136% year-over-year growth in the month. We forecast Securities ADT of HK$240bn in FY 21 (Hong Kong and Stock Connect Northbound) and reiterate HKEx TP HKD 550. 
</li>
</ul>



HKEX (388 HK) share price and Hong Kong market in general have tumbled significantly after Hong Kong government revealed the proposal to increase stamp duty on stock to 13bps from 10bps for both buy and sell transaction. The change needs to be approved by the HK Legislative Council and enacted as a law for it to be effective. We believe the real impact of stamp duty is at least 6 month away. And the increase of stock stamp duty could effectively alleviate the budget pressure at Hong Kong government due to the prolonged COVID-19 pandemic. 
HKEx serves as the only offshore gateway to China capital market. HKEx has consistently enjoyed the superior margin and profitability, given that it can charge higher trading fee rates than other bourses. Chinese companies and investors prefer HKEx as the offshore trading venue. We don't expect this dynamic will change. In our view, HKEx for Chinese ADR listing and expanding business into lucrative derivative trading would be the game changer.  Although the higher stamp duty could moderately increase trading cost, the impact on trading volume will be small. We believe the market has over-reacted in the sell-off. On the contrary, the multi-year strategic transformation of HKEx would be much larger earning driver for upside. We recommend investors to buy HKEx during the pull-back.

HKEx also reported 4Q20 net income of HK$2,925mn, up 48% year-over-year. FY20 net income of HK$11,505mn is up 23% year-over-year. Both results are above investors' expectation. The beat was largely driven by investment income, partly offset by higher depreciation. HKEX (388 HK) January ADT (Average Daily Turnover) remains very strong, delivering amazing 136% year-over-year growth in the month. We forecast Securities ADT of HK$240bn in FY 21 (Hong Kong and Stock Connect Northbound) and reiterate HKEx TP HKD 550. 



HKEx(388.HK): Transformational Strategy Should Offset the Higher Stamp Duty Fear

*Poor Quarter: Hong Kong Exchanges &amp; Clearing (388.HK) [HKEX] reported 4Q20 earnings of HKD 2.9 bn, declining HKD 522 mn (15.6%) linked quarter. Results were challenged on many fronts, as evidenced by HKEX’ negative operating jaws during the period, whereby revenues declined HKD 210 mn (4.0%) whilst expenses jumped HKD 187 mn (13.2%)– pushing its C/I ratio higher by 480 bp to 31.4%; and*Stamp Dutied: Despite the poor showing during 4Q20, the real story for HKEX is the issue of the stamp duty which likely will impact earnings and market sentiment for the foreseeable future. Given the financial stress of the pandemic on the finances of the Hong Kong government,  on February 24, 2021 it was announced that there would be a 3 bp or 30% increase in the stamp duty to help offset the government budget deficit.

*Poor Quarter: Hong Kong Exchanges &amp; Clearing (388.HK) [HKEX] reported 4Q20 earnings of HKD 2.9 bn, declining HKD 522 mn (15.6%) linked quarter. Results were challenged on many fronts, as evidenced by HKEX’ negative operating jaws during the period, whereby revenues declined HKD 210 mn (4.0%) whilst expenses jumped HKD 187 mn (13.2%)– pushing its C/I ratio higher by 480 bp to 31.4%; and*Stamp Dutied: Despite the poor showing during 4Q20, the real story for HKEX is the issue of the stamp duty which likely will impact earnings and market sentiment for the foreseeable future. Given the financial stress of the pandemic on the finances of the Hong Kong government,  on February 24, 2021 it was announced that there would be a 3 bp or 30% increase in the stamp duty to help offset the government budget deficit.

Hong Kong Exchanges & Clearing – Hitting The Wall

Japan

Japan Exchange Group Inc is the holding company created through the merger of Tokyo Stock Exchange Group, Inc and Osaka Securities Exchange Co., Ltd. The group provides and operates a marketplace for the trading of equities, futures, and options. The Group manages the trading, as well as administers listed stocks and registered members.

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Japan Exchange Group (8697 JP)

Singapore Exchange – Solid Quarter, But SPAC Setback

SINGAPORE EXCHANGE: SGX reported strong securities/derivatives volumes on improving market caps/velocity. The U.S. SEC, however, issued SPAC...

Thomas J. Monaco

Singapore Exchange – Into Merlion’s Mouth

SINGAPORE EXCHANGE: SGX issued a Consultation Paper on SPACs seeking comments on policy proposals to allow SPAC IPOs. SPACs are not the panacea...

Thomas J. Monaco

Hong Kong Exchanges & Clearing – Building The HKEX Coffin

HONG KONG EXCHANGES & CLEARING: Mainland China is contemplating a new stock exchange to attract overseas firms. If mainland China is successful,...

Thomas J. Monaco

HKEx(388.HK): Transformational Strategy Should Offset the Higher Stamp Duty Fear

HKEx serves as the only offshore gateway to China capital market. We believe the market has over-reacted on higher stamp duty news in the sell...

Roger Xie

Hong Kong Exchanges & Clearing – Hitting The Wall

HONG KONG EXCHANGES & CLEARING: HKEX reported a 15.6% QOQ decline in 4Q20 earnings, given the period's negative operating jaws. The story is the...

Thomas J. Monaco

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