Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>In Q423 JD Logistics booked 10% top-line growth &amp; solid margin improvement</li>
<li>We analyze the impacts of JD.com &amp; Deppon Logistics on JD Logistics' Q423</li>
<li>Given still-low profitability, JD Logistics does not appear cheap, in our view</li>
</ul>


In Q423 JD Logistics booked 10% top-line growth &amp; solid margin improvement
We analyze the impacts of JD.com &amp; Deppon Logistics on JD Logistics' Q423
Given still-low profitability, JD Logistics does not appear cheap, in our view


Analyzing the Roles Parent JD.com & Subsidiary Deppon Played in JD Logistics' Q423 Results

Blue Lotus Non US Internet research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Ying Pan

Blue Lotus Non US Internet research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>JD/BABA/2618.HK/6690.HK/000333.SH/000651.SH/1810.HK: Some cities have begun to roll out “Trade Old in for New” home appliance  subsidies (+)</li>
<li>700 HK: Source suggested that &lt;Black Myth: Wukong&gt; will commence pre-sales on Tencent's WeGame platform on May 19th.(+)</li>
<li>SHEIN: SHEIN launches support for self-operating 3P merchants in Europe (+)</li>
</ul>


JD/BABA/2618.HK/6690.HK/000333.SH/000651.SH/1810.HK: Some cities have begun to roll out “Trade Old in for New” home appliance  subsidies (+)
700 HK: Source suggested that &lt;Black Myth: Wukong&gt; will commence pre-sales on Tencent's WeGame platform on May 19th.(+)
SHEIN: SHEIN launches support for self-operating 3P merchants in Europe (+)


[Blue Lotus Daily - TMT Update]:JD US/BABA US/2618 HK/6690 HK/000333 SH/000651 SH/1810HK/700HK/SHEIN

Forensic Analyst

Jason Yap, CFA

Forensic Accounting

In Q1 2021, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-com-inc-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:446:1" rel="noopener">JD.com Inc (ADR) (JD US)</a> reported strong topline growth (+39% yoy) that exceeded consensus expectations mainly due to strong user growth (+29% yoy), with more than 500 million reported Annual Active Users (AAU).  Out of which, 80% new active users came from lower tier cities, which reflects JD's strategy shift to target the fast growing lower tier markets (下沉市场) through its newly formed Jingxi business group. 
As JD continues its transition from the largest retail company in China (by revenue) to a supply chain-based technology and service provider, we can likely expect a moderated revenue growth for its core JD Retail business and incremental investments in New Initiatives and its logistics and fulfillment capabilities, with a key focus on Jingxi.
In Q1 2021, JD announced that Jingxi related businesses, will be carved out from JD Retail and reported under the New Businesses segment.  Having grown to a certain size, the change in reporting segment is not a jingxi or surprise. Instead, JD has been telegraphing the growing role of Jingxi and, more broadly, the moderating pace of growth of its core businesses in mature markets during recent quarter-end earnings calls and in related disclosures.   
This article discusses how to analyse earnings calls and disclosures using a forensic approach, with a view to gain relevant insights on JD's future prospects.

In Q1 2021, JD.com Inc (ADR) (JD US) reported strong topline growth (+39% yoy) that exceeded consensus expectations mainly due to strong user growth (+29% yoy), with more than 500 million reported Annual Active Users (AAU).  Out of which, 80% new active users came from lower tier cities, which reflects JD's strategy shift to target the fast growing lower tier markets (下沉市场) through its newly formed Jingxi business group. 
As JD continues its transition from the largest retail company in China (by revenue) to a supply chain-based technology and service provider, we can likely expect a moderated revenue growth for its core JD Retail business and incremental investments in New Initiatives and its logistics and fulfillment capabilities, with a key focus on Jingxi.
In Q1 2021, JD announced that Jingxi related businesses, will be carved out from JD Retail and reported under the New Businesses segment.  Having grown to a certain size, the change in reporting segment is not a jingxi or surprise. Instead, JD has been telegraphing the growing role of Jingxi and, more broadly, the moderating pace of growth of its core businesses in mature markets during recent quarter-end earnings calls and in related disclosures.   
This article discusses how to analyse earnings calls and disclosures using a forensic approach, with a view to gain relevant insights on JD's future prospects. 

JD - Analysing Earnings Calls and Disclosures Using a Forensic Approach

Overseas Chinese Equities, Aequitas Research

Ming Lu

Overseas Chinese Equities

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>In 2Q23, total revenue grew by 31% YoY and revenue from external customers grew by 56% YoY.</li>
<li>The operating margin can still breakeven during the rapid growth.</li>
<li>We believe the stock has an upside of 70% for yearend 2024. Buy.</li>
</ul>


In 2Q23, total revenue grew by 31% YoY and revenue from external customers grew by 56% YoY.
The operating margin can still breakeven during the rapid growth.
We believe the stock has an upside of 70% for yearend 2024. Buy.


JD Logistics (2618 HK): 2Q23, External Revenue Still Grew Rapidly, 70% Upside

China/Asia TMT

Shawn Yang

<ul>
<li>We expect JDL to report C2Q23 revenue and non-IFRS net profit margin (1.5%) and 0.4ppts vs. consensus. We expect 2Q revenue (excl. Deppon) to grow 5%~ YoY .</li>
<li>JDL is facing increasing competition from (1) the recent launch of Cainiao’s high-end delivery service, (2) improved ZTO service, and (2) Douyin’s actions to increasingly in-source logistics.</li>
<li>We maintain JDL's SELL rating but raise its TP to HK$ 9.4, as we expect JDL will lower staffing costs, and by reducing staff redundancy.</li>
</ul>


We expect JDL to report C2Q23 revenue and non-IFRS net profit margin (1.5%) and 0.4ppts vs. consensus. We expect 2Q revenue (excl. Deppon) to grow 5%~ YoY .
JDL is facing increasing competition from (1) the recent launch of Cainiao’s high-end delivery service, (2) improved ZTO service, and (2) Douyin’s actions to increasingly in-source logistics.
We maintain JDL's SELL rating but raise its TP to HK$ 9.4, as we expect JDL will lower staffing costs, and by reducing staff redundancy.


[JD Logistics (2618 HK, SELL, TP HK$9.4) TP Change]: Premium Parcel Delivery Is Increasingly Crowded

China

JD Logistics, Inc. offers logistics services. The Company provides cargo transportation, cargo distribution, warehousing, and other services. JD Logistics is located in China.

JD Logistics (2618 HK)

Analyzing the Roles Parent JD.com & Subsidiary Deppon Played in JD Logistics' Q423 Results

JD Logistics reported +10% top-line growth in Q423, and strong improvements in margins. In this insight we look at the dynamics between JD...

Tracking Traffic

[Blue Lotus Daily - TMT Update]:JD US/BABA US/2618 HK/6690 HK/000333 SH/000651 SH/1810HK/700HK/SHEIN

Some cities begun to roll out “Trade Old in for New” subsidies. will commence pre-sales on Tencent's WeGame on May.SHEIN launches support for self...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

JD - Analysing Earnings Calls and Disclosures Using a Forensic Approach

JD has at times revised disclosures possibly to conceal growth or margin weakness. We discuss how to analyse earnings calls and disclosures using a...

Jason Yap, CFA