Founder and Strategist, Entext Economics & Strategy

Sean Maher

Founder and Strategist

Entext Economics & Strategy

Entext provides institutional investors with distinctive, actionable asset allocation and thematic research, which typically challenges the market consensus. Our clients range from credit, equity and multi-asset hedge and pension funds to family offices and sovereign funds. 
 
We focus on identifying key inflection points in macro data and relative asset performance amid the 'groupthink'  and confirmation bias that characterizes most investment bank analysis.

Macro Driven Investment Insight

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li><div style="text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US">I’ve been highlighting since mid-year a likely normalization of bond yields (and equity proxy multiples) from extreme valuation levels which were discounting recession/deflation fears</span></div></li>
<li><div style="text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US">The data suggests the opposite risk - the global composite PMI is now at its highest level of the year, with broad based improvement in October.</span></div></li>
<li><div style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-US">The earnings yield outlook for equities is rapidly improving – the MSCI AC net earnings revisions ratio looks set to turn positive, having been at a post 2008 low of</span>…</div></li>
</ul>


I’ve been highlighting since mid-year a likely normalization of bond yields (and equity proxy multiples) from extreme valuation levels which were discounting recession/deflation fears
The data suggests the opposite risk - the global composite PMI is now at its highest level of the year, with broad based improvement in October.

The earnings yield outlook for equities is rapidly improving – the MSCI AC net earnings revisions ratio looks set to turn positive, having been at a post 2008 low of…


Global Equity Earnings Revisions Rebound, Can Macau Casino Revenues?

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Equity Bottom-Up

<p><em>ZTO debuts on NYSE, and it's not pretty:</em> The American Depositary Shares of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/23628" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23628:1">ZTO Express (ZTO US)</a> began trading today in New York and closed at US$16.57, <em>down</em> a whopping -15% versus the IPO price of US$19.50/ADS and very close to the lower end of the original IPO price range of US$16.50-18.50. During its debut session about 55 mn ADSs changed hands. ZTO's disappointing debut is bound to leave a bitter taste in the mouths of many investors for months to come.</p><p><em>Rich valuation demands continued strong</em>…</p>

ZTO debuts on NYSE, and it's not pretty: The American Depositary Shares of ZTO Express (ZTO US) began trading today in New York and closed at US$16.57, down a whopping -15% versus the IPO price of US$19.50/ADS and very close to the lower end of the original IPO price range of US$16.50-18.50. During its debut session about 55 mn ADSs changed hands. ZTO's disappointing debut is bound to leave a bitter taste in the mouths of many investors for months to come.Rich valuation demands continued strong…

ZTO Express Debut on NYSE: Down -15% Vs IPO Price, But Still Big (Valuation) Shoes to Fill

China Macroeconomics & Academia

Christopher Balding

Macroeconomics

<p>After being upgraded as a middle income level country, the middle kingdom seems to be slowing down economically and it can be vividly observed in the latest data releases. During the third quarter official Chinese GDP remained at 6.7% driven primarily by real estate and the opaquel name “other” industries. </p><p>As we noted yesterday in our note about the discrepancy between headline GDP and underlying data, a look at monthly output from important sectors fails to match broader output in the Chinese…</p>

After being upgraded as a middle income level country, the middle kingdom seems to be slowing down economically and it can be vividly observed in the latest data releases. During the third quarter official Chinese GDP remained at 6.7% driven primarily by real estate and the opaquel name “other” industries. As we noted yesterday in our note about the discrepancy between headline GDP and underlying data, a look at monthly output from important sectors fails to match broader output in the Chinese…

What Does Output Tell Us About the Chinese Economy?

SGX Market Strategist, Equity & Fixed Income, Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

Geoff Howie

SGX Market Strategist, Equity & Fixed Income

Asia’s leading multi-asset exchange

Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

Singapore Exchange is Asia’s leading and trusted market infrastructure, facilitating the exchange of capital and ideas to create value for people, businesses and economies. As a multi-asset exchange operating equity, fixed income and derivatives markets to the highest regulatory standards, SGX is a vertically integrated business that provides listing, trading, clearing, settlement, depository and data services.

With about 40% of listed companies and over 80% of listed bonds originating outside of Singapore as well as established linkages across the region and in Europe, SGX is Asia’s most international and connected exchange. Offering a full suite of derivatives products across Asian equity indices, commodities and currencies, SGX is the world’s most liquid international market for the benchmark equity indices of China, India, Japan and ASEAN.

As Asia’s pioneering central counterparty, SGX is globally recognised for its risk management and clearing capabilities, and was one of the first globally to adopt the Principles for Financial Market Infrastructure.

Headquartered in AAA-rated Singapore, SGX has over 800 employees including offices in Beijing, Chicago, Hong Kong, London, New York, Mumbai, San Francisco, Shanghai and Tokyo.

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<p>§  <strong>The Consumer Staples Sector is made up of businesses less sensitive to economic cycles. In comparison, the performance of businesses in the Consumer Discretionary Sector tend to be more impacted by these cycles.</strong></p>
<p><strong> </strong></p>
<p>§  <strong>Globally, the MSCI World Consumer Staples Index has generated a 2.7% dividend inclusive YTD return while regionally, the MSCI AC Asia Pacific Consumer Staples Index generated a 5.7% dividend inclusive YTD return. This compared to a 1.3% decline and 0.8% gain for the</strong>…</p>
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§  The Consumer Staples Sector is made up of businesses less sensitive to economic cycles. In comparison, the performance of businesses in the Consumer Discretionary Sector tend to be more impacted by these cycles.
 
§  Globally, the MSCI World Consumer Staples Index has generated a 2.7% dividend inclusive YTD return while regionally, the MSCI AC Asia Pacific Consumer Staples Index generated a 5.7% dividend inclusive YTD return. This compared to a 1.3% decline and 0.8% gain for the…




Consumer Staples Offered Investor Returns Amid Lower Growth Outlooks

Independent TMT Analyst

Edison Lee, CFA

<ul><li>For September 2016, China reported sharply lower growth in overall eCommerce revenue, even though there was a moderate recovery in the revenue growth of online sales of physical goods.</li></ul><p><strong>Figure 1: China's YoY e-Commerce Revenue Growth</strong></p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/014/980/original/China%20eCommerce%20growth%20Sep%2016.png?1476845856" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="14980"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China</div><ul><li>Even though the YoY growth rate of online sales of physical goods improved from 23.7% in August to 26.1% in September, the growth rate has now been, for two months in a row, well below the run rate of over 30% since March…</li></ul>

For September 2016, China reported sharply lower growth in overall eCommerce revenue, even though there was a moderate recovery in the revenue growth of online sales of physical goods.Figure 1: China's YoY e-Commerce Revenue GrowthSource: National Bureau of Statistics of ChinaEven though the YoY growth rate of online sales of physical goods improved from 23.7% in August to 26.1% in September, the growth rate has now been, for two months in a row, well below the run rate of over 30% since March…

China's Sept. Online Sales Growth Still Well Below 30%. Service Sales Slowed Sharply.

China

JD.com, Inc. is an online direct sales company in China. The Company offers a wide selection of products through its website and mobile applications. JD.com sells appliances, computers, digital products, communication products, garments, books, and household items to consumers and vendors.

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JD.com (9618 HK)

Global Equity Earnings Revisions Rebound, Can Macau Casino Revenues?

I’ve been highlighting since mid-year a likely normalization of bond yields (and equity proxy multiples) from extreme valuation levels which were...

Sean Maher

ZTO Express Debut on NYSE: Down -15% Vs IPO Price, But Still Big (Valuation) Shoes to Fill

ZTO debuts on NYSE, and it's not pretty: The American Depositary Shares of ZTO Express (ZTO US) began trading today in New York and closed at...

Daniel Hellberg

What Does Output Tell Us About the Chinese Economy?

After being upgraded as a middle income level country, the middle kingdom seems to be slowing down economically and it can be vividly observed in...

Christopher Balding

Consumer Staples Offered Investor Returns Amid Lower Growth Outlooks

§ The Consumer Staples Sector is made up of businesses less sensitive to economic cycles. In comparison, the performance of businesses...

Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

China's Sept. Online Sales Growth Still Well Below 30%. Service Sales Slowed Sharply.

For September 2016, China reported sharply lower growth in overall eCommerce revenue, even though there was a moderate recovery in the revenue...

Edison Lee, CFA

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