Japan Economist, Japan Macro Advisors

Takuji Okubo

Japan Economist

Concise and Insightful Analysis on Japan Economy

Japan Macro Advisors

Our mission is to provide a concise and timely analysis on the Japanese economy for the benefit of global audiences. Communication, especially in foreign languages, has always been a weakness for the Japanese, which was fine when Japan's economic might attracted foreign media and various other institutions to study and report on Japan - such days are long gone. In the last two decades, we saw foreign institutions reallocating their resources from Japan to other more exciting parts of the world. As a result, when we read reporting on Japan in foreign media, we sense a subtle but noticeable decline in the depth of understanding what is actually happening in Japan.

Macroeconomics

After 2 years of consistent growth, the Japanese economy contracted in the 2018 January-March quarter. While it is a disappointing result, we think it was a temporary dip and the growth is likely to return in the following quarters. The news should be a wake-up call for Japanese policymakers. Japan has made a progress in reflating the economy, but they should not take continued growth for granted. The BoJ needs to maintain, or better, strengthen its stimulus and clearly communicate its intention…

After 2 years of consistent growth, the Japanese economy contracted in the 2018 January-March quarter. While it is a disappointing result, we think it was a temporary dip and the growth is likely to return in the following quarters. The news should be a wake-up call for Japanese policymakers. Japan has made a progress in reflating the economy, but they should not take continued growth for granted. The BoJ needs to maintain, or better, strengthen its stimulus and clearly communicate its intention…

A Wake-Up Call for Japanese Policymakers.

FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

FX & Rates

We see higher US and global yields developing.  Global equity market confidence may be returning, supported by conciliatory moves on US trade relationships with China, stability returning to the USD after a recent rebound, and a likely rebound in global economic reports in Q2.  Oil and broader commodity prices remain elevated and are indicative of higher demand.  They may further boost global inflation expectations.  Wage growth is rising more clearly in the major economies experiencing tightening labour markets.

We see higher US and global yields developing.  Global equity market confidence may be returning, supported by conciliatory moves on US trade relationships with China, stability returning to the USD after a recent rebound, and a likely rebound in global economic reports in Q2.  Oil and broader commodity prices remain elevated and are indicative of higher demand.  They may further boost global inflation expectations.  Wage growth is rising more clearly in the major economies experiencing tightening labour markets.

Wages in Japan seem to be finally on the rise. According to the preliminary wage report for March 2018, regular wages in Japan rose by 1.3% year on year (YoY), accelerating from 0.6% YoY in February and reaching the highest rate of increase since July 1997. There have been a few false dawns for a wage inflation in Japan, but the current rise may be a real one, in our view.  At 1.3% year on year, the wage inflation in March 2018 was the highest in 21 years<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/051/758/original/jma_chart_png_400_0%20%281%29.png?1525833952" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="51758"></figure>Despite the relentless tightening in the…

Wages in Japan seem to be finally on the rise. According to the preliminary wage report for March 2018, regular wages in Japan rose by 1.3% year on year (YoY), accelerating from 0.6% YoY in February and reaching the highest rate of increase since July 1997. There have been a few false dawns for a wage inflation in Japan, but the current rise may be a real one, in our view.  At 1.3% year on year, the wage inflation in March 2018 was the highest in 21 yearsDespite the relentless tightening in the…

BoJ Governor Kuroda is starting to resemble these government officials being hauled into the parliament to give explanations they themselves do not believe in and prove counter-factual. On April 27, the BoJ policy board concluded its first policy meeting in Kuroda's second term. BoJ kept its policy unchanged but made an important change to its policy outlook. Since 2013, the BoJ under Governor Kuroda kept an explicit mention of when it expects its 2% inflation target to be achieved. In the April…

BoJ Governor Kuroda is starting to resemble these government officials being hauled into the parliament to give explanations they themselves do not believe in and prove counter-factual. On April 27, the BoJ policy board concluded its first policy meeting in Kuroda's second term. BoJ kept its policy unchanged but made an important change to its policy outlook. Since 2013, the BoJ under Governor Kuroda kept an explicit mention of when it expects its 2% inflation target to be achieved. In the April…

For years, ROE among Japanese companies languished in low single digits. No more. The average ROE rose to 9.1% in the fiscal year 2017, clearing the 8% "minimum" target set by the influential government commission Ito Report published in 2014. The Japanese companies managed to raise their ROE not through financial leverage but through higher ROA and fatter profit margin. We find it remarkable that non-manufacturers, long considered an inefficient part of Japan Inc. are enjoying an unprecedented level of ROA in recent years. In our view, the rise in ROE is combined results of the cyclical upturn in the economy and the improvements in the corporate governance in Japan.

For years, ROE among Japanese companies languished in low single digits. No more. The average ROE rose to 9.1% in the fiscal year 2017, clearing the 8% "minimum" target set by the influential government commission Ito Report published in 2014. The Japanese companies managed to raise their ROE not through financial leverage but through higher ROA and fatter profit margin. We find it remarkable that non-manufacturers, long considered an inefficient part of Japan Inc. are enjoying an unprecedented level of ROA in recent years. In our view, the rise in ROE is combined results of the cyclical upturn in the economy and the improvements in the corporate governance in Japan. 

Japan Entering a New Era of Capital Efficiency

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Japan Treasury (JAPAN GOVT)

A Wake-Up Call for Japanese Policymakers.

After 2 years of consistent growth, the Japanese economy contracted in the 2018 January-March quarter. While it is a disappointing result, we think...

Takuji Okubo

Global Bond Yields Set to Rise Further

We see higher US and global yields developing. Global equity market confidence may be returning, supported by conciliatory moves on US trade...

Greg Gibbs

Japan: Wages Finally on the Rise

Wages in Japan seem to be finally on the rise. According to the preliminary wage report for March 2018, regular wages in Japan rose by 1.3% year on...

Takuji Okubo

Governor Kuroda, Please Stop Lying

BoJ Governor Kuroda is starting to resemble these government officials being hauled into the parliament to give explanations they themselves do not...

Takuji Okubo

Japan Entering a New Era of Capital Efficiency

For years, ROE among Japanese companies languished in low single digits. No more. The average ROE rose to 9.1% in the fiscal year 2017, clearing...

Takuji Okubo

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