HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Bottom-Up

Ping An Healthcare and Technology / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The “turning point” occurs as share price of innovative drug sector is pulling back. Many companies would see valuations halved - potentially more than once.The decline is far from over.</li>
<li>The current main goal of biotech is to turn losses into profits ASAP. If it fails to make a profit, it may not be recognized by the market.</li>
<li>Due to the concerns on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ping-an-healthcare-and-technology-company-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27008:1" rel="noopener">Ping An Healthcare and Technology (1833 HK)'s </a>business model, peak revenue scale could be just RMB8 billion. In other words, Ping An Healthcare is overvalued.</li>
</ul>


The “turning point” occurs as share price of innovative drug sector is pulling back. Many companies would see valuations halved - potentially more than once.The decline is far from over.
The current main goal of biotech is to turn losses into profits ASAP. If it fails to make a profit, it may not be recognized by the market.
Due to the concerns on Ping An Healthcare and Technology (1833 HK)'s business model, peak revenue scale could be just RMB8 billion. In other words, Ping An Healthcare is overvalued.


China Healthcare Weekly (Oct.19)-Bubble of HK Biotech Is Bursting, Ping An Good Doctor Is Overvalued

Equity Capital Markets

Shanghai MediTrust Health Technology Group / Equity Capital Markets

Shanghai MediTrust Health Technology Group

<ul>
<li>The essence of MediTrust’s business model is building an ecosystem of "Internet/AI + drugs + medical services + insurance". The core competitiveness lies in the network effect of medical payments.</li>
<li>Smart Pharma Solution overly relies on pharmaceutical companies' promotion budgets and is susceptible to the impact of industry policies. Smart Insurance Solution is facing the industry dilemma of poor profitability.</li>
<li>Post-Money valuation after Series C+ financing is RMB11.68bn. Based on 2024 revenue of RMB2.035bn, P/S is 5.7x. We think valuation of MediTrust should be lower than <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ping-an-healthcare-and-technology-company-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27008:1" rel="noopener">Ping An Good Doctor</a>
</li>
</ul>


The essence of MediTrust’s business model is building an ecosystem of "Internet/AI + drugs + medical services + insurance". The core competitiveness lies in the network effect of medical payments.
Smart Pharma Solution overly relies on pharmaceutical companies' promotion budgets and is susceptible to the impact of industry policies. Smart Insurance Solution is facing the industry dilemma of poor profitability.
Post-Money valuation after Series C+ financing is RMB11.68bn. Based on 2024 revenue of RMB2.035bn, P/S is 5.7x. We think valuation of MediTrust should be lower than Ping An Good Doctor



Pre-IPO Shanghai MediTrust Health Technology Group - The Business Model and the Concerns Behind

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Following Trump's threats on tariffs and pull-out of meeting with Xi, the 5% collapse in the HSI futures implies a heavy sell-off in HK when the market reopens.</li>
<li>The stocks with the best YTD performance and significant strengths in the last month are the prime candidates most vulnerable to the initial collapse. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/semiconductor-manufacturing-international-corp-smic" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14231:1" rel="noopener">Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC) (981 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kuaishou-technology" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29725:1" rel="noopener">Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd-d7b798e2-202d-4e01-9a1e-799e2ae8f0c7" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba (9988 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hua-hong-semiconductor-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7201:1" rel="noopener">Hua Hong Semiconductor (1347 HK)</a> are badly exposed.</li>
</ul>


Following Trump's threats on tariffs and pull-out of meeting with Xi, the 5% collapse in the HSI futures implies a heavy sell-off in HK when the market reopens.
The stocks with the best YTD performance and significant strengths in the last month are the prime candidates most vulnerable to the initial collapse. 

Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC) (981 HK), Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK), Alibaba (9988 HK), and Hua Hong Semiconductor (1347 HK) are badly exposed.


Chow Tai Fook Jewellery / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chow-tai-fook-jewellery-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:549:1" rel="noopener">Chow Tai Fook Jewellery (1929 HK)</a> is one of the best-performing <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)</a> constituents YTD, but it is time to take some money off the table.</li>
<li>At 5%, its 12-month forward dividend yield is about the lowest in the last five years, implying limited share price upside. Valuations have run ahead of earnings momentum.</li>
<li>The recent recovery in Hong Kong jewellery retail sales is partly due to the low base effect. Additionally, a higher gold price will weigh on demand for gold products. </li>
</ul>



Chow Tai Fook Jewellery (1929 HK) is one of the best-performing Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) constituents YTD, but it is time to take some money off the table.
At 5%, its 12-month forward dividend yield is about the lowest in the last five years, implying limited share price upside. Valuations have run ahead of earnings momentum.
The recent recovery in Hong Kong jewellery retail sales is partly due to the low base effect. Additionally, a higher gold price will weigh on demand for gold products. 


Chow Tai Fook (1929 HK): A Lot Has Been Priced In

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analysed the earning revision of component stocks of HS TECH in the past month.</li>
<li>We tabulated stocks with the top impact on index's EPS, stocks' EPS revision, and revenue revision.</li>
<li>We highlighted EPS revision on Kuaishou, HORIZON ROBOTICS, JD.COM, BIDU, MEITUAN, BYD, Horizonrobot, Meituan, Jd, Kuaishou, Bidu, BYD.</li>
</ul>


We analysed the earning revision of component stocks of HS TECH in the past month.
We tabulated stocks with the top impact on index's EPS, stocks' EPS revision, and revenue revision.
We highlighted EPS revision on Kuaishou, HORIZON ROBOTICS, JD.COM, BIDU, MEITUAN, BYD, Horizonrobot, Meituan, Jd, Kuaishou, Bidu, BYD.


HS TECH Index Earning Revision (Sep): Kuaishou, HORIZON ROBOTICS, JD.COM, BIDU, MEITUAN, BYD

China

JD Health International Inc. operates drug stores. The Company retails Chinese and Western medicines, nutrition products, health care products, and other products. JD Health International markets its products throughout China.

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JD Health International (6618 HK)

China Healthcare Weekly (Oct.19)-Bubble of HK Biotech Is Bursting, Ping An Good Doctor Is Overvalued

Innovative drug sector facing share price decline, companies at risk of halved valuations multiple times.The main goal of biotech is to turn...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Pre-IPO Shanghai MediTrust Health Technology Group - The Business Model and the Concerns Behind

MediTrust's business model focuses on building an ecosystem with core competitiveness in the network effect of medical payments.But the business...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

HK Strategy: Who Will Suffer the Most?

Trump's tariff threats and market uncertainty lead to a potential heavy sell-off in HK, with top-performing stocks like SMIC, Kuaishou, Alibaba,...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Chow Tai Fook (1929 HK): A Lot Has Been Priced In

CTF is a top-performing HSI constituent YTD, but with low dividend yield and high valuations, it may be time to sell. Recovery in HK jewellery...

Osbert Tang, CFA

HS TECH Index Earning Revision (Sep): Kuaishou, HORIZON ROBOTICS, JD.COM, BIDU, MEITUAN, BYD

We analyzed HS TECH's consensus for Sep 2025 and highlighted changes of EPS in Kuaishou, HORIZON ROBOTICS, JD.COM, BIDU, MEITUAN, BYD,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

China Healthcare Weekly (Oct.19)-Bubble of HK Biotech Is Bursting, Ping An Good Doctor Is Overvalued

​Innovative drug sector facing share price decline, companies at risk of halved valuations multiple times.The main goal of biotech is to turn...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Pre-IPO Shanghai MediTrust Health Technology Group - The Business Model and the Concerns Behind

​MediTrust's business model focuses on building an ecosystem with core competitiveness in the network effect of medical payments.But the business...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

HK Strategy: Who Will Suffer the Most?

​Trump's tariff threats and market uncertainty lead to a potential heavy sell-off in HK, with top-performing stocks like SMIC, Kuaishou, Alibaba,...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Chow Tai Fook (1929 HK): A Lot Has Been Priced In

CTF is a top-performing HSI constituent YTD, but with low dividend yield and high valuations, it may be time to sell. Recovery in HK jewellery...

Osbert Tang, CFA

HS TECH Index Earning Revision (Sep): Kuaishou, HORIZON ROBOTICS, JD.COM, BIDU, MEITUAN, BYD

We analyzed HS TECH's consensus for Sep 2025 and highlighted changes of EPS in Kuaishou, HORIZON ROBOTICS, JD.COM, BIDU, MEITUAN, BYD,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Innovative drug sector facing share price decline, companies at risk of halved valuations multiple times.The main goal of biotech is to turn...

MediTrust's business model focuses on building an ecosystem with core competitiveness in the network effect of medical payments.But the business...

Trump's tariff threats and market uncertainty lead to a potential heavy sell-off in HK, with top-performing stocks like SMIC, Kuaishou, Alibaba,...