Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>In Q423 JD Logistics booked 10% top-line growth &amp; solid margin improvement</li>
<li>We analyze the impacts of JD.com &amp; Deppon Logistics on JD Logistics' Q423</li>
<li>Given still-low profitability, JD Logistics does not appear cheap, in our view</li>
</ul>


In Q423 JD Logistics booked 10% top-line growth &amp; solid margin improvement
We analyze the impacts of JD.com &amp; Deppon Logistics on JD Logistics' Q423
Given still-low profitability, JD Logistics does not appear cheap, in our view


Analyzing the Roles Parent JD.com & Subsidiary Deppon Played in JD Logistics' Q423 Results

Forensic Analyst

Jason Yap, CFA

Forensic Accounting

In Q1 2021, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-com-inc-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:446:1" rel="noopener">JD.com Inc (ADR) (JD US)</a> reported strong topline growth (+39% yoy) that exceeded consensus expectations mainly due to strong user growth (+29% yoy), with more than 500 million reported Annual Active Users (AAU).  Out of which, 80% new active users came from lower tier cities, which reflects JD's strategy shift to target the fast growing lower tier markets (下沉市场) through its newly formed Jingxi business group. 
As JD continues its transition from the largest retail company in China (by revenue) to a supply chain-based technology and service provider, we can likely expect a moderated revenue growth for its core JD Retail business and incremental investments in New Initiatives and its logistics and fulfillment capabilities, with a key focus on Jingxi.
In Q1 2021, JD announced that Jingxi related businesses, will be carved out from JD Retail and reported under the New Businesses segment.  Having grown to a certain size, the change in reporting segment is not a jingxi or surprise. Instead, JD has been telegraphing the growing role of Jingxi and, more broadly, the moderating pace of growth of its core businesses in mature markets during recent quarter-end earnings calls and in related disclosures.   
This article discusses how to analyse earnings calls and disclosures using a forensic approach, with a view to gain relevant insights on JD's future prospects.

In Q1 2021, JD.com Inc (ADR) (JD US) reported strong topline growth (+39% yoy) that exceeded consensus expectations mainly due to strong user growth (+29% yoy), with more than 500 million reported Annual Active Users (AAU).  Out of which, 80% new active users came from lower tier cities, which reflects JD's strategy shift to target the fast growing lower tier markets (下沉市场) through its newly formed Jingxi business group. 
As JD continues its transition from the largest retail company in China (by revenue) to a supply chain-based technology and service provider, we can likely expect a moderated revenue growth for its core JD Retail business and incremental investments in New Initiatives and its logistics and fulfillment capabilities, with a key focus on Jingxi.
In Q1 2021, JD announced that Jingxi related businesses, will be carved out from JD Retail and reported under the New Businesses segment.  Having grown to a certain size, the change in reporting segment is not a jingxi or surprise. Instead, JD has been telegraphing the growing role of Jingxi and, more broadly, the moderating pace of growth of its core businesses in mature markets during recent quarter-end earnings calls and in related disclosures.   
This article discusses how to analyse earnings calls and disclosures using a forensic approach, with a view to gain relevant insights on JD's future prospects. 

JD - Analysing Earnings Calls and Disclosures Using a Forensic Approach

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>J&amp;T Global Express, a global logistics provider, raised about US$500m in its Hong Kong IPO in Oct 2023. Its pre-IPO investors will be released from its IPO linked lockup soon.</li>
<li>As per Frost &amp; Sullivan (F&amp;S), the firm is the leading express delivery business in Southeast Asia, with a 25.4% market share as per 2023 parcel volume.</li>
<li>In this note, we talk about the upcoming lock-up expiry and possible deal dynamics.</li>
</ul>


J&amp;T Global Express, a global logistics provider, raised about US$500m in its Hong Kong IPO in Oct 2023. Its pre-IPO investors will be released from its IPO linked lockup soon.
As per Frost &amp; Sullivan (F&amp;S), the firm is the leading express delivery business in Southeast Asia, with a 25.4% market share as per 2023 parcel volume.
In this note, we talk about the upcoming lock-up expiry and possible deal dynamics.


J&T Global Express IPO Lock-Up Expiry - Tiny Float with 87%+ Stake Lockup Release Worth >US$8.8bn

Overseas Chinese Equities, Aequitas Research

Ming Lu

Overseas Chinese Equities

<ul>
<li>In 2Q23, total revenue grew by 31% YoY and revenue from external customers grew by 56% YoY.</li>
<li>The operating margin can still breakeven during the rapid growth.</li>
<li>We believe the stock has an upside of 70% for yearend 2024. Buy.</li>
</ul>


In 2Q23, total revenue grew by 31% YoY and revenue from external customers grew by 56% YoY.
The operating margin can still breakeven during the rapid growth.
We believe the stock has an upside of 70% for yearend 2024. Buy.


JD Logistics (2618 HK): 2Q23, External Revenue Still Grew Rapidly, 70% Upside

China/Asia TMT

Shawn Yang

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

<ul>
<li>We expect JDL to report C2Q23 revenue and non-IFRS net profit margin (1.5%) and 0.4ppts vs. consensus. We expect 2Q revenue (excl. Deppon) to grow 5%~ YoY .</li>
<li>JDL is facing increasing competition from (1) the recent launch of Cainiao’s high-end delivery service, (2) improved ZTO service, and (2) Douyin’s actions to increasingly in-source logistics.</li>
<li>We maintain JDL's SELL rating but raise its TP to HK$ 9.4, as we expect JDL will lower staffing costs, and by reducing staff redundancy.</li>
</ul>


We expect JDL to report C2Q23 revenue and non-IFRS net profit margin (1.5%) and 0.4ppts vs. consensus. We expect 2Q revenue (excl. Deppon) to grow 5%~ YoY .
JDL is facing increasing competition from (1) the recent launch of Cainiao’s high-end delivery service, (2) improved ZTO service, and (2) Douyin’s actions to increasingly in-source logistics.
We maintain JDL's SELL rating but raise its TP to HK$ 9.4, as we expect JDL will lower staffing costs, and by reducing staff redundancy.


[JD Logistics (2618 HK, SELL, TP HK$9.4) TP Change]: Premium Parcel Delivery Is Increasingly Crowded

China

JD Logistics, Inc. offers logistics services. The Company provides cargo transportation, cargo distribution, warehousing, and other services. JD Logistics is located in China.

JD Logistics (2618 HK)

Analyzing the Roles Parent JD.com & Subsidiary Deppon Played in JD Logistics' Q423 Results

JD Logistics reported +10% top-line growth in Q423, and strong improvements in margins. In this insight we look at the dynamics between JD...

Tracking Traffic

JD - Analysing Earnings Calls and Disclosures Using a Forensic Approach

JD has at times revised disclosures possibly to conceal growth or margin weakness. We discuss how to analyse earnings calls and disclosures using a...

Jason Yap, CFA

J&T Global Express IPO Lock-Up Expiry - Tiny Float with 87%+ Stake Lockup Release Worth >US$8.8bn

J&T Global Express' IPO linked lockup expired over the weeked. The stock has been correcting over the past few weeks, especially with the CCASS...

Sumeet Singh