Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Trading Economics expects better growth at +0.4% QoQ and 0% YoY (vs. 4Q23 at -0.3% QoQ and -0.2% YoY) and forecasts economic growth in 2Q-4Q24E at +0.4% QoQ, +0.3% QoQ and +0.4% QoQ, respectively.</li><li>The consensus expects the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index to drop to 76 (vs. April at 77.2) and continue to decline to 75.0 at the end of 2Q24E.</li><li>We recommend stocks with positive news stories: TQM, TKN and CPN.</li></ul>

Trading Economics expects better growth at +0.4% QoQ and 0% YoY (vs. 4Q23 at -0.3% QoQ and -0.2% YoY) and forecasts economic growth in 2Q-4Q24E at +0.4% QoQ, +0.3% QoQ and +0.4% QoQ, respectively.The consensus expects the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index to drop to 76 (vs. April at 77.2) and continue to decline to 75.0 at the end of 2Q24E.We recommend stocks with positive news stories: TQM, TKN and CPN.

University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index & UK's 1Q24 GDP

<ul><li>The consensus anticipates a modest improvement in the profits of industrial companies, with growth forecast at -8% YoY, compared to September's -9% YoY, to CNY5411.99bn.</li><li>Keep an eye on the earnings guidance of DDD, STEC, SENA, KEX, SENX, RATCH, AMATAV, SCCC, PRTR, S, FTI, PDJ, PLUS/Digital Online, JMART, PTTEP, TLI, GPSC, CKP and WHAUP, which is expected to affect the prices of the related stocks.</li><li>The consensus forecasts a growth rate of -4% MoM, reaching 0.7mn units, which is less favorable than the figure recorded in September.</li></ul>

The consensus anticipates a modest improvement in the profits of industrial companies, with growth forecast at -8% YoY, compared to September's -9% YoY, to CNY5411.99bn.Keep an eye on the earnings guidance of DDD, STEC, SENA, KEX, SENX, RATCH, AMATAV, SCCC, PRTR, S, FTI, PDJ, PLUS/Digital Online, JMART, PTTEP, TLI, GPSC, CKP and WHAUP, which is expected to affect the prices of the related stocks.The consensus forecasts a growth rate of -4% MoM, reaching 0.7mn units, which is less favorable than the figure recorded in September.

<ul><li>Technically, the SET Index is expected to rebound further, with the resistance at 1,490/1,495 points and the support at 1,470/1,465 points, after the occurrence of a reversal sign yesterday for the first time in nine days (a candlestick formed in the bullish engulfing pattern).</li><li>The key factors today include the rebalancing of the SET50/SET100 Indexes in 2H23, which will have an impact on the closing prices for the first day.</li><li>We recommend stocks with positive factors, i.e., TLI and WHA (newly added to the SET50 Index), as well as ERW, as the number of tourist arrivals from the beginning of the year until June 26 marked at 12.4mn (vs. the 2023E target of 28mn).</li></ul>

Technically, the SET Index is expected to rebound further, with the resistance at 1,490/1,495 points and the support at 1,470/1,465 points, after the occurrence of a reversal sign yesterday for the first time in nine days (a candlestick formed in the bullish engulfing pattern).The key factors today include the rebalancing of the SET50/SET100 Indexes in 2H23, which will have an impact on the closing prices for the first day.We recommend stocks with positive factors, i.e., TLI and WHA (newly added to the SET50 Index), as well as ERW, as the number of tourist arrivals from the beginning of the year until June 26 marked at 12.4mn (vs. the 2023E target of 28mn).

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There were a couple of ad hoc rebalances in Korea last week for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-stock-exchange-kospi-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26021:1" rel="noopener">Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 (KOSPI2 INDEX EQUITY)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kosdaq-150-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31077:1" rel="noopener">KOSDAQ 150 Index (KOSDQ150 INDEX EQUITY)</a>. </li>
<li>Coming Friday will mark the end of the review period for the next rebalance of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">HSI</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">HSCEI</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-tech-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31367:1" rel="noopener">HSTECH</a>, HSCI, LQ45, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/philippines-stock-exchange-psei-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22912:1" rel="noopener">PCOMP</a> as well as the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/stock-exchange-of-thailand-set-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31493:1" rel="noopener">SET50</a> June implementation.</li>
<li>With Japan indices moving higher, the largest inflows went into ETFs tracking the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a> and other local/global indices.</li>
</ul>


There were a couple of ad hoc rebalances in Korea last week for the Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 (KOSPI2 INDEX EQUITY) and KOSDAQ 150 Index (KOSDQ150 INDEX EQUITY). 
Coming Friday will mark the end of the review period for the next rebalance of the HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH, HSCI, LQ45, PCOMP as well as the SET50 June implementation.
With Japan indices moving higher, the largest inflows went into ETFs tracking the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) and other local/global indices.


Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: NKY, KOSPI2, New Deal, SET50, MOG Digitech, Syngenta IPO

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/thai-life-insurance" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34915:1" rel="noopener">Thai Life Insurance (TLI TB)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wha-corp-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:104:1" rel="noopener">WHA Corp Pcl (WHA TB)</a> will replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jaymart-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12053:1" rel="noopener">Jaymart PCL (JMART TB)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jmt-network-services-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8581:1" rel="noopener">JMT Network Services (JMT TB)</a> in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/stock-exchange-of-thailand-set-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31493:1" rel="noopener">SET 50 Index</a> in June.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 1.7% and will result in a one-way trade of THB 1,533m. The Financials and Real Estate sectors gain at the expense of the other sectors.</li>
<li>The largest impact of passive buying will be on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/thai-life-insurance" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34915:1" rel="noopener">Thai Life Insurance (TLI TB)</a> in terms of days of ADV to buy and in terms of free float to buy. </li>
</ul>



Thai Life Insurance (TLI TB) and WHA Corp Pcl (WHA TB) will replace Jaymart PCL (JMART TB) and JMT Network Services (JMT TB) in the SET 50 Index in June.
Estimated one-way turnover is 1.7% and will result in a one-way trade of THB 1,533m. The Financials and Real Estate sectors gain at the expense of the other sectors.
The largest impact of passive buying will be on Thai Life Insurance (TLI TB) in terms of days of ADV to buy and in terms of free float to buy. 


SET50 Index Rebalance: TLI, WHA to Replace JMART, JMT

Thailand

Jaymart Group Holdings Public Company Limited operates as a holding company, investing in other businesses. Its core business involves the retail and wholesale distribution of mobile phones, gadgets, IT products, and related items from major brands and telecommunication operators. Additionally, the company engages in financial services, debt collection and management, and property development through its subsidiaries. The company is headquartered in Bangkok, Thailand, and was founded on December 27, 1988.

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Jaymart Group (JMART TB)

University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index & UK's 1Q24 GDP

Trading Economics expects better growth at +0.4% QoQ and 0% YoY (vs. 4Q23 at -0.3% QoQ and -0.2% YoY) and forecasts economic growth in 2Q-4Q24E at...

Krungthai XSpring

Today's Dominant Ideas

The consensus anticipates a modest improvement in the profits of industrial companies, with growth forecast at -8% YoY, compared to September's...

Krungthai XSpring

Today's Dominant Ideas

Technically, the SET Index is expected to rebound further, with the resistance at 1,490/1,495 points and the support at 1,470/1,465 points, after...

Krungthai XSpring

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: NKY, KOSPI2, New Deal, SET50, MOG Digitech, Syngenta IPO

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

SET50 Index Rebalance: TLI, WHA to Replace JMART, JMT

TLI & WHA will replace JMART & JMT in the SET50 on 30 June. Passive trackers will need to buy 3.4% of the float on TLI. The adds have outperformed...

Brian Freitas

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