IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/regis-healthcare-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2086:1" rel="noopener">Regis Healthcare (REG AU)</a> is one of the largest providers of residential aged care in Australia. Regis revealed a non-binding indicative offer from Washington H. Soul Pattinson and Company (WHSP) and Bryan Dorman, Regis' co-founder. The indicative offer of A$1.85 per share is a 25% premium to the last close price. The offer includes both cash and scrip alternatives, the scrip being shares in a newly incorporated acquisition entity.</p><p>The aged care industry has been hard hit by ongoing funding challenges, the impact of the extended Royal Commission and the COVID-19 pandemic. The depressed share price of three main listed players Regis, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/estia-health-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:77:1" rel="noopener">Estia Health (EHE AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japara-healthcare-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14760:1" rel="noopener">Japara Healthcare (JHC AU)</a> has resulted in rumours about potential suitors.</p><div class="content-highlight"><p>We think that indicative offer is opportunistic and is particularly unattractive for long-term shareholders. However, a rival bidder emerging is low due to Bryan Dorman’s presence in the consortium. Nevertheless, this non-binding indicative offer lays a marker for the intrinsic value of the shares and gives the Board an opportunity to negotiate a bump. </p></div>

Regis Healthcare (REG AU) is one of the largest providers of residential aged care in Australia. Regis revealed a non-binding indicative offer from Washington H. Soul Pattinson and Company (WHSP) and Bryan Dorman, Regis' co-founder. The indicative offer of A$1.85 per share is a 25% premium to the last close price. The offer includes both cash and scrip alternatives, the scrip being shares in a newly incorporated acquisition entity.The aged care industry has been hard hit by ongoing funding challenges, the impact of the extended Royal Commission and the COVID-19 pandemic. The depressed share price of three main listed players Regis, Estia Health (EHE AU) and Japara Healthcare (JHC AU) has resulted in rumours about potential suitors.We think that indicative offer is opportunistic and is particularly unattractive for long-term shareholders. However, a rival bidder emerging is low due to Bryan Dorman’s presence in the consortium. Nevertheless, this non-binding indicative offer lays a marker for the intrinsic value of the shares and gives the Board an opportunity to negotiate a bump. 

Regis Healthcare Gets a Non-Binding Indicative Offer

Founder Evidente. Top rated quantitative analyst, Evidente

Sam Ferraro

Founder Evidente. Top rated quantitative analyst

Evidente

Evidente is an independent financial education firm that delivers innovative financial advice to wholesale investors, including active long only funds, hedge funds, pension funds, and sovereign wealth funds, in Australia and globally.  Drawing on academic research in asset pricing, behavioural finance and portfolio construction, Evidente provides wholesale investors with commercial solutions to stock selection and asset allocation decisions across equities and other asset classes.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Financial forensics remains an indispensable part of the short-seller's tool-kit. In this report, Evidente updates and expands its analysis of financial forensics, now that most ASX listed companies have reported their interim financial results <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/financial-forensic-part-i" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:6669">Financial Forensic - Part I</a></li><li>Since the launch of <em>Financial Forensics</em> in October 2016, the twenty stocks identified by Evidente as having the highest non-cash component of earnings have delivered a mean accumulated return -6.6%, well below the ASX200 (+9.6%).</li><li>Evidente has compiled an updated list of the twenty stocks which have the highest non-cash component of earnings, and in many cases have experienced a marked deterioration in earnings quality from the previous interim reporting season, including Blackmores, Webjet and Myer Holdings.  Some of these are growth stocks, trading on high multiples and with little margin for disappointing faithful investors.</li></ul>

Financial forensics remains an indispensable part of the short-seller's tool-kit. In this report, Evidente updates and expands its analysis of financial forensics, now that most ASX listed companies have reported their interim financial results Financial Forensic - Part ISince the launch of Financial Forensics in October 2016, the twenty stocks identified by Evidente as having the highest non-cash component of earnings have delivered a mean accumulated return -6.6%, well below the ASX200 (+9.6%).Evidente has compiled an updated list of the twenty stocks which have the highest non-cash component of earnings, and in many cases have experienced a marked deterioration in earnings quality from the previous interim reporting season, including Blackmores, Webjet and Myer Holdings.  Some of these are growth stocks, trading on high multiples and with little margin for disappointing faithful investors.

Financial Forensics - The Short-Seller's Indispensable Tool-Kit

iShares MSCI Australia / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>In May, I published a report citing recent journal literature that sought to decompose Buffett&rsquo;s Alpha.&nbsp; The authors attribute Warren Buffett&rsquo;s long track record of strong returns not to luck but to reward for leveraged exposure to safe or low beta, quality stocks that are cheap.&nbsp; I applied these principles to the ASX200 stocks and constructed long and short portfolios of around ten stocks each.</li><li>Given the passage of over six months since the initial&nbsp;report was published, this note is designed to report on the performance of the two portfolios as well as expand and update Mr Buffett&rsquo;s investment methodology as applied to the ASX200 stocks.&nbsp;&nbsp;The strategy has been impressive,&nbsp;with the long portfolio yielding an equal weighted return of around 3%, well above the ASX200 (-10%) and short portfolio (-20%).&nbsp; Thus the strategy has produced a long-short return of +23%.</li><li>Evidente has made a number of enhancements to the methodology, including the addition of a market sentiment measure to assist with market timing.&nbsp; The updated&nbsp;long portfolio represents a diverse mix of sectors while energy stocks&nbsp;are still&nbsp;dominate&nbsp;the short portfolio.&nbsp; Thus the key macro risk for the shorts&nbsp;is&nbsp;the prospect of renewed strength in&nbsp;global oil prices in 2016.&nbsp;&nbsp;</li></ul>

In May, I published a report citing recent journal literature that sought to decompose Buffett&rsquo;s Alpha.&nbsp; The authors attribute Warren Buffett&rsquo;s long track record of strong returns not to luck but to reward for leveraged exposure to safe or low beta, quality stocks that are cheap.&nbsp; I applied these principles to the ASX200 stocks and constructed long and short portfolios of around ten stocks each.Given the passage of over six months since the initial&nbsp;report was published, this note is designed to report on the performance of the two portfolios as well as expand and update Mr Buffett&rsquo;s investment methodology as applied to the ASX200 stocks.&nbsp;&nbsp;The strategy has been impressive,&nbsp;with the long portfolio yielding an equal weighted return of around 3%, well above the ASX200 (-10%) and short portfolio (-20%).&nbsp; Thus the strategy has produced a long-short return of +23%.Evidente has made a number of enhancements to the methodology, including the addition of a market sentiment measure to assist with market timing.&nbsp; The updated&nbsp;long portfolio represents a diverse mix of sectors while energy stocks&nbsp;are still&nbsp;dominate&nbsp;the short portfolio.&nbsp; Thus the key macro risk for the shorts&nbsp;is&nbsp;the prospect of renewed strength in&nbsp;global oil prices in 2016.&nbsp;&nbsp;

Lifting The Lid On Warren Buffett's Investment Secrets (Update)

Australia

Japara Healthcare Limited, is a provider of aged care and retirement living services in Australia.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Japara Healthcare (JHC AU)

Regis Healthcare Gets a Non-Binding Indicative Offer

The indicative offer of A$1.85 per share is a 25% premium to the last close price. We think that non-binding offer is opportunistic and is...

Arun George

Financial Forensics - The Short-Seller's Indispensable Tool-Kit

Financial forensics remains an indispensable part of the short-seller's tool-kit. In this report, Evidente updates and expands its analysis of...

Sam Ferraro

Lifting The Lid On Warren Buffett's Investment Secrets (Update)

In May, I published a report citing recent journal literature that sought to decompose Buffett’s Alpha. The authors attribute Warren Buffett’s...

Sam Ferraro

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)