Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>ASE, the global #1 OSAT company, reported Q1’23 revenues of NT$130,891 million, in line with expectations, down 26% sequentially and 9% YoY</li>
<li>Overall equipment utilisation rate fell to 60% during the first quarter</li>
<li>Q1 was the trough, but so too will be Q2</li>
</ul>


ASE, the global #1 OSAT company, reported Q1’23 revenues of NT$130,891 million, in line with expectations, down 26% sequentially and 9% YoY
Overall equipment utilisation rate fell to 60% during the first quarter
Q1 was the trough, but so too will be Q2


ASE Q1'23 Revenues Decline 26% QoQ, Q2'23 Outlook Flat Sequentially

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of April 21st.</li>
<li>We estimate the weekly inflows to be US$221.4 million, led by industrials, energy, health care sectors, and offset by information technology, consumer staples.</li>
<li>We highlight flows for Cosco Shipping, Contemporary Amperex Technology, Shenzhen Inovance Technology, Shandong Gold Mining, East Money Information, Longi Green Energy Technology, Tongwei, Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt, Ping An Insurance.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of April 21st.
We estimate the weekly inflows to be US$221.4 million, led by industrials, energy, health care sectors, and offset by information technology, consumer staples.
We highlight flows for Cosco Shipping, Contemporary Amperex Technology, Shenzhen Inovance Technology, Shandong Gold Mining, East Money Information, Longi Green Energy Technology, Tongwei, Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt, Ping An Insurance.


Northbound Flows (Apr 21st): Cosco Shipping, CATL, Shenzhen Inovance, Shandong Gold, East Money

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

MSCI Emerging Markets Index / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>In our February 6, 2023 EM Strategy, we discussed that we were buyers of the MSCI EM (EEM-US) on a pullback to the 50-day MA. </li>
<li>The pullback went a bit deeper but managed to hold at our $37.50 line-in-the-sand which we discussed in our recent ETF Pathfinder reports (Mar. 6 and Mar. 20, 2023).</li>
<li>The EEM-US displays a bullish 2-month downtrend reversal- add exposure. Signs continue to point to a topping DXY, and a declining DXY has historically resulted in EM outperformance (vs. EAFE).</li>
</ul>


In our February 6, 2023 EM Strategy, we discussed that we were buyers of the MSCI EM (EEM-US) on a pullback to the 50-day MA. 
The pullback went a bit deeper but managed to hold at our $37.50 line-in-the-sand which we discussed in our recent ETF Pathfinder reports (Mar. 6 and Mar. 20, 2023).
The EEM-US displays a bullish 2-month downtrend reversal- add exposure. Signs continue to point to a topping DXY, and a declining DXY has historically resulted in EM outperformance (vs. EAFE).


MSCI EM $EEM 2-Month Downtrend Reversal at Support -- Add Exposure. Upgrading Taiwan to Overweight

Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>JCET reported revenue/GM RMB$8,138mn/10.7% in 1Q22, which grew 21.2% YoY and 0.5% QoQ.</li>
<li>We expect that its growth would continue and likely reach to revenue/GM for about RMB$8,234.5mn/10.8% in 2Q22.</li>
<li>Although the mainland China insists in the Zero Policy against COVID-19, the GDP growth was targeting at ~5.5% in 2022. </li>
</ul>


JCET reported revenue/GM RMB$8,138mn/10.7% in 1Q22, which grew 21.2% YoY and 0.5% QoQ.
We expect that its growth would continue and likely reach to revenue/GM for about RMB$8,234.5mn/10.8% in 2Q22.
Although the mainland China insists in the Zero Policy against COVID-19, the GDP growth was targeting at ~5.5% in 2022. 


JCET (600584.CH): 2022 Outlook Should Be Better than Fear

ASE Technology Holding   / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>In the 2Q22 guidance, the revenue for ATM/EMS is ~NT$76.7bn/NT$61.2bn, the GM for ATM is ~27.5% and OPM for EMS is ~8.8%.</li>
<li>In the first quarter, ASE Holding already surpassed the historical peak of 27% gross margins. And ASE Holding will see that trend continue.</li>
<li>It's a normal phenomenon that ASE Holding is seeing inventory level being higher than before.</li>
</ul>


In the 2Q22 guidance, the revenue for ATM/EMS is ~NT$76.7bn/NT$61.2bn, the GM for ATM is ~27.5% and OPM for EMS is ~8.8%.
In the first quarter, ASE Holding already surpassed the historical peak of 27% gross margins. And ASE Holding will see that trend continue.
It's a normal phenomenon that ASE Holding is seeing inventory level being higher than before.


ASE Holding (ASX.US; 3711.TT): 1Q22 Results/ 2Q22 Outlook- 2022 Outlook Is Bright

China

JCET Group Co., Ltd. operates in the semiconductor industry.  The Company's products include discrete devices and integrated circuits.  Through its subsidiaries, Jiangsu Changjiang also manufactures signal lamps used in industrial equipment and anti-theft door systems for consumer use.

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JCET Group (600584 CH)

ASE Q1'23 Revenues Decline 26% QoQ, Q2'23 Outlook Flat Sequentially

ASE Q1 revenue down 26% QoQ, 9% YoY. Equipment utilisation fell to 60% during the quarter. Q1 was the trough, Q2 will be the same. Modest return to...

William Keating

Northbound Flows (Apr 21st): Cosco Shipping, CATL, Shenzhen Inovance, Shandong Gold, East Money

We analyzed the Shanghai/Shenzhen Connect Scheme for last week and highlight flows for Cosco Shipping, CATL, Shenzhen Inovance, Shandong Gold,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

MSCI EM $EEM 2-Month Downtrend Reversal at Support -- Add Exposure. Upgrading Taiwan to Overweight

Signs continue to point to a topping $DXY, and a declining DXY has historically resulted in EM outperformance (vs. $EAFE). Many ideas in China/Hong...

Vermilion Research

JCET (600584.CH): 2022 Outlook Should Be Better than Fear

We expect JCET's growth would continue and likely reach to revenue/GM for ~RMB$8,234.5mn/10.8% in 2Q22. Although China insisting in Zero Policy,...

Patrick Liao

ASE Holding (ASX.US; 3711.TT): 1Q22 Results/ 2Q22 Outlook- 2022 Outlook Is Bright

In the 2Q22 guidance, the revenue for ATM/EMS is ~NT$76.7bn/NT$61.2bn, the GM for ATM is ~27.5% and OPM for EMS is ~8.8%. ASE Holding already...

Patrick Liao

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