Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Equity Bottom-Up

Mizuho Financial Group / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Mizuho's current tax expenses can see normalization that restores profitability by June quarter</li>
<li>Yield curve control relief coming at a time of tax normalization, can be significant to profit</li>
<li>Credit costs have moved higher, but the magnitude may wane, given NPL distribution</li>
</ul>


Mizuho's current tax expenses can see normalization that restores profitability by June quarter
Yield curve control relief coming at a time of tax normalization, can be significant to profit
Credit costs have moved higher, but the magnitude may wane, given NPL distribution


Mizuho - Tax Rate Normalization, Yield Curve Control Relief, Can Mean Profit Surge

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Invincible Investment / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/invincible-investment-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3617:1" rel="noopener">Invincible Investment (8963 JP)</a> plans to raise around US$230m to fund the acquisition of six hotel assets in Japan.</li>
<li>The stock has done well over the past year and so have most of its deals which we have covered in the past.</li>
<li>In this note, we talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.</li>
</ul>



Invincible Investment (8963 JP) plans to raise around US$230m to fund the acquisition of six hotel assets in Japan.
The stock has done well over the past year and so have most of its deals which we have covered in the past.
In this note, we talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.


Invincible Investment Corp Placement - Decent Accretion Despite the Large Dilution

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>Since the announcement of the US$1.9 billion secondary placement, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/socionext-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36351:1" rel="noopener">Socionext (6526 JP)</a>’s shares are down -25.0% from the undisturbed price of JPY21,950 per share (5 July).</li>
<li>So far, Socionext’s shares have mostly followed the pattern of previous large placements. Investors participating in previous large Japanese placements tend to secure positive returns.</li>
<li>The offering will likely be priced on 11 July. Due to the steep share price decline, Socionext is trading at an undemanding multiple compared to global SoC peers.  </li>
</ul>


Since the announcement of the US$1.9 billion secondary placement, Socionext (6526 JP)’s shares are down -25.0% from the undisturbed price of JPY21,950 per share (5 July).
So far, Socionext’s shares have mostly followed the pattern of previous large placements. Investors participating in previous large Japanese placements tend to secure positive returns.
The offering will likely be priced on 11 July. Due to the steep share price decline, Socionext is trading at an undemanding multiple compared to global SoC peers.  


Socionext (6526 JP): The Current Playbook

Plus Alpha Consulting / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Three shareholders of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/plus-alpha-consulting-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33441:1" rel="noopener">Plus Alpha Consulting (4071 JP)</a> (PAC) aim to raise around US$230m via selling over 26% of the company.</li>
<li>PAC was listed in 2021 and after a somewhat tepid initial performance it has been doing well over the past year.</li>
<li>In this note, we talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework</li>
</ul>


Three shareholders of Plus Alpha Consulting (4071 JP) (PAC) aim to raise around US$230m via selling over 26% of the company.
PAC was listed in 2021 and after a somewhat tepid initial performance it has been doing well over the past year.
In this note, we talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework


Plus Alpha Consulting Placement - Pulling Out All Stops for Deal Success as Insiders Are Selling

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Three shareholders of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/socionext-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36351:1" rel="noopener">Socionext (6526 JP)</a> aim to raise around US$1.4bn via selling all of their shares in Socionext.</li>
<li>We have covered the background of the deal in our earlier note, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/socionext-placement-a-us-1-8bn-cleanup-will-have-to-give-up-some-of-its-6x-listing-gains" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:106206" rel="noopener">Socionext Placement - A US$1.8bn Cleanup, Will Have to Give up Some of Its 6x Listing Gains</a>.</li>
<li>In this note, we talk about the updates and look at the performance of some of the past Japan deals.</li>
</ul>


Three shareholders of Socionext (6526 JP) aim to raise around US$1.4bn via selling all of their shares in Socionext.
We have covered the background of the deal in our earlier note, Socionext Placement - A US$1.8bn Cleanup, Will Have to Give up Some of Its 6x Listing Gains.
In this note, we talk about the updates and look at the performance of some of the past Japan deals.


Socionext Placement - Valuation More Reasonable but past Secondary Offerings Have a Mixed Record

Japan

Japan Post Bank Co. Ltd. provides general banking services. The Company offers deposits, savings, loans, currency exchange transactions, investment trusts, national bonds, and other related banking services to individuals and businesses. Japan Post Bank also provides other financial services such as insurance agency and financing service.

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Japan Post Bank (7182 JP)

Mizuho - Tax Rate Normalization, Yield Curve Control Relief, Can Mean Profit Surge

A normalization of current tax expenses, can completely restore profit, and where this occurs with YCC relief, the profit impact can be...

Daniel Tabbush

Invincible Investment Corp Placement - Decent Accretion Despite the Large Dilution

Invincible Investment plans to raise around US$230m to fund the acquisition of six hotel assets in Japan. In this note, we talk about the deal...

Sumeet Singh

Socionext (6526 JP): The Current Playbook

So far, Socionext’s shares have mostly followed the pattern of previous large placements. Investors participating in previous large Japanese...

Arun George

Plus Alpha Consulting Placement - Pulling Out All Stops for Deal Success as Insiders Are Selling

Three shareholders of Plus Alpha Consulting (4071 JP) (PAC) aim to raise around US$230m via selling over 26% of the company.

Sumeet Singh

Socionext Placement - Valuation More Reasonable but past Secondary Offerings Have a Mixed Record

Three shareholders of Socionext (6526 JP) aim to raise around US$1.4bn via selling all of their shares in Socionext. In this note, we look at the...

Sumeet Singh

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