European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>JT plans to acquire 100% of Vector Group at $15.00/share, a 29.9% premium. The offer requires over 50% acceptance, with Board support and completion expected by late 2024, pending approvals.</li>
<li>The shares go ex-dividend on August 30, with payment on September 12. Adjusted for the dividend, shares trade at a -0.4% gross spread. My fair value estimated is $15.92/share.</li>
<li>Consensus sets a target price of $16/share. JT may consider raising its offer to this level (6.67%), especially if they see Vector as a strong long-term investment.</li>
</ul>


JT plans to acquire 100% of Vector Group at $15.00/share, a 29.9% premium. The offer requires over 50% acceptance, with Board support and completion expected by late 2024, pending approvals.
The shares go ex-dividend on August 30, with payment on September 12. Adjusted for the dividend, shares trade at a -0.4% gross spread. My fair value estimated is $15.92/share.
Consensus sets a target price of $16/share. JT may consider raising its offer to this level (6.67%), especially if they see Vector as a strong long-term investment.


Japan Tobacco/Vector Group: Possible Bump-Up?

Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>With nominal GDP growing 6%YoY in the latest 3 quarters, Japanese interest rates will be gradually normalized. The JPY rebound, however, precludes the need for rapid BoJ hikes. </li>
<li>Unwinding of Yen carry-trades should take JPY to ¥125/US$ by end-2024, which will contribute to tightening monetary conditions sufficiently, further slowing inflation (from 2.85%YoY in May-Jun'24). </li>
<li>Appreciating JPY is bad for Japanese equities, so stay Underweight, with a defensive portfolio comprising utilities, pharmaceuticals and consumer staples. </li>
</ul>


With nominal GDP growing 6%YoY in the latest 3 quarters, Japanese interest rates will be gradually normalized. The JPY rebound, however, precludes the need for rapid BoJ hikes. 
Unwinding of Yen carry-trades should take JPY to ¥125/US$ by end-2024, which will contribute to tightening monetary conditions sufficiently, further slowing inflation (from 2.85%YoY in May-Jun'24). 
Appreciating JPY is bad for Japanese equities, so stay Underweight, with a defensive portfolio comprising utilities, pharmaceuticals and consumer staples. 


Japan: Normalizing Interest Rates as Nominal GDP Surges, Ending Deflation Era

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We believe a 1-4-month pullback/consolidation is ongoing, and we would look for an important low to be made near the U.S. election.</li>
<li>Supports to watch continue to be $110 on $ACWI and $41-42 on MSCI EM $EEM, and whether these levels hold or not will determine the severity of the pullback.</li>
<li>Primary reasons for this bearish expectation include major bullish RS inflections for defensive Sectors, and bearish price action in the U.S. (SPX), Japan (TOPIX/Nikkei 225), and Europe (EURO STOXX 50)</li>
</ul>


We believe a 1-4-month pullback/consolidation is ongoing, and we would look for an important low to be made near the U.S. election.
Supports to watch continue to be $110 on $ACWI and $41-42 on MSCI EM $EEM, and whether these levels hold or not will determine the severity of the pullback.
Primary reasons for this bearish expectation include major bullish RS inflections for defensive Sectors, and bearish price action in the U.S. (SPX), Japan (TOPIX/Nikkei 225), and Europe (EURO STOXX 50)


Pullback Continues $ACWI; Stick With Defensives; More Countries With Improving Price and RS Trends

Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Equity Bottom-Up

Smoore International Holdings / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>China's National Team was steadily buying ETF's during and after the Third Plenum.  Southbound Connect Flows continue to be positive during July.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/smoore-international-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28241:1" rel="noopener">Smoore International Holdings (6969 HK)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xinjiang-goldwind-science-technology-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10112:1" rel="noopener">Xinjiang Goldwind Science &amp; Technology (2208 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hisense-home-appliances-group-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20107:1" rel="noopener">Hisense Home Appliances Group Co., Ltd. H (921 HK)</a>  benefited from positive news sentiment this week.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chow-tai-fook-jewellery-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:549:1" rel="noopener">Chow Tai Fook Jewellery (1929 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/asm-pacific-technology-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15061:1" rel="noopener">ASM Pacific Technology (522 HK)</a> suffered on negative news, while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meituan" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26970:1" rel="noopener">Meituan (3690 HK)</a> continued its pullback in concert with the retail food sector.</li>
</ul>


China's National Team was steadily buying ETF's during and after the Third Plenum.  Southbound Connect Flows continue to be positive during July.

Smoore International Holdings (6969 HK) , Xinjiang Goldwind Science &amp; Technology (2208 HK) and Hisense Home Appliances Group Co., Ltd. H (921 HK)  benefited from positive news sentiment this week.

Chow Tai Fook Jewellery (1929 HK) and ASM Pacific Technology (522 HK) suffered on negative news, while Meituan (3690 HK) continued its pullback in concert with the retail food sector.


The Heat Is On: News Flow and Sentiment in CHINA / HONG KONG (July 26)

<ul>
<li>Smoore International, China Communication Services and GDS have Bullish technical signals in a challenging market.</li>
<li>After a 3 year run from the COVID lows, Samsonite has confirmed a Bearish technical signal.</li>
<li>Hautai Securities hits an all time low and becomes a "Catch a Falling Knife" chart.</li>
</ul>


Smoore International, China Communication Services and GDS have Bullish technical signals in a challenging market.
After a 3 year run from the COVID lows, Samsonite has confirmed a Bearish technical signal.
Hautai Securities hits an all time low and becomes a "Catch a Falling Knife" chart.


Technically Speaking: Breakouts and Breakdowns in HONG KONG (July 10)

Japan

Japan Tobacco, Inc. operates as an tobacco product company. The Company manufactures, markets and sells cigarettes and other tobacco products internationally. Japan Tobacco is also engaged in pharmaceutical and food businesses.

Price Gauge
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Japan Tobacco (2914 JP)

Japan Tobacco/Vector Group: Possible Bump-Up?

JT plans to acquire 100% of Vector Group at $15.00/share, a 29.9% premium. The offer requires over 50% acceptance, with Board support and...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Japan: Normalizing Interest Rates as Nominal GDP Surges, Ending Deflation Era

Japanese interest rates are set to normalize amid robust nominal GDP. But a rebounding JPY (at ¥125/US$ by end'24) precludes further BoJ hikes,...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Pullback Continues $ACWI; Stick With Defensives; More Countries With Improving Price and RS Trends

Pullback Continues $ACWI; Stick With Defensives. We continue to believe a 1- to 4-month pullback/consolidation is ongoing, and would look for an...

Vermilion Research

The Heat Is On: News Flow and Sentiment in CHINA / HONG KONG (July 26)

China's National Team continued buying in the ETF market. Smoore International, Xinjiang Goldwind and Hisense had positive news sentiment, while...

David Mudd

Technically Speaking: Breakouts and Breakdowns in HONG KONG (July 10)

Share prices of Smoore International, China Communication Services and GDS had Bullish technical signals while Samsonite and Huatai Securities have...

David Mudd

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Japan Tobacco/Vector Group: Possible Bump-Up?

JT plans to acquire 100% of Vector Group at $15.00/share, a 29.9% premium. The offer requires over 50% acceptance, with Board support and...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Japan: Normalizing Interest Rates as Nominal GDP Surges, Ending Deflation Era

​Japanese interest rates are set to normalize amid robust nominal GDP. But a rebounding JPY (at ¥125/US$ by end'24) precludes further BoJ hikes,...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Pullback Continues $ACWI; Stick With Defensives; More Countries With Improving Price and RS Trends

Pullback Continues $ACWI; Stick With Defensives. We continue to believe a 1- to 4-month pullback/consolidation is ongoing, and would look for an...

Vermilion Research

The Heat Is On: News Flow and Sentiment in CHINA / HONG KONG (July 26)

China's National Team continued buying in the ETF market. Smoore International, Xinjiang Goldwind and Hisense had positive news sentiment, while...

David Mudd

Technically Speaking: Breakouts and Breakdowns in HONG KONG (July 10)

Share prices of Smoore International, China Communication Services and GDS had Bullish technical signals while Samsonite and Huatai Securities have...

David Mudd

Japanese interest rates are set to normalize amid robust nominal GDP. But a rebounding JPY (at ¥125/US$ by end'24) precludes further BoJ hikes,...