Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Capital Markets

Lalatech Holdings Co Ltd / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>In an updated HKEX filing posted on September 28th, Lalatech disclosed H123 financial results</li>
<li>Solid Revenue growth plus sharp expense reductions led to +28 ppt OP margin expansion</li>
<li>Is this progress sustainable, defendable? Lalatech management needs to explain gains</li>
</ul>


In an updated HKEX filing posted on September 28th, Lalatech disclosed H123 financial results
Solid Revenue growth plus sharp expense reductions led to +28 ppt OP margin expansion
Is this progress sustainable, defendable? Lalatech management needs to explain gains


Lalatech IPO: New Filing's H123 P&L Shows Impressive Growth, Unanswered Questions

<ul>
<li>Lalatech's largest segment by revenue -- Chinese intra-city on-demand freight -- features many of the attributes that are attractive to online logistics intermediaries</li>
<li>At the top of the list of red flags in its prospectus is Lalatech's company's dramatic 71% Y/Y reduction in Sales and Marketing expenses last year</li>
<li>Although Lalatech appears to be the leading platform for Chinese intra-city on-demand freight matching, the company faces 'hidden' competition from several larger groups</li>
</ul>


Lalatech's largest segment by revenue -- Chinese intra-city on-demand freight -- features many of the attributes that are attractive to online logistics intermediaries
At the top of the list of red flags in its prospectus is Lalatech's company's dramatic 71% Y/Y reduction in Sales and Marketing expenses last year
Although Lalatech appears to be the leading platform for Chinese intra-city on-demand freight matching, the company faces 'hidden' competition from several larger groups


TRACKING TRAFFIC/Lalatech IPO: Attractive Segment | 'Unbelievable' Cost Control | Hidden Competition

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Headline February numbers look pretty good -- but they're misleading</li>
<li>On a combined basis, January-February data show ASPs still under pressure</li>
<li>Recent results from ZTO and J&amp;T Global have been unimpressive, in our view</li>
</ul>


Headline February numbers look pretty good -- but they're misleading
On a combined basis, January-February data show ASPs still under pressure
Recent results from ZTO and J&amp;T Global have been unimpressive, in our view


Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | ASPs Still Under Pressure | Weaker X-Border Volume? | (March 2024)

<ul>
<li>Organic growth in J&amp;T's China operations exceeded that of peers...</li>
<li>...but the implosion of New Markets and X-Border is a shock</li>
<li>Lower margins from SE Asian cash cow also a surprise, in our view</li>
</ul>


Organic growth in J&amp;T's China operations exceeded that of peers...
...but the implosion of New Markets and X-Border is a shock
Lower margins from SE Asian cash cow also a surprise, in our view


The Three Biggest Surprises in J&T Global Express' Maiden Earnings Report

<ul>
<li>In Q423, ZTO's parcel volumes grew by +32% Y/Y, faster than market growth</li>
<li>But weak pricing resulted in EPS growth of just +2% Y/Y in the period</li>
<li>In FY24, management expects parcel growth to roughly halve - AVOID</li>
</ul>


In Q423, ZTO's parcel volumes grew by +32% Y/Y, faster than market growth
But weak pricing resulted in EPS growth of just +2% Y/Y in the period
In FY24, management expects parcel growth to roughly halve - AVOID


ZTO Express Q423 Results & Guidance in One Simple Table | +32% Volume --> +2% EPS?! | AVOID

China

JD Logistics, Inc. offers logistics services. The Company provides cargo transportation, cargo distribution, warehousing, and other services. JD Logistics is located in China.

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JD Logistics (2618 HK)

Lalatech IPO: New Filing's H123 P&L Shows Impressive Growth, Unanswered Questions

For us, the most urgent questions for Lalatech still revolve around its "incredible" progress on cost control and how the company will successfully...

Tracking Traffic

TRACKING TRAFFIC/Lalatech IPO: Attractive Segment | 'Unbelievable' Cost Control | Hidden Competition

Chinese intra-city freight platform Lalatech has once again filed to list its shares in Hong Kong, after an earlier filing from September 2023...

Tracking Traffic

Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | ASPs Still Under Pressure | Weaker X-Border Volume? | (March 2024)

On a combined basis, January-February numbers show ground parcel ASPs still falling by over 10% Y/Y. YTD, we see a clear slowdown in X-border...

Tracking Traffic

The Three Biggest Surprises in J&T Global Express' Maiden Earnings Report

Stronger-than-expected China revenue, worsening performance of 'Other', and declining SE Asian margins are the three biggest surprises we see in...

Tracking Traffic

ZTO Express Q423 Results & Guidance in One Simple Table | +32% Volume --> +2% EPS?! | AVOID

ZTO managed to convert +32% volume growth in Q423 into just +2% EPS growth. Looking at 2024, management expects volume growth to slow dramatically.

Tracking Traffic

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