Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Capital Markets

Cainiao Smart Logistics Network / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>In this insight we first consider which comparables are the most appropriate for CaiNiao</li>
<li>We then discuss which valuation multiples make sense, plus some potential pitfalls </li>
<li>We believe CaiNiao and their bankers could justify a valuation up to 310 bn CNY</li>
</ul>


In this insight we first consider which comparables are the most appropriate for CaiNiao
We then discuss which valuation multiples make sense, plus some potential pitfalls 
We believe CaiNiao and their bankers could justify a valuation up to 310 bn CNY


CaiNiao Smart Logistics Pre-IPO Part 3 | Key Comps, Valuation Multiples | 310 Bn CNY Justifiable

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Clarence Chu

APAC IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/j-t-global-express-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36819:1" rel="noopener">J&amp;T Global Express (1519 HK)</a> launched its US$500m HK IPO earlier in the week, with more than half of the Offer Shares going to its pre-IPO shareholders.</li>
<li>It was a busy week for placements as well, with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/liontown-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20488:1" rel="noopener">Liontown Resources (LTR AU)</a>'s stealing the spotlight with its equity/debt raising, after Albemarle withdrew its acquisition bid. </li>
</ul>


Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.

J&amp;T Global Express (1519 HK) launched its US$500m HK IPO earlier in the week, with more than half of the Offer Shares going to its pre-IPO shareholders.
It was a busy week for placements as well, with Liontown Resources (LTR AU)'s stealing the spotlight with its equity/debt raising, after Albemarle withdrew its acquisition bid. 


ECM Weekly (22nd Oct 2023) - J&T, Cuscal, Liontown, Cainiao, ZJLD, Taiwan Cement, Zomato, Hana Micro

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

Kurita Water Industries / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/light-wonder-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36929:1" rel="noopener">Light &amp; Wonder (LNW US)</a>/ <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/light-wonder-inc-7e7d040f-e811-4fb9-9710-796a39af299e" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40171:1" rel="noopener">Light &amp; Wonder (LNW AU)</a> replaced <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/united-malt-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29116:1" rel="noopener">United Malt Group Ltd (UMG AU)</a> in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> last week.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/newcrest-mining-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:691:1" rel="noopener">Newcrest Mining (NCM AU)</a> stops trading this week and should be replaced by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/newmont-mining-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14503:1" rel="noopener">Newmont Mining (NEM US)</a> CDIs in the ASX indices.</li>
<li>Another week of ETF outflows for China with the largest outflows from trackers benchmarked to the CSI 1000 Index.</li>
</ul>



Light &amp; Wonder (LNW US)/ Light &amp; Wonder (LNW AU) replaced United Malt Group Ltd (UMG AU) in the S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) last week.

Newcrest Mining (NCM AU) stops trading this week and should be replaced by Newmont Mining (NEM US) CDIs in the ASX indices.
Another week of ETF outflows for China with the largest outflows from trackers benchmarked to the CSI 1000 Index.


Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: NKY, ASX, Liontown, J&T Express, JP/IN Positioning, IndusInd Bank

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cainiao-smart-logistics-network-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36859:1" rel="noopener">Cainiao Smart Logistics</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd-d7b798e2-202d-4e01-9a1e-799e2ae8f0c7" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group Holding</a>’s logistics linked arm, is planning to raise at least US$1bn in its Hong Kong IPO.</li>
<li>Cainiao is the largest provider of cross-border e-commerce logistics services globally and a leader in China logistics services, according to CIC.</li>
<li>In our previous note we looked at the company’s past performance and undertook a peer comparison. In this note, we will talk about valuations.</li>
</ul>



Cainiao Smart Logistics, Alibaba Group Holding’s logistics linked arm, is planning to raise at least US$1bn in its Hong Kong IPO.
Cainiao is the largest provider of cross-border e-commerce logistics services globally and a leader in China logistics services, according to CIC.
In our previous note we looked at the company’s past performance and undertook a peer comparison. In this note, we will talk about valuations.


Cainiao Pre-IPO - Initial Thoughts on Valuation

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cainiao-smart-logistics-network-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36859:1" rel="noopener">Cainiao Smart Logistics (1437124D HK)</a>, a global leader in e-commerce logistics, has filed for a HKEx IPO to raise at least US$1 billion at a US$15-20 billion valuation. </li>
<li>According to CIC, Cainiao is the world’s leading cross-border e-commerce logistics company regarding parcel volume in 2022, with one of the world’s largest logistics networks in terms of geographic reach.</li>
<li>The bull case rests on market share gains in China, improving performance of the largest business (international logistics), and rising gross and operating margins. </li>
</ul>



Cainiao Smart Logistics (1437124D HK), a global leader in e-commerce logistics, has filed for a HKEx IPO to raise at least US$1 billion at a US$15-20 billion valuation. 
According to CIC, Cainiao is the world’s leading cross-border e-commerce logistics company regarding parcel volume in 2022, with one of the world’s largest logistics networks in terms of geographic reach.
The bull case rests on market share gains in China, improving performance of the largest business (international logistics), and rising gross and operating margins. 


Cainiao Smart Logistics IPO: The Bull Case

China

JD Logistics, Inc. offers logistics services. The Company provides cargo transportation, cargo distribution, warehousing, and other services. JD Logistics is located in China.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

JD Logistics (2618 HK)

CaiNiao Smart Logistics Pre-IPO Part 3 | Key Comps, Valuation Multiples | 310 Bn CNY Justifiable

In this insight we present an approach to valuing CaiNiao, including which comps and multiples make the most sense. We believe a valuation of up to...

Tracking Traffic

ECM Weekly (22nd Oct 2023) - J&T, Cuscal, Liontown, Cainiao, ZJLD, Taiwan Cement, Zomato, Hana Micro

Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.

Clarence Chu

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: NKY, ASX, Liontown, J&T Express, JP/IN Positioning, IndusInd Bank

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

Cainiao Pre-IPO - Initial Thoughts on Valuation

Cainiao Smart Logistics, Alibaba Group Holding’s logistics linked arm, is planning to raise at least US$1bn in its Hong Kong IPO.

Sumeet Singh

Cainiao Smart Logistics IPO: The Bull Case

The bull case rests on market share gains in China, improving performance of the largest business (international logistics), and rising gross and...

Arun George

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)