Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Solid momentum: the pace of revenue growth slowed in Q425, but still reached 21.9% Y/Y</li>
<li>Owing to poor cost control, Q425 margins fell again, though pace of declines eased</li>
<li>Sigh of relief? Even after Friday's 23% surge, JD Logistics' shares down ~4% vs a year ago</li>
</ul>


Solid momentum: the pace of revenue growth slowed in Q425, but still reached 21.9% Y/Y
Owing to poor cost control, Q425 margins fell again, though pace of declines eased
Sigh of relief? Even after Friday's 23% surge, JD Logistics' shares down ~4% vs a year ago


JD Logistics Q425 Earnings: Top-Line Growth Strong, but Margins Shrank on Weak Cost Control

China New Economy Equity Analyst, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Robert McKay

China New Economy Equity Analyst

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>China consumption shows rebounding demand following appreciation in asset values and home appliance subsidies. A record number of parcels were delivered last week, while home appliance sales grew rapidly;</li>
<li>We’ve raised 4Q estimates for online shopping growth given the recent demand trends which we expect to sustain through the quarter, so long as stimulus remains forthcoming;</li>
<li>JD and BABA remain our top ecommerce picks given their exposure to recent home appliance subsidies, as well as benefiting from a longer-term improvement in consumer sentiment.</li>
</ul>


China consumption shows rebounding demand following appreciation in asset values and home appliance subsidies. A record number of parcels were delivered last week, while home appliance sales grew rapidly;
We’ve raised 4Q estimates for online shopping growth given the recent demand trends which we expect to sustain through the quarter, so long as stimulus remains forthcoming;
JD and BABA remain our top ecommerce picks given their exposure to recent home appliance subsidies, as well as benefiting from a longer-term improvement in consumer sentiment.


Old E-Commerce Names Are The Biggest Winners of New Stimulus

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>The US Court of International Trade has lifted stay on lawsuit tied to US de minimis imports</li>
<li>The lawsuit seeks to reverse the Trump admin's order to ban low-value de minimis imports</li>
<li>A return of the US$800 de minimis exemption would be welcome news for SHEIN, Temu</li>
</ul>


The US Court of International Trade has lifted stay on lawsuit tied to US de minimis imports
The lawsuit seeks to reverse the Trump admin's order to ban low-value de minimis imports
A return of the US$800 de minimis exemption would be welcome news for SHEIN, Temu


US De Minimis Exemption Back From the Dead?! Court Revives Lawsuit, Orders Briefings in Coming Weeks

Cainiao Smart Logistics Network / Equity Capital Markets

Cainiao Smart Logistics Network (1437124D HK)

<ul>
<li>The transaction reportedly values Chinese "robovan" maker ZelosTech at around US$2 bn</li>
<li>We offer background on ZelosTech: history, funding, products, key operating partners</li>
<li>'So what?' CaiNiao gave up its AV business, think "robovans" first, PONY's status dented</li>
</ul>


The transaction reportedly values Chinese "robovan" maker ZelosTech at around US$2 bn
We offer background on ZelosTech: history, funding, products, key operating partners
'So what?' CaiNiao gave up its AV business, think "robovans" first, PONY's status dented


Alibaba's CaiNiao Takes Stake in Robovan Maker ZelosTech | Who Is ZelosTech, Why Does Deal Matter?

<ul>
<li>With the exception of SF Holding, all listed express firms reported lower H1 OP%</li>
<li>SF's independence and unique product mix protected profits as volume surged</li>
<li>We suggest going Long SF Hldg against Short positions in ZTO &amp; J&amp;T</li>
</ul>


With the exception of SF Holding, all listed express firms reported lower H1 OP%
SF's independence and unique product mix protected profits as volume surged
We suggest going Long SF Hldg against Short positions in ZTO &amp; J&amp;T


Chinese Express Firms All Saw H1 OPM% Fall -- Except SF Hldg | Pair Trade: LONG SF Vs SHORT ZTO, J&T

China

JD Logistics is a technology-driven supply chain solutions and logistics services provider, offering warehousing, distribution, and express and freight delivery. It serves various industries including fast-moving consumer goods, apparel, and automotive. The company is headquartered in Beijing, China, and was founded in 2007.

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JD Logistics (2618 HK)

JD Logistics Q425 Earnings: Top-Line Growth Strong, but Margins Shrank on Weak Cost Control

Shares jumped by 23% last Friday after the company disclosed Q425 results that showed solid top-line results but still no end to declining core...

Tracking Traffic

Old E-Commerce Names Are The Biggest Winners of New Stimulus

China's consumption seeing increased demand for home appliances and online shopping, leading to record parcel deliveries. JD and BABA are top...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

US De Minimis Exemption Back From the Dead?! Court Revives Lawsuit, Orders Briefings in Coming Weeks

A US court has quietly allowed a lawsuit against the US Department of Commerce to move forward. If the plaintiff prevails, the US "de minimis"...

Tracking Traffic

Alibaba's CaiNiao Takes Stake in Robovan Maker ZelosTech | Who Is ZelosTech, Why Does Deal Matter?

Last week came news that Alibaba's logistics arm, CaiNiao, had taken a minority stake in autonomous "robovan" maker ZelosTech. In this insight we...

Tracking Traffic

Chinese Express Firms All Saw H1 OPM% Fall -- Except SF Hldg | Pair Trade: LONG SF Vs SHORT ZTO, J&T

SF Holding's unique position within China's eComm fulfillment space allowed it to successfully defend against the margin pressures that afflicted...

Tracking Traffic

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

JD Logistics Q425 Earnings: Top-Line Growth Strong, but Margins Shrank on Weak Cost Control

Shares jumped by 23% last Friday after the company disclosed Q425 results that showed solid top-line results but still no end to declining core...

Tracking Traffic

Old E-Commerce Names Are The Biggest Winners of New Stimulus

​China's consumption seeing increased demand for home appliances and online shopping, leading to record parcel deliveries. JD and BABA are top...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

US De Minimis Exemption Back From the Dead?! Court Revives Lawsuit, Orders Briefings in Coming Weeks

A US court has quietly allowed a lawsuit against the US Department of Commerce to move forward. If the plaintiff prevails, the US "de minimis"...

Tracking Traffic

Alibaba's CaiNiao Takes Stake in Robovan Maker ZelosTech | Who Is ZelosTech, Why Does Deal Matter?

Last week came news that Alibaba's logistics arm, CaiNiao, had taken a minority stake in autonomous "robovan" maker ZelosTech. In this insight we...

Tracking Traffic

Chinese Express Firms All Saw H1 OPM% Fall -- Except SF Hldg | Pair Trade: LONG SF Vs SHORT ZTO, J&T

SF Holding's unique position within China's eComm fulfillment space allowed it to successfully defend against the margin pressures that afflicted...

Tracking Traffic

China's consumption seeing increased demand for home appliances and online shopping, leading to record parcel deliveries. JD and BABA are top...