IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tonami-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2615:1" rel="noopener">Tonami Holdings (9070 JP)</a> has recommended a <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-post-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:359:1" rel="noopener">Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP)</a>-sponsored MBO at JPY10,200, a 73.8% premium to the last close.</li>
<li>The offer is attractive compared to historical trading ranges and peer multiples. The offer represents an all-time high. </li>
<li>The offer is above the midpoint of the special committee IFA’s DCF valuation range but below that of the target IFA. However, the required minority acceptance rate is not onerous. </li>
</ul>



Tonami Holdings (9070 JP) has recommended a Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP)-sponsored MBO at JPY10,200, a 73.8% premium to the last close.
The offer is attractive compared to historical trading ranges and peer multiples. The offer represents an all-time high. 
The offer is above the midpoint of the special committee IFA’s DCF valuation range but below that of the target IFA. However, the required minority acceptance rate is not onerous. 


Tonami Holdings (9070 JP): Japan Post Holdings’ (6178 JP) JPY10,200 Tender Offer

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Reuters reports that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-post-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP)</a> (JPH) is planning to sell shares in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-post-bank-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:838:1" rel="noopener">Japan Post Bank (7182 JP)</a> (JPB), which could total some JPY600 billion (US$4.0 billion).</li>
<li>The potential offering would align with JPH’s stated goal of reducing its equity interest in JPB to 50% or less by FY 2025.</li>
<li>The potential offering is relatively smaller than JPB’s 2023 offering. Compared to its peers, JPB’s valuation remains undemanding. </li>
</ul>


Reuters reports that Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP) (JPH) is planning to sell shares in Japan Post Bank (7182 JP) (JPB), which could total some JPY600 billion (US$4.0 billion).
The potential offering would align with JPH’s stated goal of reducing its equity interest in JPB to 50% or less by FY 2025.
The potential offering is relatively smaller than JPB’s 2023 offering. Compared to its peers, JPB’s valuation remains undemanding. 


Japan Post Bank (7182 JP): Japan Post Holding (6178 JP)’s Rumoured Offering

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>Media reports indicate that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-post-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:359:1" rel="noopener">Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP)</a> could sell JPY 600bn (US$4.02bn) of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-post-bank-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:838:1" rel="noopener">Japan Post Bank (7182 JP)</a> with the announcement coming as early as this week.</li>
<li>The selldown is driven by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-post-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:359:1" rel="noopener">Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP)</a> needing to reduce its holding in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-post-bank-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:838:1" rel="noopener">Japan Post Bank (7182 JP)</a> to 50% or lower by March 2026.</li>
<li>Passive index trackers will buy around 11.4% of the offering at the time of settlement of the placement shares with the balance being bought in January 2026.</li>
</ul>


Media reports indicate that Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP) could sell JPY 600bn (US$4.02bn) of Japan Post Bank (7182 JP) with the announcement coming as early as this week.
The selldown is driven by Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP) needing to reduce its holding in Japan Post Bank (7182 JP) to 50% or lower by March 2026.
Passive index trackers will buy around 11.4% of the offering at the time of settlement of the placement shares with the balance being bought in January 2026.


Japan Post Bank (7182 JP): Another BIG Offering of US$4bn Expected; Overhang Will Be Removed

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

JX Advanced Metals / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>JX Advance Metal’s (JXAM) parent, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/eneos-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:638:1" rel="noopener">ENEOS Holdings (5020 JP)</a>, is looking to raise around US$2.6bn via selling more than half of its stake in JXAM in its Japan IPO.</li>
<li>JXAM engages in business activities primarily focused on the development, manufacture and sale of materials made from copper and rare metals, which are used in the semiconductor and ICT fields.</li>
<li>In this note, we talk about the not-so-positive aspects of the deal.</li>
</ul>


JX Advance Metal’s (JXAM) parent, ENEOS Holdings (5020 JP), is looking to raise around US$2.6bn via selling more than half of its stake in JXAM in its Japan IPO.
JXAM engages in business activities primarily focused on the development, manufacture and sale of materials made from copper and rare metals, which are used in the semiconductor and ICT fields.
In this note, we talk about the not-so-positive aspects of the deal.


JX Advance Metals Pre-IPO - The Negatives - Isn't There Yet

<ul>
<li>JX Advance Metal’s (JXAM) parent, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/eneos-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:638:1" rel="noopener">ENEOS Holdings (5020 JP)</a>, is looking to raise around US$2.6bn via selling more than half of its stake in JXAM in its Japan IPO.</li>
<li>JXAM engages in business activities primarily focused on the development, manufacture and sale of materials made from copper and rare metals, which are used  in the semiconductor and ICT fields.</li>
<li>In this note, we talk about the positive aspects of the deal.</li>
</ul>


JX Advance Metal’s (JXAM) parent, ENEOS Holdings (5020 JP), is looking to raise around US$2.6bn via selling more than half of its stake in JXAM in its Japan IPO.
JXAM engages in business activities primarily focused on the development, manufacture and sale of materials made from copper and rare metals, which are used  in the semiconductor and ICT fields.
In this note, we talk about the positive aspects of the deal.


JX Advance Metals Pre-IPO - The Positives - Transforming

Japan

Japan Post Holdings Co. Ltd. operates post stations, banks, and insurance business. The Company offers letters and goods transportation services, stamp sales, deposits, loans, and insurance products.

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Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP)

Tonami Holdings (9070 JP): Japan Post Holdings’ (6178 JP) JPY10,200 Tender Offer

The offer is attractive compared to historical trading ranges and peer multiples. The offer represents an all-time high.

Arun George

Japan Post Bank (7182 JP): Japan Post Holding (6178 JP)’s Rumoured Offering

The potential offering would align with JPH’s stated goal of reducing its equity interest in JPB to 50% or less by FY 2025. Compared to its peers,...

Arun George

Japan Post Bank (7182 JP): Another BIG Offering of US$4bn Expected; Overhang Will Be Removed

Media reports indicate that JPH could sell JPY600bn of JPB. The number could be slightly higher if JPH want to get to 50% from 61.5%. Passive...

Brian Freitas

JX Advance Metals Pre-IPO - The Negatives - Isn't There Yet

JX Advance Metal’s (JXAM) parent, ENEOS Holdings (5020 JP), is looking to raise US$2.6bn in its Japan IPO. In this note, we talk about the not-so...

Sumeet Singh

JX Advance Metals Pre-IPO - The Positives - Transforming

JX Advance Metal’s parent, ENEOS Holdings (5020 JP), is looking to raise around US$2.6bn via selling some of its stake in JXAM's Japan IPO. In this...

Sumeet Singh

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