Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Four days into life as a publicly-traded company, SHEIN shares are down more than 21%</li>
<li>If OP margin remains depressed in FY27, it appears SHEIN is still trading ~18x forward EPS</li>
<li>However, even a modest OP margin lift next year implies a PER of just 11-14x</li>
</ul>


Four days into life as a publicly-traded company, SHEIN shares are down more than 21%
If OP margin remains depressed in FY27, it appears SHEIN is still trading ~18x forward EPS
However, even a modest OP margin lift next year implies a PER of just 11-14x


SHEIN IPO in Hong Kong: Has OP Margin Bottomed? If It Has, SHEIN Is Approaching Value

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Eric Wen

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>1810 HK/1211 HK/LI US/NIO US/XPEV US: EV sales were strong in the 25th week of 2024, with several brands reaching new highs (/////////)</li>
<li>ATAT US:The first Atour Hotel 4.0 opens in Xi'an. (+)</li>
<li>Ministry of Commerce: Mainland China will increase the tax-free allowance for luggage carried by resident travelers entering from Hong Kong and Macao</li>
</ul>


1810 HK/1211 HK/LI US/NIO US/XPEV US: EV sales were strong in the 25th week of 2024, with several brands reaching new highs (/////////)
ATAT US:The first Atour Hotel 4.0 opens in Xi'an. (+)
Ministry of Commerce: Mainland China will increase the tax-free allowance for luggage carried by resident travelers entering from Hong Kong and Macao


[Blue Lotus Daily]:1810HK/1211HK/LI/NIO /XPEV/ATAT/2352CH/BEKE/2618HK/2352SZ/ZTO/1519HK/981HK/9699HK

HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Capital Markets

Annto Logistics Supply Chain Technology / Equity Capital Markets

Annto Logistics Supply Chain Technology (ANNTO HK)

<ul>
<li>Based on the 20-year manufacturing supply chain management experience of Midea, Annto has deeply understood the pain points in manufacturing such as production rhythm, inventory management, and channel distribution.</li>
<li>A slight decrease in revenue or a slight increase in costs that cannot be passed on could have disproportionately negative impact on Annto’s profitability and could lead to net loss.</li>
<li>Profit margin of JD Logistics is higher than Annto. The scale of JD Logistics is approximately 10 times of Annto. So, we think Annto’s valuation would be lower than JD Logistics.</li>
</ul>


Based on the 20-year manufacturing supply chain management experience of Midea, Annto has deeply understood the pain points in manufacturing such as production rhythm, inventory management, and channel distribution.
A slight decrease in revenue or a slight increase in costs that cannot be passed on could have disproportionately negative impact on Annto’s profitability and could lead to net loss.
Profit margin of JD Logistics is higher than Annto. The scale of JD Logistics is approximately 10 times of Annto. So, we think Annto’s valuation would be lower than JD Logistics.


Pre-IPO Annto Supply Chain Technology - About the Business, Forecast, and Thoughts on Valuation

Blue Lotus Non US Internet research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Ying Pan

Blue Lotus Non US Internet research

<ul>
<li>700 HK:&lt;DnF Mobile&gt; officially launched today, with good first-day performance.（+）</li>
<li>JD US/AAPL US/1810 HK: iPhone prices cut by 20%+ for 6.18 shopping festival (+/-/-)</li>
<li>JD US/2618 HK/BABA US/PDD US/VIPS US: JD begins cracking down on “big enterprise disease” through layoffs and stricter corporate culture (+/+/-/-/-)</li>
</ul>


700 HK:&lt;DnF Mobile&gt; officially launched today, with good first-day performance.（+）
JD US/AAPL US/1810 HK: iPhone prices cut by 20%+ for 6.18 shopping festival (+/-/-)
JD US/2618 HK/BABA US/PDD US/VIPS US: JD begins cracking down on “big enterprise disease” through layoffs and stricter corporate culture (+/+/-/-/-)


[Blue Lotus Daily - TMT Update]:700 HK/JD US/AAPL US/1810 HK/2618 HK/BABA US/PDD US/VIPS US/3690 HK

SHEIN Global Holdings / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>In this insight we analyze SHEIN's Marketing expenses, which rose sharply in FY25 and Q126</li>
<li>We also revisit SHEIN's Fulfilment expenses, which likely ballooned in Q226 on higher fuel</li>
<li>We believe high and rising Marketing, Fulfilment expenses to smother FY26 margins</li>
</ul>


In this insight we analyze SHEIN's Marketing expenses, which rose sharply in FY25 and Q126
We also revisit SHEIN's Fulfilment expenses, which likely ballooned in Q226 on higher fuel
We believe high and rising Marketing, Fulfilment expenses to smother FY26 margins


SHEIN IPO in Hong Kong: Examining Marketing Expense Trend | Fulfilment Expense in Q226 Likely Spiked

China

JD Logistics is a technology-driven supply chain solutions and logistics services provider, offering warehousing, distribution, and express and freight delivery. It serves various industries including fast-moving consumer goods, apparel, and automotive. The company is headquartered in Beijing, China, and was founded in 2007.

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JD Logistics (2618 HK)

SHEIN IPO in Hong Kong: Has OP Margin Bottomed? If It Has, SHEIN Is Approaching Value

If a potential drop in fuel prices in FY27 lifts core margins up to around 4% next year, it appears SHEIN could be trading below 14x forward PER.

Tracking Traffic

[Blue Lotus Daily]:1810HK/1211HK/LI/NIO /XPEV/ATAT/2352CH/BEKE/2618HK/2352SZ/ZTO/1519HK/981HK/9699HK

EV sales surge in 25th week of 2024, Atour Hotel 4.0 opens in Xi'an, China raises tax-free allowance for resident travelers from Hong Kong and Macao.

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Pre-IPO Annto Supply Chain Technology - About the Business, Forecast, and Thoughts on Valuation

Annto has deeply understood the pain points in manufacturing, but low profit margin makes Annto unable to withstand any negative fluctuation....

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

[Blue Lotus Daily - TMT Update]:700 HK/JD US/AAPL US/1810 HK/2618 HK/BABA US/PDD US/VIPS US/3690 HK

New mobile game DnF Mobile has successful launch in HK, iPhone prices slashed for shopping festival, JD cracks down on "big enterprise disease"...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

SHEIN IPO in Hong Kong: Examining Marketing Expense Trend | Fulfilment Expense in Q226 Likely Spiked

In its first day of trading on September 1, SHEIN's shares closed down 0.1% in Hong Kong after initially falling close to 10%. We're re-surfacing a...

Tracking Traffic

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

SHEIN IPO in Hong Kong: Has OP Margin Bottomed? If It Has, SHEIN Is Approaching Value

If a potential drop in fuel prices in FY27 lifts core margins up to around 4% next year, it appears SHEIN could be trading below 14x forward PER.

Tracking Traffic

[Blue Lotus Daily]:1810HK/1211HK/LI/NIO /XPEV/ATAT/2352CH/BEKE/2618HK/2352SZ/ZTO/1519HK/981HK/9699HK

​EV sales surge in 25th week of 2024, Atour Hotel 4.0 opens in Xi'an, China raises tax-free allowance for resident travelers from Hong Kong and Macao.

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Pre-IPO Annto Supply Chain Technology - About the Business, Forecast, and Thoughts on Valuation

Annto has deeply understood the pain points in manufacturing, but low profit margin makes Annto unable to withstand any negative fluctuation....

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

[Blue Lotus Daily - TMT Update]:700 HK/JD US/AAPL US/1810 HK/2618 HK/BABA US/PDD US/VIPS US/3690 HK

​New mobile game DnF Mobile has successful launch in HK, iPhone prices slashed for shopping festival, JD cracks down on "big enterprise disease"...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

SHEIN IPO in Hong Kong: Examining Marketing Expense Trend | Fulfilment Expense in Q226 Likely Spiked

In its first day of trading on September 1, SHEIN's shares closed down 0.1% in Hong Kong after initially falling close to 10%. We're re-surfacing a...

Tracking Traffic

EV sales surge in 25th week of 2024, Atour Hotel 4.0 opens in Xi'an, China raises tax-free allowance for resident travelers from Hong Kong and Macao.

New mobile game DnF Mobile has successful launch in HK, iPhone prices slashed for shopping festival, JD cracks down on "big enterprise disease"...