Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sbi-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10928:1" rel="noopener">SBI Holdings (8473 JP)</a>'s subsidiary has reportedly filed its application to become a Bank Holding Company, the definition being a company holding a 50% or greater stake in a bank.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jardine-cycle-carriage-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:347:1" rel="noopener">Jardine Cycle &amp; Carriage (JCNC SP)</a> is expensive here - relative to historical values -  and from an implied stub perspective, has only briefly been exceeded twice in the last decade.</li>
<li>Expect <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keppel-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12:1" rel="noopener">Keppel (KEP SP)</a> to re-rate after the spinoff. The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sembcorp-marine-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11:1" rel="noopener">Sembcorp Marine (SMM SP)</a> distribution supported by both better profitability and much larger order books can be managed reasonably cleanly. </li>
</ul>



SBI Holdings (8473 JP)'s subsidiary has reportedly filed its application to become a Bank Holding Company, the definition being a company holding a 50% or greater stake in a bank.

Jardine Cycle &amp; Carriage (JCNC SP) is expensive here - relative to historical values -  and from an implied stub perspective, has only briefly been exceeded twice in the last decade.
Expect Keppel (KEP SP) to re-rate after the spinoff. The Sembcorp Marine (SMM SP) distribution supported by both better profitability and much larger order books can be managed reasonably cleanly. 


Last Week in Event SPACE: Shinsei Bank, Jardine Cycle, Keppel Corp, Eagle Cement, Hitachi Transport

<ul>
<li>Indonesian auto dealership play <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tunas-ridean-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3780:1" rel="noopener">Tunas Ridean (TURI IJ)</a>'s buyback - and subsequent delisting - has been extended to the 12 October. </li>
<li>TURI shareholders who do not tender - or sell in the market - will be left holding listed scrip.</li>
<li>Currently trading a gross spread of ~3% to terms, net of the sales tax levy.</li>
</ul>


Indonesian auto dealership play Tunas Ridean (TURI IJ)'s buyback - and subsequent delisting - has been extended to the 12 October. 
TURI shareholders who do not tender - or sell in the market - will be left holding listed scrip.
Currently trading a gross spread of ~3% to terms, net of the sales tax levy.


Tunas Ridean: Sell Or Tender, But Don't Do Nothing

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jardine-cycle-carriage-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:347:1" rel="noopener">Jardine Cycle &amp; Carriage (JCNC SP)</a> is currently trading at a ~9% discount to NAV, around the narrowest since the post-Covid nadir in April 2020.</li>
<li>JCNC's recent results highlighted a marked improvement in its unlisted Vietnamese automotive ops. </li>
<li>Weakness in the Indonesian rupiah has taken some of the shine off <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/astra-international-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:46:1" rel="noopener">Astra International (ASII IJ)</a>'s strong sales growth. </li>
</ul>



Jardine Cycle &amp; Carriage (JCNC SP) is currently trading at a ~9% discount to NAV, around the narrowest since the post-Covid nadir in April 2020.
JCNC's recent results highlighted a marked improvement in its unlisted Vietnamese automotive ops. 
Weakness in the Indonesian rupiah has taken some of the shine off Astra International (ASII IJ)'s strong sales growth. 


SGX Market Strategist, Equity & Fixed Income, Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

Geoff Howie

SGX Market Strategist, Equity & Fixed Income

Asia’s leading multi-asset exchange

Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

Singapore Exchange is Asia’s leading and trusted market infrastructure, facilitating the exchange of capital and ideas to create value for people, businesses and economies. As a multi-asset exchange operating equity, fixed income and derivatives markets to the highest regulatory standards, SGX is a vertically integrated business that provides listing, trading, clearing, settlement, depository and data services.

With about 40% of listed companies and over 80% of listed bonds originating outside of Singapore as well as established linkages across the region and in Europe, SGX is Asia’s most international and connected exchange. Offering a full suite of derivatives products across Asian equity indices, commodities and currencies, SGX is the world’s most liquid international market for the benchmark equity indices of China, India, Japan and ASEAN.

As Asia’s pioneering central counterparty, SGX is globally recognised for its risk management and clearing capabilities, and was one of the first globally to adopt the Principles for Financial Market Infrastructure.

Headquartered in AAA-rated Singapore, SGX has over 800 employees including offices in Beijing, Chicago, Hong Kong, London, New York, Mumbai, San Francisco, Shanghai and Tokyo.

Equity Bottom-Up

Jardine Cycle & Carriage / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Singapore’s five most traded consumer cyclical stocks include Genting Singapore, Jardine Cycle & Carriage, NIO Inc, The Hour Glass and MM2 Asia.</li><li>These five consumer cyclical stocks have seen S$279 million in combined YTD net fund flow, with Jardine Cycle & Carriage seeing the highest inflow.</li><li>Globally, the market value of consumer cyclical stocks is greater than consumer non-cyclical stocks, while also maintaining higher historical volatility.</li></ul>

Singapore’s five most traded consumer cyclical stocks include Genting Singapore, Jardine Cycle & Carriage, NIO Inc, The Hour Glass and MM2 Asia.These five consumer cyclical stocks have seen S$279 million in combined YTD net fund flow, with Jardine Cycle & Carriage seeing the highest inflow.Globally, the market value of consumer cyclical stocks is greater than consumer non-cyclical stocks, while also maintaining higher historical volatility.

10 Consumer Plays that Averaged 11% YTD Gains on S$377M Net Fund Inflows

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jardine-matheson-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19718:1" rel="noopener">Jardine Matheson Holdings (JM SP)</a> (JMH) has shed ~8% since MSCI said it was cutting the conglomerate's weighing in two indices.</li>
<li>The reweighting follows the cancellation of the 59% shareholding in JMH held by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jardine-strategic-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15081:1" rel="noopener">Jardine Strategic Holdings (JS SP)</a>, which was privatised last year.</li>
<li>I see the discount to NAV at ~40%, right at the 12-month -2 STD level. JMH bought back ~149mn shares in the 1Q22, paying ~US$59/share, 17% above the current price.</li>
</ul>



Jardine Matheson Holdings (JM SP) (JMH) has shed ~8% since MSCI said it was cutting the conglomerate's weighing in two indices.
The reweighting follows the cancellation of the 59% shareholding in JMH held by Jardine Strategic Holdings (JS SP), which was privatised last year.
I see the discount to NAV at ~40%, right at the 12-month -2 STD level. JMH bought back ~149mn shares in the 1Q22, paying ~US$59/share, 17% above the current price.


Singapore

Jardine Cycle & Carriage Limited operates as an investment holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, invests in automotive, consumer finance, utilities and infrastructure, heavy equipment and mining, property, agribusiness, cement, and consumer products businesses. Jardine Cycle & Carriage serves customers in South East Asia.

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Jardine Cycle & Carriage (JCNC SP)

Last Week in Event SPACE: Shinsei Bank, Jardine Cycle, Keppel Corp, Eagle Cement, Hitachi Transport

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Tunas Ridean: Sell Or Tender, But Don't Do Nothing

This buyback for Tunas Ridean is done. It will close on the 12 October. If you are holding shares - sell or tender - but don't do nothing.

David Blennerhassett

JCNC Is Overstretched Vs. Astra

If you had set up the stub, I would be unwinding here. I'd look to reverse the stub as and when the current momentum reverses.

David Blennerhassett

10 Consumer Plays that Averaged 11% YTD Gains on S$377M Net Fund Inflows

Singapore’s five most traded consumer cyclical stocks include Genting Singapore, Jardine Cycle & Carriage, NIO Inc, The Hour Glass and MM2...

Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

Jardine Matheson (JM SP): MSCI Blues

Given JMH's strong underlying operating performance, the 40% discount to NAV - one in which there are discounts of discounts, JMH is attractive...

David Blennerhassett

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