Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>In Q125, ZTO's rate of volume growth accelerated, but it still lagged overall market growth</li>
<li>Despite a sharp (-18% Y/Y) decline in SG&amp;A expenses, OpInc margin fell by -70 bps Y/Y</li>
<li>Guidance suggests ZTO will chase volume share rest of FY25, pressuring margins further</li>
</ul>


In Q125, ZTO's rate of volume growth accelerated, but it still lagged overall market growth
Despite a sharp (-18% Y/Y) decline in SG&amp;A expenses, OpInc margin fell by -70 bps Y/Y
Guidance suggests ZTO will chase volume share rest of FY25, pressuring margins further


ZTO Express Q125 Results: Adj EBITDA Barely Moved Despite +19% Y/Y Parcel Volume Growth | AVOID

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Recently we revisited the SHEIN vs Amazon shopping comparison we first tried in Dec 2023</li>
<li>For the items we purchased 17 months ago, total cost at AMZN was largely unchanged</li>
<li>But at SHEIN, those items almost tripled in cost, still feature slow transits, difficult returns</li>
</ul>


Recently we revisited the SHEIN vs Amazon shopping comparison we first tried in Dec 2023
For the items we purchased 17 months ago, total cost at AMZN was largely unchanged
But at SHEIN, those items almost tripled in cost, still feature slow transits, difficult returns


SHEIN Vs Amazon, Part II: What Changed Since Our Last Shopping Adventure? SHEIN Cost Nearly Tripled!

<ul>
<li>Last week Temu confirmed dramatic changes to its business model in the US</li>
<li>Temu won't sell Chinese goods directly to US consumers, &amp; will rely on local fulfillment</li>
<li>The moves seem to put Temu into direct competition with Amazon, Walmart.com</li>
</ul>


Last week Temu confirmed dramatic changes to its business model in the US
Temu won't sell Chinese goods directly to US consumers, &amp; will rely on local fulfillment
The moves seem to put Temu into direct competition with Amazon, Walmart.com


In Response to Tariff & "De Minimis" Changes, Temu Alters US Business Model, Morphing Into...Amazon?

<ul>
<li>SF Hldg had slowest Q125 revenue growth among China-listed express companies, STO fastest
</li>
<li>Only these two express firms reported margin expansion in Q125 -- how'd they do it?</li>
<li>Q125 results suggest two very different paths toward improved express profitability</li>
</ul>


SF Hldg had slowest Q125 revenue growth among China-listed express companies, STO fastest

Only these two express firms reported margin expansion in Q125 -- how'd they do it?
Q125 results suggest two very different paths toward improved express profitability


Chinese Express: SF, STO Enjoyed Margin Expansion in Q125; YTO, Yunda Saw Margins Contract

<ul>
<li>March and Q125 parcel volume growth slowed only slightly vs strong Q424 and FY24</li>
<li>Single-Digit unit price declines should be manageable for most of the express companies</li>
<li>But express "story" generally unexciting, and most shares should continue to lag Alibaba</li>
</ul>


March and Q125 parcel volume growth slowed only slightly vs strong Q424 and FY24
Single-Digit unit price declines should be manageable for most of the express companies
But express "story" generally unexciting, and most shares should continue to lag Alibaba


Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | March, Q125 Growth Solid | But Shares Lag Alibaba (April 2025)

China

JD Logistics, Inc. offers logistics services. The Company provides cargo transportation, cargo distribution, warehousing, and other services. JD Logistics is located in China.

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JD Logistics (2618 HK)

ZTO Express Q125 Results: Adj EBITDA Barely Moved Despite +19% Y/Y Parcel Volume Growth | AVOID

ZTO Express reported core margin compression again in Q125, despite an acceleration of volume growth and impressive cost control. "Key accounts"...

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SHEIN Vs Amazon, Part II: What Changed Since Our Last Shopping Adventure? SHEIN Cost Nearly Tripled!

Our personal shopping "experiment" suggests that SHEIN has lost most of the price advantage it enjoyed over US eComm giant Amazon a year and a half...

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In Response to Tariff & "De Minimis" Changes, Temu Alters US Business Model, Morphing Into...Amazon?

In the US, Pinduoduo's Temu platform has made sudden, dramatic changes to its business model. The changes could bring Temu into direct competition...

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Chinese Express: SF, STO Enjoyed Margin Expansion in Q125; YTO, Yunda Saw Margins Contract

Chinese express companies SF Holding and STO Express followed two very disparate paths to Op Inc margin expansion in Q1 2025

Tracking Traffic

Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | March, Q125 Growth Solid | But Shares Lag Alibaba (April 2025)

In March and Q125, express volume growth remained firm, and unit price declines should be manageable for most express companies. But as an...

Tracking Traffic

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