Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>For November 2025, eight new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma (by the Quiddity team) with an overall announced deal size of ~US$10bn.</li>
<li>The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in November was ~31%, with a year-to-date average of ~48%.</li>
<li>The average premiums for transactions in 2024 (129 transactions), 2023 (117), 2022 (106), 2021 (165), 2020 (158), and 2019 (145 ) were 43%, 39%, 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31%.</li>
</ul>


For November 2025, eight new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma (by the Quiddity team) with an overall announced deal size of ~US$10bn.
The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in November was ~31%, with a year-to-date average of ~48%.
The average premiums for transactions in 2024 (129 transactions), 2023 (117), 2022 (106), 2021 (165), 2020 (158), and 2019 (145 ) were 43%, 39%, 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31%.


(Mostly) Asia M&A, Nov 2025 Wrap: Qube, Forum Engineering, National Storage REIT, Star Micronics

<ul>
<li>Given the size of Mandi - relative to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/3sbio-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:459:1" rel="noopener">3SBio Inc (1530 HK)</a> - higher market multiples for its in-specie spin-off may have a limited impact on the overall valuation.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/contemporary-amperex-technology-catl-co-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45179:1" rel="noopener">CATL (3750 HK)</a>  raised around US$5.2bn in its H-share listing in May 2025. The last day for their lockup was the 19th November 2025.</li>
<li>While <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/grindr-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:37106:1" rel="noopener">Grindr (GRND US)</a> Special Committee considers the MBO proposal, chairman James Lu has unusually opted to step down. And sell shares below the NBIO price. </li>
</ul>


Given the size of Mandi - relative to 3SBio Inc (1530 HK) - higher market multiples for its in-specie spin-off may have a limited impact on the overall valuation.

CATL (3750 HK)  raised around US$5.2bn in its H-share listing in May 2025. The last day for their lockup was the 19th November 2025.
While Grindr (GRND US) Special Committee considers the MBO proposal, chairman James Lu has unusually opted to step down. And sell shares below the NBIO price. 


Last Week In Event SPACE: 3SBio/Mandi, CATL, Grindr, Mandarin Oriental

<ul>
<li>I tally 34 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - arb transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Those arbs metrics and upcoming events are detailed below.</li>
<li>One new deal was discussed on Smartkarma this week: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/genes-tech-group-holdings-company-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:46022:1" rel="noopener">Genes Tech Group Holdings (8257 HK)</a>. Technically, the Offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jinke-smart-services-group-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29214:1" rel="noopener">Jinke Smart Services (9666 HK)</a> is new.</li>
<li>Key updates/news also took place on: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rpmglobal-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16492:1" rel="noopener">RPMGlobal (RUL AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/insignia-financial-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12349:1" rel="noopener">Insignia Financial (IFL AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/webjet-group-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45177:1" rel="noopener">Webjet (WJL AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mayne-pharma-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:757:1" rel="noopener">Mayne Pharma (MYX AU)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/digital-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1697:1" rel="noopener">Digital Holdings (2389 JP)</a>. </li>
</ul>


I tally 34 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - arb transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Those arbs metrics and upcoming events are detailed below.
One new deal was discussed on Smartkarma this week: Genes Tech Group Holdings (8257 HK). Technically, the Offer for Jinke Smart Services (9666 HK) is new.
Key updates/news also took place on: RPMGlobal (RUL AU), Insignia Financial (IFL AU), Webjet (WJL AU), Mayne Pharma (MYX AU), and Digital Holdings (2389 JP). 


Asia-Pac M&A Weekly Wrap: RPMGlobal, Insignia, Webjet, Mayne Pharma, Jinke Smart, Digital Holdings

Mandarin Oriental International / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Concurrent with the sale of 13 floors of OCB to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd-d7b798e2-202d-4e01-9a1e-799e2ae8f0c7" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jardine-matheson-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19718:1" rel="noopener">Jardine Matheson (JM SP)</a> is seeking to privatise <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mandarin-oriental-international-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4773:1" rel="noopener">Mandarin Oriental (MAND SP)</a> at US$3.35/share by way of a Scheme.</li>
<li>The Offer Price is a 52.3% premium to undisturbed, and a 53.7% premium to NAV. Clean deal. And MAND has consistently traded tight to terms. </li>
<li>The <a href="https://links.sgx.com/FileOpen/Shareholder%20Circular.ashx?App=Announcement&amp;FileID=867134" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Scheme Doc is now out</a> for MAND. The Court Meeting is the 8th December. As with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jardine-strategic-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15081:1" rel="noopener">Jardine Strategic Holdings (JS SP)</a>'s 2021 takeover, there is no independent assessment report. </li>
</ul>


Concurrent with the sale of 13 floors of OCB to Alibaba, Jardine Matheson (JM SP) is seeking to privatise Mandarin Oriental (MAND SP) at US$3.35/share by way of a Scheme.
The Offer Price is a 52.3% premium to undisturbed, and a 53.7% premium to NAV. Clean deal. And MAND has consistently traded tight to terms. 
The Scheme Doc is now out for MAND. The Court Meeting is the 8th December. As with Jardine Strategic Holdings (JS SP)'s 2021 takeover, there is no independent assessment report. 


Mandarin Oriental (MAND SP): 8th Dec Vote On Matheson's Offer

<ul>
<li>It's fair bet <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jardine-matheson-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19718:1" rel="noopener">Matheson (JM SP)</a> opted for a Scheme for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mandarin-oriental-international-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4773:1" rel="noopener">Mandarin Oriental (MAND SP)</a> to avoid a repeat of the appraisal rights afforded <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jardine-strategic-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15081:1" rel="noopener">Jardine Strategic (JS SP)</a>'s dissentient shareholders.</li>
<li>On <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/light-wonder-inc-7e7d040f-e811-4fb9-9710-796a39af299e" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40171:1" rel="noopener">Light &amp; Wonder (LNW AU/LNW US)</a> giving up its US listing, short the Aussie line at A$124+ or the US line at US$79+. Expect more pressure early this week. </li>
<li>Qatar Airways books a loss on its eight-yar investment as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cathay-pacific-airways-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:243:1" rel="noopener">Cathay Pacific Airways (293 HK)</a> moves to take out its 9.57% stake. </li>
</ul>


It's fair bet Matheson (JM SP) opted for a Scheme for Mandarin Oriental (MAND SP) to avoid a repeat of the appraisal rights afforded Jardine Strategic (JS SP)'s dissentient shareholders.
On Light &amp; Wonder (LNW AU/LNW US) giving up its US listing, short the Aussie line at A$124+ or the US line at US$79+. Expect more pressure early this week. 
Qatar Airways books a loss on its eight-yar investment as Cathay Pacific Airways (293 HK) moves to take out its 9.57% stake. 


Last Week In Event SPACE: Mandarin Oriental, Light & Wonder, Cathay Pacific, DeNA

Singapore

Jardine Strategic Holdings Limited is a holding company with principal interests in Jardine Matheson, Dairy Farm, Hongkong Land, Mandarin Oriental, and Cycle and Carriage.  The Company, through its subsidiaries, operates auto distribution, food and retailing, property investment, property development, and hotel operations.

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Jardine Strategic Holdings (JS SP)

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