Blue Lotus Non US Internet research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Ying Pan

Blue Lotus Non US Internet research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Gaming sector: NPPA deleted the page of &lt;Online Games Governing Measure (Opinion Seeking Draft)&gt;(/)</li>
<li>JD/BABA/PDD: JD to be exclusive platform for CCTV 2024 Spring Festival Gala (+/-/-)</li>
<li>PDD/BABA/AMZN : Temu to launch semi-managed model in March (+/-/-)</li>
</ul>


Gaming sector: NPPA deleted the page of &lt;Online Games Governing Measure (Opinion Seeking Draft)&gt;(/)
JD/BABA/PDD: JD to be exclusive platform for CCTV 2024 Spring Festival Gala (+/-/-)
PDD/BABA/AMZN : Temu to launch semi-managed model in March (+/-/-)


[Blue Lotus Daily - TMT Update]:Gaming Sector/JD/BABA/PDD/BABA/AMZN

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>We expect JD.com (JD) to deliver in-line-with-consensus revenue growth with better-than-expected earnings in 4Q23, aided by better-than-expected cost control.</li><li>For 2024, we expect user experience improvement and GMV share gain, as well as new user acquisition in an efficient way to remain priorities of JD.</li><li>To account for the additional investment for the Spring Festival Gala, as well as earnings impact from potential moves to drive user and GMV growth in 2024E, we cut our DCF-based target price to US$52.0 (was US$57.5).</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

We expect JD.com (JD) to deliver in-line-with-consensus revenue growth with better-than-expected earnings in 4Q23, aided by better-than-expected cost control.For 2024, we expect user experience improvement and GMV share gain, as well as new user acquisition in an efficient way to remain priorities of JD.To account for the additional investment for the Spring Festival Gala, as well as earnings impact from potential moves to drive user and GMV growth in 2024E, we cut our DCF-based target price to US$52.0 (was US$57.5).Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

JD.com (JD US) - Driving User Growth and User Experience Improvement

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Short notional in Hong Kong is HK$335bn and has been falling over the last 12 months due to a drop in the market.</li>
<li>In terms of short notional to marketcap, the Materials, Consumer Staples, Health Care, Utilities, Real Estate sectors are most shorted while the least shorted are Information Technology, Communication Services, Energy.</li>
<li>The largest shorts have been built on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/byd-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20962:1" rel="noopener">BYD (1211)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xpeng-inc-4cc65854-d10c-4d20-bf7e-ca0e016715ff" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33772:1" rel="noopener">XPeng (9868)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/industrial-and-commercial-bank-of-china-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1119:1" rel="noopener">ICBC (1398)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xiaomi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24409:1" rel="noopener">Xiaomi (1810)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/link-reit" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:872:1" rel="noopener">Link REIT (823)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29043:1" rel="noopener">JD.com (9618)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wharf-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:51:1" rel="noopener">Wharf Holdings (4)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/new-world-development" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7037:1" rel="noopener">New World Development (17)</a>. </li>
</ul>


Short notional in Hong Kong is HK$335bn and has been falling over the last 12 months due to a drop in the market.
In terms of short notional to marketcap, the Materials, Consumer Staples, Health Care, Utilities, Real Estate sectors are most shorted while the least shorted are Information Technology, Communication Services, Energy.
The largest shorts have been built on BYD (1211), XPeng (9868), ICBC (1398), Xiaomi (1810), Link REIT (823), JD.com (9618), Wharf Holdings (4) and New World Development (17). 


Hong Kong: Where Could Shorts Be Covered?

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

BrainBees Solutions / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/brainbees-solutions" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36115:1" rel="noopener">FirstCry</a> is looking to raise up to US$700m in its upcoming India IPO.</li>
<li>FirstCry is India’s largest multi-channel retailing platform for Mothers’, Babies’ and Kids’ products in terms of GMV, for the year ending Dec 2022 (9M23), according to RedSeer.</li>
<li>In this note, we talk about the not-so-positive aspects of the deal.</li>
</ul>



FirstCry is looking to raise up to US$700m in its upcoming India IPO.
FirstCry is India’s largest multi-channel retailing platform for Mothers’, Babies’ and Kids’ products in terms of GMV, for the year ending Dec 2022 (9M23), according to RedSeer.
In this note, we talk about the not-so-positive aspects of the deal.


Brainbees Solutions (FirstCry) Pre-IPO - The Negatives - Not All of It Fits Together

HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

<ul>
<li>The essence of Shouhui's business model is to "sell insurance" rather than provide services with technological attributes. So, Shouhui has relatively single business composition and lacks diversified sources of revenue.</li>
<li>The trend of "disintermediation" is becoming increasingly evident, which may lead to customers deciding to purchase insurance directly from insurance companies not from Shouhui, resulting declining demand for Shouhui’s services/products.</li>
<li>The business nature of insurance is incompatible with the Internet's pursuit of rapid expansion. Cooling "Internet +insurance" investment in recent years proves the decline of market's enthusiasm for this business.</li>
</ul>


The essence of Shouhui's business model is to "sell insurance" rather than provide services with technological attributes. So, Shouhui has relatively single business composition and lacks diversified sources of revenue.
The trend of "disintermediation" is becoming increasingly evident, which may lead to customers deciding to purchase insurance directly from insurance companies not from Shouhui, resulting declining demand for Shouhui’s services/products.
The business nature of insurance is incompatible with the Internet's pursuit of rapid expansion. Cooling "Internet +insurance" investment in recent years proves the decline of market's enthusiasm for this business.


Pre-IPO Shouhui Tech - The Business Outlook and Stock Price Performance Are Not Optimistic

China

JD.com, Inc. is an online direct sales company in China. The Company offers a wide selection of products through its website and mobile applications. JD.com sells appliances, computers, digital products, communication products, garments, books, and household items to consumers and vendors.

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JD.com (9618 HK)

[Blue Lotus Daily - TMT Update]:Gaming Sector/JD/BABA/PDD/BABA/AMZN

NPPA deletes online gaming measure page; JD becomes exclusive platform for CCTV Gala; Temu to launch semi-managed model in March.

Blue Lotus Research Institute

JD.com (JD US) - Driving User Growth and User Experience Improvement

We expect JD.com (JD) to deliver in-line-with-consensus revenue growth with better-than-expected earnings in 4Q23, aided by better-than-expected...

CMB International

Hong Kong: Where Could Shorts Be Covered?

HK Short notional HK$335bn and has been falling over the last year due to a drop in the market. There are stocks where shorts have risen over the...

Brian Freitas

Brainbees Solutions (FirstCry) Pre-IPO - The Negatives - Not All of It Fits Together

FirstCry is looking to raise up to US$700m in its upcoming India IPO. In this note, we talk about the not-so-positive aspects of the deal.

Sumeet Singh

Pre-IPO Shouhui Tech - The Business Outlook and Stock Price Performance Are Not Optimistic

As Internet giants with greater brand recognition/resources have made online insurance intermediary market a "red sea", Shouhui's outlook is full...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

[Blue Lotus Daily - TMT Update]:Gaming Sector/JD/BABA/PDD/BABA/AMZN

​NPPA deletes online gaming measure page; JD becomes exclusive platform for CCTV Gala; Temu to launch semi-managed model in March.

Blue Lotus Research Institute

JD.com (JD US) - Driving User Growth and User Experience Improvement

We expect JD.com (JD) to deliver in-line-with-consensus revenue growth with better-than-expected earnings in 4Q23, aided by better-than-expected...

CMB International

Hong Kong: Where Could Shorts Be Covered?

HK Short notional HK$335bn and has been falling over the last year due to a drop in the market. There are stocks where shorts have risen over the...

Brian Freitas

Brainbees Solutions (FirstCry) Pre-IPO - The Negatives - Not All of It Fits Together

FirstCry is looking to raise up to US$700m in its upcoming India IPO. In this note, we talk about the not-so-positive aspects of the deal.

Sumeet Singh

Pre-IPO Shouhui Tech - The Business Outlook and Stock Price Performance Are Not Optimistic

As Internet giants with greater brand recognition/resources have made online insurance intermediary market a "red sea", Shouhui's outlook is full...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

NPPA deletes online gaming measure page; JD becomes exclusive platform for CCTV Gala; Temu to launch semi-managed model in March.