Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>SF Hldg had <em>slowest</em> Q125 revenue growth among China-listed express companies, STO <em>fastest</em>
</li>
<li>Only these two express firms reported margin expansion in Q125 -- how'd they do it?</li>
<li>Q125 results suggest two very different paths toward improved express profitability</li>
</ul>


SF Hldg had slowest Q125 revenue growth among China-listed express companies, STO fastest

Only these two express firms reported margin expansion in Q125 -- how'd they do it?
Q125 results suggest two very different paths toward improved express profitability


Chinese Express: SF, STO Enjoyed Margin Expansion in Q125; YTO, Yunda Saw Margins Contract

<ul>
<li>March and Q125 parcel volume growth slowed only slightly vs strong Q424 and FY24</li>
<li>Single-Digit unit price declines should be manageable for most of the express companies</li>
<li>But express "story" generally unexciting, and most shares should continue to lag Alibaba</li>
</ul>


March and Q125 parcel volume growth slowed only slightly vs strong Q424 and FY24
Single-Digit unit price declines should be manageable for most of the express companies
But express "story" generally unexciting, and most shares should continue to lag Alibaba


Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | March, Q125 Growth Solid | But Shares Lag Alibaba (April 2025)

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Douglas Research Advisory

<ul>
<li>In the past week, one of the biggest stories in the Korean e-commerce/logistics market has been the entrance of JD Logistics into the South Korean market.</li>
<li>We believe that the ongoing tariff war between the US and China is likely to have accelerated this move by JD Logistics to find new markets for its products. </li>
<li>If JD.com/JD Logistics decide to expand aggressively in Korea, the major Korean e-commerce players (such as Coupang (CPNG US), Naver Corp (035420 KS), Gmarket, and 11st) may be negatively impacted.</li>
</ul>


In the past week, one of the biggest stories in the Korean e-commerce/logistics market has been the entrance of JD Logistics into the South Korean market.
We believe that the ongoing tariff war between the US and China is likely to have accelerated this move by JD Logistics to find new markets for its products. 
If JD.com/JD Logistics decide to expand aggressively in Korea, the major Korean e-commerce players (such as Coupang (CPNG US), Naver Corp (035420 KS), Gmarket, and 11st) may be negatively impacted.


JD Logistics Enters South Korea: Accelerated by Tariff War Between China and the US?

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dada-nexus-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28961:1" rel="noopener">Dada Nexus (DADA US)</a> disclosed a binding proposal from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-com-inc-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:446:1" rel="noopener">JD.com Inc (ADR) (JD US)</a> at US$2.00 per ADS, a 41.8% premium to the undisturbed price of US$1.41 (24 January).</li>
<li>The shareholder vote is low-risk (two-thirds voting threshold), as JD.com represents 63.2% of voting power. The dissenting condition (less than 12% of outstanding shares) is waivable. </li>
<li>Although the offer is unattractive, this is a done deal. The transaction is expected to close within the third quarter of 2025.</li>
</ul>



Dada Nexus (DADA US) disclosed a binding proposal from JD.com Inc (ADR) (JD US) at US$2.00 per ADS, a 41.8% premium to the undisturbed price of US$1.41 (24 January).
The shareholder vote is low-risk (two-thirds voting threshold), as JD.com represents 63.2% of voting power. The dissenting condition (less than 12% of outstanding shares) is waivable. 
Although the offer is unattractive, this is a done deal. The transaction is expected to close within the third quarter of 2025.


Dada Nexus (DADA US): JD.com’s Binding Offer a Done Deal

<ul>
<li>By some measures, combined Jan-Feb volume growth slowed vs recent trend growth rates</li>
<li>Volume leader ZTO rejoining volume share game in FY25, -ive implications for pricing?</li>
<li>With concerns about mainstream price growing, we continue to favor only SF Holding</li>
</ul>


By some measures, combined Jan-Feb volume growth slowed vs recent trend growth rates
Volume leader ZTO rejoining volume share game in FY25, -ive implications for pricing?
With concerns about mainstream price growing, we continue to favor only SF Holding


Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | Volume, Price Trends | ZTO Rejoins Volume Game | (March 2025)

China

JD Logistics is a technology-driven supply chain solutions and logistics services provider, offering warehousing, distribution, and express and freight delivery. It serves various industries including fast-moving consumer goods, apparel, and automotive. The company is headquartered in Beijing, China, and was founded in 2007.

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JD Logistics (2618 HK)

Chinese Express: SF, STO Enjoyed Margin Expansion in Q125; YTO, Yunda Saw Margins Contract

Chinese express companies SF Holding and STO Express followed two very disparate paths to Op Inc margin expansion in Q1 2025

Tracking Traffic

Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | March, Q125 Growth Solid | But Shares Lag Alibaba (April 2025)

In March and Q125, express volume growth remained firm, and unit price declines should be manageable for most express companies. But as an...

Tracking Traffic

JD Logistics Enters South Korea: Accelerated by Tariff War Between China and the US?

In the past week, one of the biggest stories in the Korean e-commerce/logistics market has been the entrance of JD Logistics into the South Korean...

Douglas Kim

Dada Nexus (DADA US): JD.com’s Binding Offer a Done Deal

Although the offer is unattractive, this is a done deal. The transaction is expected to close within the third quarter of 2025.

Arun George

Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | Volume, Price Trends | ZTO Rejoins Volume Game | (March 2025)

Combined January-February parcel volume growth moderated, but it's too early to say this is a departure from trend. We're now more concerned about...

Tracking Traffic

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