Japan Economist, Japan Macro Advisors

Takuji Okubo

Japan Economist

Concise and Insightful Analysis on Japan Economy

Japan Macro Advisors

Our mission is to provide a concise and timely analysis on the Japanese economy for the benefit of global audiences. Communication, especially in foreign languages, has always been a weakness for the Japanese, which was fine when Japan's economic might attracted foreign media and various other institutions to study and report on Japan - such days are long gone. In the last two decades, we saw foreign institutions reallocating their resources from Japan to other more exciting parts of the world. As a result, when we read reporting on Japan in foreign media, we sense a subtle but noticeable decline in the depth of understanding what is actually happening in Japan.

Macroeconomics

What could the Bank of Japan do if it is to face a recession? This question is the foremost critical challenge for Mr. Kuroda in the next five years. It has already been ten years since the last global recession, and we should not be surprised to see another one around the corner. The BoJ may be able to start an exit process in a year or two, but if a recession is to happen within the next few years, we expect most of the current easing policies, such as the -0.1% short-term policy rate, to be…

What could the Bank of Japan do if it is to face a recession? This question is the foremost critical challenge for Mr. Kuroda in the next five years. It has already been ten years since the last global recession, and we should not be surprised to see another one around the corner. The BoJ may be able to start an exit process in a year or two, but if a recession is to happen within the next few years, we expect most of the current easing policies, such as the -0.1% short-term policy rate, to be…

Kuroda's Next 5 Years (Part 2): Prepare to Ease Again

On February 9, the Japanese government leaked their intention to reappoint the BoJ governor Haruhiko Kuroda when his current term expires on April 8. What are the key challenges for Mr. Kuroda in the next 5 years? On the upside, Mr. Kuroda may need to engineer an exit from the current stimulative monetary policy. On the downside, there is the seemingly impossible task of how to devise additional stimulus if the Japanese economy faces a downturn under his watch.  An exit from the current…

On February 9, the Japanese government leaked their intention to reappoint the BoJ governor Haruhiko Kuroda when his current term expires on April 8. What are the key challenges for Mr. Kuroda in the next 5 years? On the upside, Mr. Kuroda may need to engineer an exit from the current stimulative monetary policy. On the downside, there is the seemingly impossible task of how to devise additional stimulus if the Japanese economy faces a downturn under his watch.   An exit from the current…

Global Macro Strategy

Callum Henderson

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

For my first column in 2018, my thoughts on the news that Haruhiko Kuroda will be re-appointed as governor of the Bank of Japan (BoJ). In my view, while somewhat expected, this is very timely news for Japanese asset markets, which have also been caught up in the global equity market sell-off of the last week. While JGBs have largely been shielded from the volatility as a result of BoJ buying, Japanese stock market indices have been hit hard by position liquidation. News that Kuroda will continue…

For my first column in 2018, my thoughts on the news that Haruhiko Kuroda will be re-appointed as governor of the Bank of Japan (BoJ). In my view, while somewhat expected, this is very timely news for Japanese asset markets, which have also been caught up in the global equity market sell-off of the last week. While JGBs have largely been shielded from the volatility as a result of BoJ buying, Japanese stock market indices have been hit hard by position liquidation. News that Kuroda will continue…

Japan: Kuroda Stays, Focus on Fiscal Reform

The overwhelming consensus among BoJ watchers is that the current governor, Haruhiko Kuroda, will be re-appointed for the second term. We agree that it is the most believable story. Prime Minister Abe has consistently supported Mr. Kuroda and has implied that he would want him to continue. Mr. Kuroda has said nothing to indicate a possibility that he may refuse if re-appointed. Is there any chance of a surprise?   There are some reasons to think Mr. Kuroda may not be the best man for the job. The…

The overwhelming consensus among BoJ watchers is that the current governor, Haruhiko Kuroda, will be re-appointed for the second term. We agree that it is the most believable story. Prime Minister Abe has consistently supported Mr. Kuroda and has implied that he would want him to continue. Mr. Kuroda has said nothing to indicate a possibility that he may refuse if re-appointed. Is there any chance of a surprise?    There are some reasons to think Mr. Kuroda may not be the best man for the job. The…

The Next BoJ Governor, What If It Is Not Kuroda?

Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Japan's Democratic Party is joining under Koike's Hope Party banner to run against the LDP. The risks of Abe's gambit are rising quickly. It would probably take a defection of the Komeito party to really threaten the LDP (which seems highly unlikely) but Koike's momentum is something to behold. As we had previously commented, Abe's election gambit is nowhere near as safe as he might assume and while it still seems probable that he will avoid the fate of other ousted incumbents, this development…

Japan's Democratic Party is joining under Koike's Hope Party banner to run against the LDP. The risks of Abe's gambit are rising quickly. It would probably take a defection of the Komeito party to really threaten the LDP (which seems highly unlikely) but Koike's momentum is something to behold. As we had previously commented, Abe's election gambit is nowhere near as safe as he might assume and while it still seems probable that he will avoid the fate of other ousted incumbents, this development…

Japan's Democratic Party to Merge With/Run Under Koike's Hope Party in Election

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Japan Treasury (JAPAN GOVT)

Kuroda's Next 5 Years (Part 2): Prepare to Ease Again

What could the Bank of Japan do if it is to face a recession? This question is the foremost critical challenge for Mr. Kuroda in the next five...

Takuji Okubo

Kuroda's Next 5 Years

On February 9, the Japanese government leaked their intention to reappoint the BoJ governor Haruhiko Kuroda when his current term expires on April...

Takuji Okubo

Japan: Kuroda Stays, Focus on Fiscal Reform

For my first column in 2018, my thoughts on the news that Haruhiko Kuroda will be re-appointed as governor of the Bank of Japan (BoJ). In my view,...

Callum Henderson

The Next BoJ Governor, What If It Is Not Kuroda?

The overwhelming consensus among BoJ watchers is that the current governor, Haruhiko Kuroda, will be re-appointed for the second term. We agree...

Takuji Okubo

Japan's Democratic Party to Merge With/Run Under Koike's Hope Party in Election

Japan's Democratic Party is joining under Koike's Hope Party banner to run against the LDP. The risks of Abe's gambit are rising quickly. It would...

Mio Kato

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