Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Trung Nguyen

Senior Credit Analyst

High Yield Experts

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

Credit

<ul>
<li>Treasuries rose yesterday, with the UST curve bull-steepening after US President Donald Trump said he would postpone strikes against Iran’s energy infrastructure.</li>
<li>This was despite Tehran’s denial that talks had taken place.</li>
<li>Yields on the 2Y and 10Y USTs fell 5 bps and 4 bps to 3.85% and 4.34%, respectively. </li>
</ul>


Treasuries rose yesterday, with the UST curve bull-steepening after US President Donald Trump said he would postpone strikes against Iran’s energy infrastructure.
This was despite Tehran’s denial that talks had taken place.
Yields on the 2Y and 10Y USTs fell 5 bps and 4 bps to 3.85% and 4.34%, respectively. 


<ul>
<li>UST yields jumped 7-11 bps yesterday, mainly driven by inflation concerns, amid the surge in oil prices and higher than expected prices paid component in the ISM manufacturing index.</li>
<li>This largely wiped out the yield declines from haven-driven demand last Thursday and Friday.</li>
<li>The UST curve bear flattened, with the yields on the 2Y and 10Y UST jumping 10 bps to 3.48% and 4.04%, respectively. </li>
</ul>


UST yields jumped 7-11 bps yesterday, mainly driven by inflation concerns, amid the surge in oil prices and higher than expected prices paid component in the ISM manufacturing index.
This largely wiped out the yield declines from haven-driven demand last Thursday and Friday.
The UST curve bear flattened, with the yields on the 2Y and 10Y UST jumping 10 bps to 3.48% and 4.04%, respectively. 


Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The review period for the LQ45 Index July rebalance ended 30 June. The changes should be announced the last week of July, becoming effective after the close on 31 July.</li>
<li>Based on the index methodology, there could be up to 5 changes at the rebalance. Plus there will be capping changes for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-rakyat-indonesia-persero" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:484:1" rel="noopener">Bank Rakyat (BBRI)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-central-asia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:440:1" rel="noopener">Bank Central Asia (BBCA)</a>.</li>
<li>For a change, the impact on the potential inclusions will be higher since they will join the index with higher weights compared to the potential deletions.</li>
</ul>


The review period for the LQ45 Index July rebalance ended 30 June. The changes should be announced the last week of July, becoming effective after the close on 31 July.
Based on the index methodology, there could be up to 5 changes at the rebalance. Plus there will be capping changes for Bank Rakyat (BBRI) and Bank Central Asia (BBCA).
For a change, the impact on the potential inclusions will be higher since they will join the index with higher weights compared to the potential deletions.


LQ45 Index Rebalance Preview (July): Identifying Potential Index Changes

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), BRI Danareksa Research

BRI Danareksa Research

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

As a one-stop financial solution with the vision to be the most valuable securities house, BRI Danareksa Sekuritas (BRIDS) has maintained an excellent track record and extensive experience in the capital market as an underwriter, broker, and financial advisor for individual, institutional, foreign and domestic, private and government clients. Established in 1992, PT Danareksa Sekuritas is a securities company that performs activities as a securities broker, underwriter, or arranger and financial advisor.

Equity Bottom-Up

Japfa Comfeed Indonesia / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>3Q25 net profit rose by a strong +111% qoq/ +91% yoy, bringing 9M25 NP to Rp2.4tr (+15% yoy), achieving 75%/76% of our/ consensus FY25F.</li><li>Revenue and margins improved across all segments, led by strong performance in processed food and DOC businesses.</li><li>Maintain Buy with an unchanged TP of Rp2,800 as we keep our FY25F forecast unchanged given in line 9M25 results.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

3Q25 net profit rose by a strong +111% qoq/ +91% yoy, bringing 9M25 NP to Rp2.4tr (+15% yoy), achieving 75%/76% of our/ consensus FY25F.Revenue and margins improved across all segments, led by strong performance in processed food and DOC businesses.Maintain Buy with an unchanged TP of Rp2,800 as we keep our FY25F forecast unchanged given in line 9M25 results.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Japfa Comfeed Indonesia (JPFA.IJ) Robust Earnings Driven by Higher Revenues...

<ul><li>We expect JPFA to post a stronger 3Q25 net profit of Rp940–1,115bn (+69–101% qoq), supported by improved profitability LB segments.</li><li>Margin expansion should continue on lower SBM costs and firm LB prices, leading to a sustained earnings improvement into FY25F.</li><li>We raised our FY25/26F earnings forecasts by 29%/33% and lifted our TP to Rp2,800; maintain BUY rating.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We expect JPFA to post a stronger 3Q25 net profit of Rp940–1,115bn (+69–101% qoq), supported by improved profitability LB segments.Margin expansion should continue on lower SBM costs and firm LB prices, leading to a sustained earnings improvement into FY25F.We raised our FY25/26F earnings forecasts by 29%/33% and lifted our TP to Rp2,800; maintain BUY rating.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Japfa Comfeed Indonesia (JPFA.IJ) Earnings Momentum Strengthens; Margin Outlook Remains Supportive

Indonesia

PT Japfa Comfeed Indonesia Tbk manufactures animal feed, breeds and processes chickens, and operates aquaculture farms.  The Company trades its products domestically and internationally.

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Japfa Comfeed Indonesia (JPFA IJ)

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Asia

Treasuries rose yesterday, with the UST curve bull-steepening after US President Donald Trump said he would postpone strikes against Iran’s energy...

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Asia

UST yields jumped 7-11 bps yesterday, mainly driven by inflation concerns, amid the surge in oil prices and higher than expected prices paid...

Lucror Analytics

LQ45 Index Rebalance Preview (July): Identifying Potential Index Changes

We have identified 5 potential changes for the LQ45 Index in July. There will also be capping flows for BBCA and BBRI. Historically, adds and...

Brian Freitas