HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Although <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jingdong-jd-industrials-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36875:1" rel="noopener">JD Industrials (7618 HK)</a> is China's largest MRO player, its maximum IPO price of HK$15.5 implies a rich FY26 PER of 28.2x.</li>
<li>The stock's highest justified valuation is a 20% premium to the sector average FY26F PER, implying only 8% upside from the IPO price, providing a limited safety margin.</li>
<li>We think it will only be attractive to price below the mid-point of the IPO range, that is, HK$14.10.</li>
</ul>


Although JD Industrials (7618 HK) is China's largest MRO player, its maximum IPO price of HK$15.5 implies a rich FY26 PER of 28.2x.
The stock's highest justified valuation is a 20% premium to the sector average FY26F PER, implying only 8% upside from the IPO price, providing a limited safety margin.
We think it will only be attractive to price below the mid-point of the IPO range, that is, HK$14.10.


JD Industrials (7618 HK) IPO: Only Attractive if Priced Cheaply

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jingdong-jd-industrials-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36875:1" rel="noopener">JD Industrials (7618 HK)</a> is now looking to raise up to US$421m, in its Hong Kong IPO.</li>
<li>JDI is a leading industrial supply chain technology and service provider in China in terms of GMV in each year during the Track Record Period, according to CIC.</li>
<li>We looked at the company’s past performance in our earlier notes. In this note, we talk about valuations.</li>
</ul>



JD Industrials (7618 HK) is now looking to raise up to US$421m, in its Hong Kong IPO.
JDI is a leading industrial supply chain technology and service provider in China in terms of GMV in each year during the Track Record Period, according to CIC.
We looked at the company’s past performance in our earlier notes. In this note, we talk about valuations.


JD Industrials IPO - Valuation Cut Means Its Priced to Go

HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

<ul>
<li>JD Industrials’ business model integrates the advantageous resources of JD Group and follows "self-operated heavy asset" route.The operation model is to rely on JD Logistics network to achieve efficient performance.</li>
<li>The platform's openness of JD Industrials is relatively limited. The entry and listing thresholds for merchants are higher than that of peers, which limits the rapid expansion of product richness.</li>
<li>P/S is more appropriate because net profit fluctuates greatly and is more suitable for growth-oriented supply chain companies.JD Industrials’ valuation could be higher than ZKH but lower than <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ww-grainger-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20019:1" rel="noopener">Ww Grainger.</a>   </li>
</ul>


JD Industrials’ business model integrates the advantageous resources of JD Group and follows "self-operated heavy asset" route.The operation model is to rely on JD Logistics network to achieve efficient performance.
The platform's openness of JD Industrials is relatively limited. The entry and listing thresholds for merchants are higher than that of peers, which limits the rapid expansion of product richness.
P/S is more appropriate because net profit fluctuates greatly and is more suitable for growth-oriented supply chain companies.JD Industrials’ valuation could be higher than ZKH but lower than Ww Grainger.   


Pre-IPO JD Industrials (PHIP Updates) - Business Model, Peer Comparison, Forecast and Valuation

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The precondition for the consortium’s privatisation offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ane-cayman-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35025:1" rel="noopener">ANE Cayman Inc (9956 HK)</a> has been satisfied. The right to increase the share alternative cap was also satisfied. </li>
<li>The consortium has until 12 December to decide whether to increase the share cap. The option helps the consortium gain support from shareholders who would not accept the cash offer. </li>
<li>The scheme vote remains low risk, as the offer is attractive relative to historical ranges and peer multiples. The de-rating of peers is also helpful. </li>
</ul>


The precondition for the consortium’s privatisation offer for ANE Cayman Inc (9956 HK) has been satisfied. The right to increase the share alternative cap was also satisfied. 
The consortium has until 12 December to decide whether to increase the share cap. The option helps the consortium gain support from shareholders who would not accept the cash offer. 
The scheme vote remains low risk, as the offer is attractive relative to historical ranges and peer multiples. The de-rating of peers is also helpful. 


Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analysed the earning revision of component stocks of HSI in the past month.</li>
<li>We tabulated stocks with the top impact on index's EPS, stocks' EPS revision, and revenue revision.</li>
<li>We highlighted EPS revision on HSBC, China Life, JD.COM, TRIP.COM, CCB, MEITUAN, China Life, Trip.Com, HSBC, Jd, CCB, Meituan.</li>
</ul>


We analysed the earning revision of component stocks of HSI in the past month.
We tabulated stocks with the top impact on index's EPS, stocks' EPS revision, and revenue revision.
We highlighted EPS revision on HSBC, China Life, JD.COM, TRIP.COM, CCB, MEITUAN, China Life, Trip.Com, HSBC, Jd, CCB, Meituan.


HSI Index Earning Revision (Nov): HSBC, China Life, JD.COM, TRIP.COM, CCB, MEITUAN, China Life

China

JD Logistics, Inc. offers logistics services. The Company provides cargo transportation, cargo distribution, warehousing, and other services. JD Logistics is located in China.

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JD Logistics (2618 HK)

JD Industrials (7618 HK) IPO: Only Attractive if Priced Cheaply

JD Industrials is China's largest MRO player, but its IPO price of HK$15.5 suggests a high valuation, limiting upside. To make it attractive, it...

Osbert Tang, CFA

JD Industrials IPO - Valuation Cut Means Its Priced to Go

JD Industrials (7618 HK) is now looking to raise up to US$421m, in its Hong Kong IPO. In this note, we talk about valuations.

Sumeet Singh

Pre-IPO JD Industrials (PHIP Updates) - Business Model, Peer Comparison, Forecast and Valuation

JD Industrials' business model integrates resources from JD Group, utilizing JD Logistics for efficiency.Higher entry thresholds may hinder...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

ANE (9956 HK): Precondition Satisfied

The vote remains low risk, as the offer is attractive. The de-rating of peers is also helpful. At last close, the gross/annualised spread was 5.5%...

Arun George

HSI Index Earning Revision (Nov): HSBC, China Life, JD.COM, TRIP.COM, CCB, MEITUAN, China Life

We analyzed HSI's consensus for Nov 2025 and highlighted changes of EPS in HSBC, China Life, JD.COM, TRIP.COM, CCB, MEITUAN, China Life, Trip.Com,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

JD Industrials (7618 HK) IPO: Only Attractive if Priced Cheaply

​JD Industrials is China's largest MRO player, but its IPO price of HK$15.5 suggests a high valuation, limiting upside. To make it attractive, it...

Osbert Tang, CFA

JD Industrials IPO - Valuation Cut Means Its Priced to Go

JD Industrials (7618 HK) is now looking to raise up to US$421m, in its Hong Kong IPO. In this note, we talk about valuations.

Sumeet Singh

Pre-IPO JD Industrials (PHIP Updates) - Business Model, Peer Comparison, Forecast and Valuation

​JD Industrials' business model integrates resources from JD Group, utilizing JD Logistics for efficiency.Higher entry thresholds may hinder...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

ANE (9956 HK): Precondition Satisfied

The vote remains low risk, as the offer is attractive. The de-rating of peers is also helpful. At last close, the gross/annualised spread was 5.5%...

Arun George

HSI Index Earning Revision (Nov): HSBC, China Life, JD.COM, TRIP.COM, CCB, MEITUAN, China Life

We analyzed HSI's consensus for Nov 2025 and highlighted changes of EPS in HSBC, China Life, JD.COM, TRIP.COM, CCB, MEITUAN, China Life, Trip.Com,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

JD Industrials is China's largest MRO player, but its IPO price of HK$15.5 suggests a high valuation, limiting upside. To make it attractive, it...

JD Industrials' business model integrates resources from JD Group, utilizing JD Logistics for efficiency.Higher entry thresholds may hinder...