Blue Lotus China New Economy Research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Eric Wen

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>ZTO US: Parcel volume remains strong in first week of Double 11 sales(+)</li>
<li>ZTO US: New single day parcel volume record achieved at start of Double 11 (+)</li>
<li>2618 HK: Cainiao delivery integrated on the JD platform. (/)</li>
</ul>


ZTO US: Parcel volume remains strong in first week of Double 11 sales(+)
ZTO US: New single day parcel volume record achieved at start of Double 11 (+)
2618 HK: Cainiao delivery integrated on the JD platform. (/)


[Blue Lotus Daily]:ZTO/2618HK/NIU/603529CH/1585HK/MNSO/300750CH/1211HK/ZLAB/BZ/1810HK/AAPL/NIO/XPEV

China New Economy Equity Analyst, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Robert McKay

China New Economy Equity Analyst

<ul>
<li>Following a year of pure low-price competition, e-commerce platforms are shifting towards providing better services to customers - the major focus of this upgrade has been logistics. </li>
<li>This shift has has manifested through (1) the opening of Taobao/Tmall's merchant back-end to JD Logistics, (2) the resurgence of O2O, and (3) algorithm weighting tilt towards higher-scoring merchants.</li>
<li>Amid this shift we prefer JD Logistics (2618 HK) followed by ZTO (ZTO US). We are most negative towards S.F. Holding (002352 CH) followed by J&amp;T Express (1519 HK).</li>
</ul>


Following a year of pure low-price competition, e-commerce platforms are shifting towards providing better services to customers - the major focus of this upgrade has been logistics. 
This shift has has manifested through (1) the opening of Taobao/Tmall's merchant back-end to JD Logistics, (2) the resurgence of O2O, and (3) algorithm weighting tilt towards higher-scoring merchants.
Amid this shift we prefer JD Logistics (2618 HK) followed by ZTO (ZTO US). We are most negative towards S.F. Holding (002352 CH) followed by J&amp;T Express (1519 HK).


Major Changes in China's Last-Mile Delivery Market: Who Wins, Who Loses?

<ul>
<li>Macro News Update: Weak Household Loan Data in September Highlights Urgency for Consumption Stimulus</li>
<li>Macro News Update : Scholars within China's government system indicates more incremental stimulus policies are on the way.</li>
<li>Macro News Update : Positive read thru on the Ministry of Finance press release(+)</li>
</ul>


Macro News Update: Weak Household Loan Data in September Highlights Urgency for Consumption Stimulus
Macro News Update : Scholars within China's government system indicates more incremental stimulus policies are on the way.
Macro News Update : Positive read thru on the Ministry of Finance press release(+)


[Blue Lotus Daily]:1810 HK/1211HK/LI US/NIO US/XPEV US/MNSO US/ATAT US/002352 CH/2618HK/ZTO US/Macro

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Capital Markets

SHEIN Global Holdings / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>For the last three years, SHEIN has consistently mis-handled political challenges in US, UK</li>
<li>Failure to anticipate and plan for these challenges hurt sales growth and SHEIN's valuation</li>
<li>SHEIN's stuggles speak directly to management's ability to identify risks and quickly adapt</li>
</ul>


For the last three years, SHEIN has consistently mis-handled political challenges in US, UK
Failure to anticipate and plan for these challenges hurt sales growth and SHEIN's valuation
SHEIN's stuggles speak directly to management's ability to identify risks and quickly adapt


SHEIN IPO in Hong Kong: Management Consistently Underestimated Headwinds, Harming Sales and IPO Plan

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>In H126 J&amp;T Global reported strong top-line growth of almost 40% Y/Y vs H125</li>
<li>Growth was broad-based, and core adj EBITDA margin also showed solid Y/Y improvement</li>
<li>Overall, a nice set of numbers from J&amp;T Global in H1, but stock isn't cheap here</li>
</ul>


In H126 J&amp;T Global reported strong top-line growth of almost 40% Y/Y vs H125
Growth was broad-based, and core adj EBITDA margin also showed solid Y/Y improvement
Overall, a nice set of numbers from J&amp;T Global in H1, but stock isn't cheap here


J&T Global Express H126 Results: Firing on All Cylinders (But Not Cheap)

China

JD Logistics is a technology-driven supply chain solutions and logistics services provider, offering warehousing, distribution, and express and freight delivery. It serves various industries including fast-moving consumer goods, apparel, and automotive. The company is headquartered in Beijing, China, and was founded in 2007.

Price Gauge
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JD Logistics (2618 HK)

[Blue Lotus Daily]:ZTO/2618HK/NIU/603529CH/1585HK/MNSO/300750CH/1211HK/ZLAB/BZ/1810HK/AAPL/NIO/XPEV

ZTO US sees strong parcel volume during Double 11 sales, while Cainiao delivery integrates with JD platform in 2618 HK.

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Major Changes in China's Last-Mile Delivery Market: Who Wins, Who Loses?

E-commerce platforms are prioritizing better customer service through logistics upgrades, with JD Logistics and ZTO as top picks and S.F. Holding...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Blue Lotus Daily]:1810 HK/1211HK/LI US/NIO US/XPEV US/MNSO US/ATAT US/002352 CH/2618HK/ZTO US/Macro

Household loan data in China highlights need for consumption stimulus; more incremental policies expected. Positive outlook on Ministry of Finance...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

SHEIN IPO in Hong Kong: Management Consistently Underestimated Headwinds, Harming Sales and IPO Plan

After the first market session in which SHEIN's share price didn't decline vs the previous session, we're resurfacing a few recent insights...

Tracking Traffic

J&T Global Express H126 Results: Firing on All Cylinders (But Not Cheap)

Strong growth from J&T Global in H126, with overall revenue up 40% and adj EBITDA up an impressive 68%. But shares appear to be trading on 20x FY26...

Tracking Traffic

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

[Blue Lotus Daily]:ZTO/2618HK/NIU/603529CH/1585HK/MNSO/300750CH/1211HK/ZLAB/BZ/1810HK/AAPL/NIO/XPEV

​ZTO US sees strong parcel volume during Double 11 sales, while Cainiao delivery integrates with JD platform in 2618 HK.

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Major Changes in China's Last-Mile Delivery Market: Who Wins, Who Loses?

​E-commerce platforms are prioritizing better customer service through logistics upgrades, with JD Logistics and ZTO as top picks and S.F. Holding...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Blue Lotus Daily]:1810 HK/1211HK/LI US/NIO US/XPEV US/MNSO US/ATAT US/002352 CH/2618HK/ZTO US/Macro

​Household loan data in China highlights need for consumption stimulus; more incremental policies expected. Positive outlook on Ministry of Finance...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

SHEIN IPO in Hong Kong: Management Consistently Underestimated Headwinds, Harming Sales and IPO Plan

After the first market session in which SHEIN's share price didn't decline vs the previous session, we're resurfacing a few recent insights...

Tracking Traffic

J&T Global Express H126 Results: Firing on All Cylinders (But Not Cheap)

Strong growth from J&T Global in H126, with overall revenue up 40% and adj EBITDA up an impressive 68%. But shares appear to be trading on 20x FY26...

Tracking Traffic

ZTO US sees strong parcel volume during Double 11 sales, while Cainiao delivery integrates with JD platform in 2618 HK.

E-commerce platforms are prioritizing better customer service through logistics upgrades, with JD Logistics and ZTO as top picks and S.F. Holding...

Household loan data in China highlights need for consumption stimulus; more incremental policies expected. Positive outlook on Ministry of Finance...